Unleash your inner Nostradamus! The 2014 Election Prediction thread

All right, Wordforge, it's time for the 2014 Election Prediction thread! Here's how it works: Just answer each of these questions before the 2014 midterms are over.

• How many seats will each party control in the House of Representatives? (Total must equal 435.)
• How many seats will each party control in the Senate? (Total must equal 100.)
• Tiebreaker #1: What percentage of the vote will Gov. Scott Walker win in Wisconsin?
• Tiebreaker #2: What percentage of the vote will supporters of Alaska's marijuana legalization measure achieve?

Here are the rules:

• You must make your final prediction by 7 a.m. Eastern Time on Election Day, but you may change your prediction at any time up until then.
• To adjust for the difference in size between the House and the Senate, a multiplier of 4.35 will be applied to the Senate.
• Independents will be counted as members of the party with which they choose to caucus. Thus, unless they change their minds, Angus King and Bernie Sanders will be counted as Democrats. Greg Orman in Kansas has indicated he will likely caucus with whichever party has the majority.

The winner will receive a one-year pass good for transit on any urban light rail system in the country donated by @evenflow, a lifetime membership in Future Farmers of America donated by @Ancalagon, an autographed copy of "Strangers from the Sky" and a pair of Birkenstocks donated by Skrain Dukat, a collection of the Complete Works of J.J. Abrams donated by @Dayton3, a Bible that once belonged to Pat Robertson donated by @Diacanu, and a membership in the Women's Christian Temperance Union donated by @enlisted person.

Here's the 2012 thread.

Aaaaannnnnnnnd ... GO!

I feel confident in saying that we're fucked no matter what happens this November.

In the House:

The false campaign concealing maddness
will cause the House to change its rules.
From the mole state there will go forth a man who wants
the edict withdrawn, changing money and standards.

In the Senate:

The Irishman will soon come to his high realm,
Putting behind a little the complainers:
The pale grey one, the male from the guilded desert.
The fearful lobby and Barbaric terror
will challenge his rule and his kingdom.

In Wisconsin:

The horrible cheese which is being aged in the North,
The following year after election will come the pestilence
So very horrible that young, old, nor drunk with beer
Will see a victory, as the Patriots and Vikings Raid unchecked.

In Alaska:

The sons of Marley will make a second butcher's bench
which will support those of the soil.
Two of the seven infants will disappear
And the rest will march against Alba.

Republicans will win a slim majority in the senate due to low voter turn out and wide spread voter suppression. Like in 2004 their victory will be short lived as they'll push hard right thus pissing people off plus tthe voter suppression will ultimately be their down fall as it taints their brand for decades to come.

Eventully, in the not to distant future, they will run out of old white men and pretend they just don't understand why no one else will vote for them. They are going to so alienate latinos that in 10 to 20 years they will be almost as rock solid as blacks when it comes to voting for dems. Asians will be close behind.

You might as well hand me the prizes now. My quatrains nailed it, as will be obvious come November.

They also apply to the 2024 election cycle and the Italian parliament in 2046, plus the Unified European pan-Arabic by-elections in 2095.

A doctor in the senate will announce he is running for President by this time next year. A former secretary of state will do the same.

Republicans barely squeek by and win the Senate. In Florida for Governor it's a tossup that plays out late in the night thanks to broward and miami dade county's usual ineptitude with releasing election results. One of these days the dems down there there will learn how to count votes like everyone else can.

Did somebody say mid-term erection? Damn the luck....I will not have sex with that woman!

I predict that there will be many painful, cookie-cutter political ads that will make me want to introduce everyone involved to various implements of extreme physical pain.

I predict nothing.

My prediction:

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

I agree. But when the whites die off who will pay for the blacks, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans? It's a legit question! Notice I left the Asians out. They actually want to work.

The whites won't die off but the old whites will and with them the appeal of the Republicans racist wedge politics. As for the economy... Something tells me it will be just fine without the Republican pack of lies.

Republicans racist wedge politics?

BEST BAND EVAR!

How many seats will each party control in the House of Representatives/Senate?



TOO DAMN MANY!!!

One day left! If you want to register your predictions, here are the blanks to fill out.

How many seats will each party control in the House of Representatives? (Total must equal 435.)
How many seats will each party control in the Senate? (Total must equal 100.)
Tiebreaker #1: What percentage of the vote will Gov. Scott Walker win in Wisconsin?
Tiebreaker #2: What percentage of the vote will supporters of Alaska's marijuana legalization measure achieve?

House: 241 R 194 D
Senate 52 R 48D
Walker: 50.2%
AKMJ: 48%

Are the prizes real? Cause I'd love a year's worth of Muni/BART FastPasses.

House: 238 R, 197 D
Senate: 51 R, 49 D
Walker: 48%
Potheads: 45%

House 273R, 152D
Senate 54 R, 46 D
Walker 50%
Weed 44%

The Senate numbers are based on Nate Silver, whose odds are pretty good for a Republican Senate pickup of 8 to 9 seats, with a 7 percent change of picking up 10 seats. Assuming 9 seats flip in the Senate, my House numbers are based on 2010 where the Republicans picked up 6 Senate Seats and 63 House seats. None of those Senate seats are in play in this election (it's only been 4 years, not six), and if this election is seeing 1.5 times the pickup of 2010 then the House pickup would be 94 seats - from the 179 seats the Republicans held in 2010.

ETA: If you apply the same formula to Silver's most likely outcome of 8 Senate seats picked up by Republicans, then you get 263 R, 162 D in the House.

As real as a Cardassian data rod.

Nine more hours to lock in your picks!

Senate 56 Republicans-44 Democrats

House 240 Republicans-195 Democrats

I think you've got outdated data from Silver. They're saying 52 or 53 GOP in the Senate is most likely. No way the Republicans get to 273 in the house.

The dems chances have really been sinking fast in recent weeks according to the polls and folks are predicting one of the lowest turn out elections in living memory.

My prediction is repubs getting 53 in the senate and gain nine in the house. Dems have been spineless, as usual, so I can't blame people not bothering to show up and vote.

Walker will win with 51% of the vote with terrible turn out while legalization just barely fails in Alaska with 48.5% of the vote. Yes, I pulled both numbers out of my ass.

Last week the Daily KOS had the Republicans nearing 300 in the House, with a 70 seat pickup. But of course they were delusional about Democrat chances.

70 seat pick up?

House - 244 Republicans - 191 Democrats
Senate - 52 Republicans - 48 Democrats
Walker - 51.5%
Marijuana - 47%