Iran is kicking off...

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by matthunter, Sep 21, 2022.

  1. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  2. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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  3. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Me too, but why are you opposed to this states right to decide what rights women should have? Unless you've changed your tune on that and I didn't notice?
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  4. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    Because I’m not opposed to basic constitutional rights that don’t violate the non aggression principle. Abortion requires nuance.
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  5. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  6. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  7. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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  8. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  9. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  10. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  11. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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  12. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    Iran is on the Commission on the Status of Women?
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  13. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Take a look at the membership of the Human Rights Commission :brood:
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  14. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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    Yeah, it's a thing they do. The argument is that by adding fuckstick countries to such commissions they can build trust in nations that might otherwise be dubious of the claims of abuse. After all, if the US says that a country doesn't respect human rights, folks are going to have questions about that, especially if the country we're talking about has a lot of natural resources we're interested in.
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  15. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  16. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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    Hmm. Who else has suggested doing this to protestors?
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  17. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    It appears a general strike is breaking out all over Iran. The cities are dominated at night by the protesters. The college campuses are shut down. The workers at the Eshafan Steel Company have walked off the job. Bazaars are closing.

    This is a really interesting test. Can a peaceful protest overthrow an authoritarian regime? In the past only if the regime gave up. We'll see.

    https://imgur.com/gallery/ejm2yp8
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  18. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    How bizarre, how bizarre.
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  19. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon Scalawag Administrator Formerly Important

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    This is actually a really big deal.

    The Bazaari (independent shop owners) are the Iranian version of ‘Middle Class’.

    They want stability more than anything. When they turned against the Shah that was the end.

    The regime has been buying them off by allowing them to smuggle and run a black market without cracking down.

    They have actually been making money under ‘Maximum Pressure’.

    So if, IF (and one report doesn’t cut it) the Bazaari turn against the regime this would be a big deal.

    [name of partner] (my Azari-Iranian partner) flew in for my birthday and I just asked and they said while it worth watching this is the three year anniversary of the 2019 fuel subsidy riots so not necessarily a Big Deal. They might just be warning the regime that they need to be taken care of. If the bazaars stay closed on day four then we might be seeing something.
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2024
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  20. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    9051CD75-FADA-483E-B588-AEC5F2879BED.jpeg
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  21. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon Scalawag Administrator Formerly Important

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    I got that.

    Was just pointing out that it might not end up being a joking matter. Hopefully.
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  22. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Any government can be overthrown if enough people are dissatisfied enough to die to do it. The question is whether Iran is at that point. All we can do is watch and wait. :clyde: ETA: now that the government is handing out death sentences, the question becomes whether this will extinguish the fire or fan the flames? :clyde:
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2022
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  23. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  24. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon Scalawag Administrator Formerly Important

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    Good thing that one of the seminal events in Shia Islam isn’t the martyrdom of Ali.
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  25. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    Dying to do it actually doesn't achieve anything. You need more than anything else organization, but you also need resources.

    The ultimate test will come when they call out the military. If the military refuses to quell the uprisings then it can be successful. If they hesitate to fire on their own people it can be the impetus to sweep the Mullahs out. If they join the protesters it's over - but then you will probably see a military coup and who knows if that ends up being any better.

    But Iran's military has more than enough firepower to suppress its population. Between tanks, self-propelled artillery and AFVs it may have as many as 12,000. Yes, they are mostly old and obsolescent, but they aren't going to be facing a Leopard or Abrams. They are likely going to be facing people with blankets and molotovs.

    Let's hope there's enough social pressure to force the theocracy out. But it seems pretty unlikely the Mullahs are going to go without a lot of blood. Religious fanaticism fairly well necessitates it. They believe they are righteous in the eyes of Allah.

    On the plus side, I imagine that Iran is going to be too busy with it's own problems to continue to aid the Russians against Ukraine.
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  26. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon Scalawag Administrator Formerly Important

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    Keep in mind that Iran has basically two parallel militaries.

    There is the IRCG (aka Sepah) along with its plainclothes militia (Basij) who are charged with defending the Islamic Republic.

    Then there is the regular military (Artesh) who is tasked with defending the country.

    The Sepah is smaller but much better funded/supplied/equipped/etc.

    So far they and the Basij have been handling the protests. What happens if the Artesh is needed and called up (do they deploy or stay in their barracks like they mostly did during the Revolution) will be telling.
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  27. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    It would be very hard to see the IRGC do anything other than support the theocracy. That's their role and they are hand picked for the task.

    The Basij very well could support a revolution, being comprised of the bulk of the population. In theory they have the largest number of troops available, but the worst equipment and only a small percentage of them are mobilized at any one time.

    The Artesh is really the key IMO. Their standing army is twice as big as the Islamic Republican Guard, and they have significant heavy equipment such as tanks and rocket systems.

    It wouldn't take much to kick this off to another civil war.

    I hope that a civil revolution institutes new norms, but if I had to wager right now I'd say this is another popular revolution that is going to fail when the tanks roll.

    I really hope I'm wrong.
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  28. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  29. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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  30. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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