Advance to about 1:08. The explosion is either in the top of the second stage or in the satellite's own booster.
SpaceX is leaning toward a catastrophic rupture of one of the helium tanks in the upper stage LOX tank, which would have also ruptured the common bulkhead. My theory is that it sent a pressure wave up through the propellant feed lines all the way to the umbilical, which should be the weakest point since it's a disconnect fitting. That would have sprayed oxidizer and fuel all over the place, while probably breaking or shorting the umbilical's electrical connections, causing a spark.
Oh, you know ULA totally popped the upper stage with a .50 BMG from their roof 1700 years away. It's a trivial shot. They know exactly where the helium tank is and what would happen, and that the evidence would be lost in all the debris from the explosion. What they didn't count on is how young SpaceX employees are, hardly more than kids, and how they like to meddle. Why would they deny SpaceX access to their roof? Are they afraid of revealing the secrets of their HVAC system or lightning protection? Instead they called in Air Force investigators who work hand in glove with ULA on lucrative launch contracts.
A shot seems unlikely. Even if someone has a rifle that can shoot that far--and a big enough suppressor to muffle the muzzle blast--there's still going to be a sonic boom from the bullet. Also, the explosion seems to erupt from inside the vehicle. I doubt something external caused that.
There's a boom about a second before the big explosion that could be the muzzle blast and shockwave. SpaceX has yet to figure out the first boom. A solid bullet isn't going to cause an immediate explosion. It's like punching a hole in a Zeppelin with a jacketed slug. It just causes a leak, but in this case a catastrophic leak of high pressure helium that none of the systems can deal with, like tossing an Alka-Seltzer to a seagull. The big boom might take one second or ten seconds, but the big boom is going to happen.
They need to find all the pieces, and see if any of the pieces has a bullet hole (or a fracture started from a bullet hole). I doubt it.
ULA could have used a multiphasic particle emitter to superheat the helium and cause a rupture. There's no way a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) can just fail like it had a flawed layup (a void or dry spot) or got banged during installation, fracturing the carbon fibers. Besides, COPV's fail gracefully. It's like the Bolshoi Ballet of flying debris.
You know ULA will slip a couple of insiders on board to sabotage Elon's first Mars flight, leaving the survivors stranded on a desert planet without any contact with Earth.
Dr. Smith is kinda like Gilligan to me. You might forgive him for fucking you once, but the second time it happens, he's going to be killed.
We just have to tweak the plot. Dr. Smith's claim is that he did nothing to sabotage SpaceX's miserable excuse for a space mission, and that SpaceX can't manage a rescue mission because their rockets continue to mysteriously blow up, and they can't figure out the cause because they're a bunch of college graduate n00bs led by a billionaire Internet idiot who couldn't design his way out of a paper bag. So if the gaggle of Elon Musk's dunder headed suckers want to survive and get back to Earth, they'll have to cooperate with Dr. Smith who will coordinate with the incredibly competent and experienced ULA engineers to put together a rescue mission, using the vast resources of Lockheed Martin and Boeing (McDonnell Douglas, Hughes, North American Aviation - North American Rockwell), all of whom have been building airplanes since the biplane era and spacecraft since the invention of outer space.
Update: doesn't look like sabotage is being considered: looks more like operational error. And does WSJ understand what snafu means? SpaceX Explosion Investigation Focuses on Fueling Snafu Preliminary results point to operational procedures, not a manufacturing flaw link
Nerds having fun: The good ship Just Read the Instructions* christening went well... *nerd nod to Scottish author Iain Banks.
Used Falcon for sale! 10% off. Ooops sold already, nevermind. A European-built communications satellite has arrived at Cape Canaveral for fueling and final launch preparations ahead of a planned late February liftoff aboard a Falcon 9 rocket with a previously-flown first stage booster. While SpaceX and SES did not disclose terms of their contract for the SES 10 launch, Shotwell [SpaceX’s president and chief operating officer. Makes you wonder if they hired her just for her name] said last year the launch provider is offering a 10 percent discount for customers willing to fly their payloads on reused boosters.
And if that ain't enough. Musk aims at Comcast. The launch was doubly important for SpaceX, which has been quietly harboring its own Internet satellite plans. Musk wants to bring space broadband to the world — not just to the legions of Americans who are unhappy with their Internet providers, but to the 3 billion people around the world who have poor or no Internet access.
They've used SpaceX to launch some of their imaging satellites. Rumor has it that the bean counters have taken over Google and are killing anything which isn't going to show a profit in the short-term.
Another successful launch and landing. Dragon cargo to the ISS. Advance to 36 minutes to begin at the fun part:
