The 2020 Presidential General Election thread

I spent four years in Rome. That rally will be packed.

Will it be at Berry College which is super right wing? (Chick-fil-A has a couple whole dormitories for their scholarship kids who have to pledge to be good right wing drone for 4 years.)

Rome's only about 50 miles north of me an' Ed. All roads lead there.

May we claim your tkts and go as a couple?

It's going to be at the local municipal airport:
https://russellregionalairport.com/

checking runway length, it's 6,006 feet which is kinda short for AF1. He might be roughing it.

So, anybody thinking about voting Libertarian this time out might want to reconsider.

According to Drudge, Trump has cancelled the planned election night party at Trump International Hotel and plans to be at the White House instead.

When Donny don't even want a chance to grift, you know shit has gotten real.

I've said it before: scratch a libertarian and under the surface you'll find a wannabe dictator.

Those are fake names if I ever heard one.

Ran my model again today. WI is above B+5 for the first time ever, and I feel like I can unclench slightly. Trump's advantage in NC is down to just a few thousand votes, T+0.07159. FL and GA are slightly stronger for Biden, by nearly half a point each, but still not over B+1.

538 keeps putting Biden's chances higher and higher, but one commentator says Trump still has about the same chance as a poker player trying to fill an inside straight--about 1 in 10. One the other hand, 538's assessment at this point in 2016 was about in one 3. Las Vegas was built on guys who didn't recognize the futility of bucking those odds. Of course, the numbers work a lot better the more you play them. Trump is only trying to do it twice in a row, which he has a non-zero chance of doing.

While history has shown that Trump has no clue about how gambling works out, I feel the need to mention that if the odds are 99% against Trump winning and he still does win lots of folks will claim that their models weren't wrong, since they never said that it was impossible for him to win.

That's how real statistics works.

Sure, but if someone said that perhaps you should adjust your models since they gave the impression that the odds of Trump winning were so unlikely as to seem impossible and your response was "No." does that sound reasonable to you? I mean, if you went in for an operation that had a 99% survivability rate, yet you died during the procedure would you expect your family to say, "Oh, well, they said that there was a 1% chance he could die so that's okay then." Or would you want them to say, "Hmm. Statistically, he was supposed to have survived, yet he didn't. Perhaps the medical staff screwed something up and we need to investigate this."?

Well, it seems like every medical procedure carries some risk. That risk includes the possibility of malpractice. One of the things I like about 538 is that their projections are run over thousands of times to show a range of possibilities. (I've had a couple of major and several minor procedures in the last few years. One of them was a colonscopy. Joan Rivers died after having one. It was caused by malpractice, but human error is something your can never wholly eliminate) Much like Hari Seldon's Psychistory model or actuarial tables you can make incredibly accurate predictions about mass events, but when it comes to individual predictionns there's always that mathematical variable known as "shit happens".
All that said, there were some errors and miscalculations made and pollsters have tried to adjust their methodology to account for the ones that they could identify. But still...shit happens...

I'm sticking with The Economist's model personally.

I prefer the model that my crack dealer came up with after rolling dice in the alley 37 times.

Thanks, very illuminating

I'd tell 'em to go ahead and fucking shoot. I'd rather be dead than live in a country where thugs intimidate voters.

Ah, but then the cops respond and start attacking the black voters instead of their white assailants. Hard to stay in line when you're standing in a cloud of tear gas.

So @Uncle Albert, if I understand correctly, this is the point where you advise stepping away and just handing the election to the armed thugs?

I want Trump's presidency to end the way Daredevil season 3 ended.
With somebody punching Trump in the face with ropes wrapped around their fists screaming "THIS COUNTRY REJECTED YOU!!!!! GET OUT OF OUR WHITE HOUSE!!!! GET OUT!!! GET OUT!!! GET OOOUUUTTT!! ".
And only after his face his goo, does he finally go "...gasp...wheeze...all right...all right...".

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...espond-potential-election-day-unrest-n1245486

Oh look, ICE is ready to round up minorities on election day.