Seattle continues efforts to kill jobs...

I love how the wing nuts called it the "Porkulus" when it was mostly tax cuts and most of the rest was aid to states so they could extend unemployment. Hardly pork at all.

My goodness! It's almost as if paying and treating workers decently will have positive results.

The effect of minimum wage seems fairly small either way at least for a modest increase. Other factors seem to be much larger influences.

I am still generally against minimum wages as what works for Seattle likely won't work in rural areas. If you are going to do it at all city level seems about right.

Meanwhile, in Oregon:
http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/oregon_house_passes_minimum_wa.html#incart_2box

Wonder how it'll affect union wages at stores like Fred Meyer

That seems rather complicated with three different minimum wages (urban, suburban, and rural) but at least they are trying to take the economic realities of different parts of the state into account.

The largest over-the-year percentage increase in employment among the metropolitan divisions occurred in Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. (+3.9 percent), followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving, and Haverhill-Newburyport-Amesbury Town, Mass.-N.H. (+3.8 percent each).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf

Paid Sick Leave
Highest in Nation Minimum Wage
Secure Scheduling

The fuck is it going to take to kill some mother fucking jobs?!?!? They're breeding like rabbits out here!!!



(these stats are for the MSA and County respectfully, but there is no evidence the city is dragging, in the opposite)

If I didn't like sunshine and rear wheel drive vehicle so much, I'd have moved to Seattle by now.

Has the cost been passed on to consumers?

But in an analysis of area prices over time, done through a combination of “web scraping” and in-person visits to grocery stores, restaurants and other retail locations, such price increases were not in evidence.

“Our preliminary analysis of grocery, retail and rent prices has found little or no evidence of price increases in Seattle relative to the surrounding area,” the team concluded.

http://www.washington.edu/news/2016...prices-minimal-one-year-after-implementation/

Don't.

lagging indicator

Beautiful, sunny day here.

Can't tell b/c it's a cell phone pic, but the Olympics are out across the Sound.

Looks nice. I hope the next hour of sun on Venus in 2023 is just as beautiful

[/Ray Bradbury reference]

So an interesting dynamic has developed. Since all the doom and gloom that Volpy and other Faith Based Economics adherents predicted totally failed to materialize, some of the stuff was wrapped into a statewide ballot measure (paid sick leave and $13.50 minimum wage by 2020) and put them on last November's ballot.

https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_Minimum_Wage_Increase,_Initiative_1433_(2016)

Won by almost 8 points. Now Seattle is looking at paid family leave. In order to preempt Seattle from going alone (and so stop there being a patchwork of different maternity/paternity laws across the state) and to get a say (b/c once Seattle shows again it won't be the end of the world, progressives will write another statewide ballot measure that will likely pass) business is putting pressure on the legislature (including R controlled Senate!) to handle the issue. While the Republican version isn't nearly as pro-worker as the Dem it is still a hell of a lot better than the status quo. The compromise once worked out will likely be even better.

http://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-policies-are-new-front-for-labor-supporters/

Surely the total economic collapse will come any minute now.

It has collapsed just like trumpcare won. As long as you say it happened trumptards don't care. It is not like they can see anything but Russia from their backyards.

With Boeing moving HQ to Chicago Seattle's demise is imminent. Well that and my leaving town twice: once in 1968 and again in 1995.

Looks like you took that from the hill just above the new aqueduct. By the way we've had waaaaay too much Seattle type weather in Boise for the past few weeks. Seattle's a great place but I like Boise's weather a lot better. Will you guys please keep that weather? Thank you.

Me waiting for Seattle's economy to fail:

It is not that the economy fails, it is just that entry level jobs get a lot harder to find and a lot of low margin undercapitalized businesses end up failing. Those are your mom & pop type restaurants and what not. We are seeing that here today in San Diego where there has been four minimum wage hikes in three years and several more on the way to $15 by 2021.

Last month one of my favorite Irish brew pubs went belly up despite booming business and being at the same location for 30 years. The owner just said enough and decided to move to North Carolina. When the minimum wage goes up $1 other costs go up $1.50. The national chains can survive that but the mom and pops often cannot especially when you keep hitting them over and over. Next comes the darth of new start ups as it now costs more and more just to open a place.

It is not good economic policy if you want local small business creation.

"Darth"?

http://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/the-bitter-lesson-from-seattles-minimum-wage-hike/

From last year but still highly educational. A study done by the University of Washington and commissioned by the city of Seattle showed decreases on total employment vs leaving the minimum wage unchanged alongside with fewer hours worked and an actual drop in total take home income despite a higher wage due to fewer hours worked. Oh, and unskilled labor (folks like immigrants, refugees, and the young) saw their unemployment rates go up.
Congrats, you fucked over the very people you claimed to have wanted to help.

http://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/the-bitter-lesson-from-seattles-minimum-wage-hike/

Oh, and those people who were working at the old minimum wage? Yeah, their salaries would have gone up anyway with greater experience and tenor so it is the lowest skilled and inexperienced you fucked hardest.

