The Sixth (!) Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread

Edit: Moved my post to the main election thread.
https://wordforge.net/index.php?thr...-election-thread.120127/page-140#post-3286040

I think it will be Biden 271 Trump 267. Wisconsin and Michigan flip back to blue and Arizona turns blue for the first time in a very long while which puts Biden over the top



GOP holds on to the Senate and the Dems hold on to the house.

Just a reminder, you need seat counts for Senate and House to enter.

It’s hard to imagine Trump winning PA but not ME-2. And your colors are too light for NM, CO, VA, NH, ME-1, ME, MO, and IN. Otherwise this is plausible.
Edit: nvm, this is the prediction thread, not the election thread. Forget it.

Do I need to include an answer to the tie breaker too?

Reposting my prediction, and adding that I think Shahid Buttar gets 0.69%.

Not required, but if there is a tie between somebody who's answered it and somebody who hasn't, the one who's answered it automatically wins.

This is almost definitely irrelevant because a tie has never happened. I just include the tiebreaker because I usually have fun with it.

These are the people I have eligible entries from:

@Ancalagon
@Bailey
@Demiurge
@Order2Chaos
@Rimjob Bob

Oddly, you all ended up placing your guesses in alphabetical order.

If you posted a prediction and your name is not on this list, it's probably because you left out one of the sections (you have to list President, House and Senate), gave a range ("Biden gets at least so many votes") or listed a pickup number that I was not able to translate into a seat count (for instance, "Democrats gain x in the House" doesn't work because I don't know if it's from the current number of Democrats in the chamber, with vacancies, or a change from the beginning of the current Congress, or something else).

You can enter (or change your prediction) up until 7 a.m. tomorrow. If you change your prediction, please do it in a new post to make sure I see it.

I'm sorry, only people whose names start with S are eligible due to the alphabetic order mandate of 2020.

Trump 294
Biden 244

Senate
R - 52
D - 48

House
D - 237
R - 198

Speaker
28%

You might want to @ the people whose guesses won't count instead.

I'm going with the "epic GTFO" model, just because I still want to believe this is a country, even if 40% of it is Deplorables, that cannot possibly NOT have just that reaction to the epic dumpster fire we continue to witness in Trump.

Thus, here's my EC map:



You didn't ask but Biden 54%, Trump 42%, Others - 4%


Senate: Dems - 54, GOP - 46

House: Dems - 244, GOP - 191

Tiebreaker - 12%

Biden winning Texas without Iowa? Okay then.

Electoral College: Trump 356 Biden 182

House: Republicans: 265 Democrats: 170

Senate: Republicans: 60 Democrats: 40

Tie Breaker: 3%

I'm glad you're not dead, but hopefully your doctors are on top of that severe head trauma you apparently suffered!

Demographics are much different, momentum is stronger in one than the other. I wouldn't be stunned if Biden squeaks out Iowa tho

I predict that Trump will declare victory before anything like the full count is done. He'll then try to prevent the full count from being done. And it's anyone's guess from there.

I hope I'm wrong.

I fear this is wishful thinking.

But I'm going to wish right along with you! Here's hoping you're right!

That is surely what he'll do if it's at all close.

If it's a big enough Biden blowout, even he will realize that strategy can't possible work. I think...

Updated guess:

388 Biden
150 Trump

Senate: 52D-48R
House: 242D-193

Buttar: 23%

USSC already said the PA extension is likely unconstitutional and those votes may get wiped out. As they should be.

Further updated guess, in case you've already taken it, tafkats.

369 Biden
169 Trump
Senate: 52D-48R
House: 242D-193R

Buttar: 23%

I think Biden can take Texas, but I think Trump will get enough PA ballots tossed to swing the election there. And a coin toss came up differently for ME-2.

All I can say is this: if POTUS rules that a mail-in ballot postmarked before the election but which doesn't arrive until after the election doesn't count, I will expect them also to rule that income taxes postmarked before the deadline but which don't arrive until after the deadline don't count, either. If people want penalties for things that are not their fault, let's at least let those penalties be consistent.

If your constitution demands that people be disenfranchised after a global pandemic and wannabe dictator ratfuck your postal service then it might just be that the constitution ain't that great.

Entries are now closed.

As a former Iowan I hope not, but given the rightward shift of rural areas and leftward shift of the suburbs, it seems plausible.

What about entries that were postmarked before November 3, but that the board software somehow took up to 3 days to log? Or will that have to wait until SCOTUS has ruled on the question?

And the entries from the other side of the international dateline. It's not Tuesday there yet. aw shit, it's already wednesday. I always get that wrong.

Played hell when I was programming airline schedules.

Here's the thing. You're speaking emotionally, not factually. The law provides for income tax returns to be postmarked by April 15th. The US Constitution does NOT provide for the State of Pennsylvania Supreme Court to change the election law that the Pennsylvania State Legislature has passed. See below:

"It would be highly desirable to issue a ruling on the constitutionality of the State Supreme Court’s decision before the election," Alito said in a statement issued along with the Supreme Court's decision not to grant expedited review in the case Republican Party of Pennsylvania v. Boockvar. "That question has national importance, and there is a strong likelihood that the State Supreme Court decision violates the Federal Constitution."

And this is why the democrats are begging their voters to show up in person today. But....but...but....Covid!