Reality doesn't lie even if you don't like it. That is true for climate change denying Republicans as well as economics denying Democrats.

Nope.

I already broke it down here:
http://www.wordforge.net/index.php?threads/oops.110248/#post-2862398

TLDR: Small wage increases countered small decreases in hours meaning slight increase in take home pay. Low skilled employment increased, although not as much as a 'synthetic Seattle'.

Next time read the study (I linked to it in my big breakdown), not the blog story.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timwor...n-seattle-i-was-right-in-predicting-this/amp/

Forbes anwsers these questions very well so please do read it so you don't keep looking foolish.

Read the study, some saw a very slight increase, others saw a slight drop. Average weekly earnings for minimum wage earners actually dropped depending on how it is measured. Again, you are looking foolish.

Strip out the effects of wider trends (such as the tech boom and the construction boom) and look only at minimum wage earners and you will find the anwser to what effect did this policy have on minimum wage earners. Both articles anwser that question well. The anwser is lower total employment then other wise would be the case, fewer hours worked, and slightly less income over all.

It is like you cannot read English. This is just like how you couldn't name what rule GT broke then later lied and claimed he broke a rule that didn't exist when you banned him (and you still can't link to where he expost facto broke the new stupid rule). Life must be good in the Anc-verse where facts and reality do not apply.

Your sources are giving a different slant than, well, the authors of the report they cite.

Minimum Wage Study: Effects of Seattle wage hike modest, may be overshadowed by strong economy

The lot of Seattle’s lowest-paid workers improved following the city’s minimum wage increase to $11 in 2015, but that was more due to the robust regional economy than the wage hike itself, according to a research team at the University of Washington’s Evans School of Public Policy & Governance.

Although the ordinance appears to have boosted wages for the city’s lowest-paid workers, the benefits of the increase may have been partly offset by fewer hours worked per person and slightly less overall employment, the Seattle Minimum Wage Study research team found. Estimated income gains for the average worker were modest – on the order of a few dollars a week – and sensitive to methodological choices.​

The results are inconclusive. More time and data are needed to draw meaningful results. The increases to date are modest, the minimum wage is up from $9.47 to $11 in 2016.

So first off, I need to point out the difference between the actual report and this blogger's take on it (this article is on Forbes blogger platform, not actual Forbes content). The author of this piece takes a few points out of context and ignores the rest, so worth reading the whole report (or at least the executive summary).

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2997999-Seattle-Minimum-Wage-Final-Report.html

Secondly, it's worth pointing out why this report exists. It's b/c when the City Council voted to raise the minimum wage (over a 8 year period, with small businesses having a slower rate increase) they also commissioned the UW to study the effects. That way the rates can be adjusted based on new evidence. This is what you call governance by facts, not ideology.

Lastly it needs to be emphasized that by every metric, for all workers and businesses the situation improved after the minimum wage increase. Only in comparison to a created "synthetic" Seattle do you get what the blog author holds up as negative. Basically "Yeah, we were wrong about how this would cause Seattle's economy to crumble, instead it is going great, but see, see, by these selected metrics, taken out of context, things could have been even better!"
Now the levels at which this guy gets it wrong:

1) He assumes that working hours are an end unto themself. He points out the 4 hours less of low wage work increases compared to "synthetic" Seattle. So while hours increased they didn't increase as much as they could have increased. However increased hours aren't an end unto themselves. For example, I'd much rather work 10 hours a week and make $40/h than work 40 hours a week and make $10/h. The actual report shows that existing low wage workers in Seattle that kept working through the wage increase saw their weekly take home pay increase $13 a week and their time decrease 15 minutes a week (an average). Only in wackoland does 'more money, less time' turn into a negative "Look, they cut hours!!!"

2) He assumes that low wage employment is an end unto itself. He highlights the point that while low wage employment increased in Seattle, it increased 1% less than "synthetic" Seattle. This assumes that we want to maximize low wage employment. Low wage employment is only good as an entry into the workforce for those without skills. As a workforce becomes more skilled and productive you would hope that the % of those in low skilled/low income positions would decrease.

3) Lastly and this one is more fuzzy, he ignores the values proposition here. This Seattle boom comes down to one basic foundation, people want to live here. That's the reality of the new creative economy. If you want the smart creative workers that fuel your business, you need to locate your business in a place where smart creative people want to live. When Facebook, Google, Ali Baba, Twitter and other tech companies choose to expand, there is a reason they do it in Seattle and not Des Moines. Obviously part of the reason creatives want to live here is the natural setting, but another part is the progressive politics. As people increasingly choose where to live based on politics, and the smartest folks tend to progressive, being at the forefront of progressive politics has a recruiting edge.

I'd just like to point out that the 'slightly less overall employment' was only in comparison to a 'synthetic Seattle' the researchers created. Overall employment increased.