"The 1980's are calling to ask for their foreign policy back."

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Steal Your Face, Jan 8, 2022.

  1. Quincunx

    Quincunx anti-anti-establishment Staff Member Administrator

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  2. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  3. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    Military Industrial Complex wins again.
  4. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  5. spot261

    spot261 I don't want the game to end

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    It seems to me the biggest enemy isn't Russia, or China, or (for that matter) the US.

    It's war itself.

    The thread title is spot on, we're right back in Cold War era politics where a civilised detente is preferable to a victory too costly to contemplate.

    In that regard I feel the worst thing we could do was discuss NATO membership with Ukraine when it was so provocative.

    Clearly Putin would respond to NATO borders moving literally into contact with his own and both sides are now in a position of being invested in a potential conflict where any sign of weakness in front of the world is unacceptable. The best approach here would be to quietly reduce the clamour and sabre rattlibg

    Ukranians are at far worse risk of outright invasion now than previously and unfortunately Russia does have a legitimate claim that sovereignty is in dispute.
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  6. Tererune

    Tererune Troll princess and Magical Girl

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    OMG you are back! I did miss you and glad to see you are still around.

    As for what you are saying, I can see Ukraine as being a buffer between NATO and Russia. It does put the people of that area in a large political position. A huge problem was the taking of Crimea as it was sabre rattling that ended up working. Eventually you have to protect that buffer.

    Russia/europe/middle east/China are in a much different position than the US over all because they share these land boundaries with opponents. This puts the US in a very inexperienced position with these sorts of things.
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  7. spot261

    spot261 I don't want the game to end

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    Absolutely, although a case could be made that the West hardly discouraged Ukraine gaining independence and that is very much what Putin is wary of, the gradual non violent erosion of Russia's strategic position.

    I've seen the analogy used a few times of Texas declaring independence then a military alliance with Russia or China (or Cornwall in our case) and it's perfectly valid but unpersuasive because as you say most Americans have little to no context for such a scenario being anything other than fantasy. It sounds far fetched to the point of being silly so the Russian response just looks like belligerence against freedom.

    For Putin, Russian citizens and Ukranians who support them (of which there are many) NATO looks very threatening indeed and few people are going to trust the benign intentions of an alliance led by the US, the UK or even the European powers whose soil has for decades been seen as hostile and expansionist territory.
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  8. steve2^4

    steve2^4 Aged Meat

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    Good boy, Spot! I knew he'd come back if we left some food by the door.
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  9. Quincunx

    Quincunx anti-anti-establishment Staff Member Administrator

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    Not that you'd know it from listening to Russian propaganda, but there has been no discussion of Ukraine joining NATO. Ukraine has no prospect whatsoever of joining NATO as long as conflict rages in Donbas. Nor is the sovereign government of Ukraine a NATO puppet, as is often claimed. These are falsehoods created by Putin as a pretext for his thuggish aggression.

    (Welcome back, btw!)
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  10. spot261

    spot261 I don't want the game to end

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    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm

    Article 69 is of particular relevance here with an explicit (and public) declaration of the intent to progress Ukraine to NATO membership and an action plan to implement to that end.

    And thanks btw!
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  11. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  12. spot261

    spot261 I don't want the game to end

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    I have literally no idea what any of that meant!
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  13. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    Russia has one hell of an anti-aircraft tank.
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  14. Ten Lubak

    Ten Lubak Salty Dog

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    I know you
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  15. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    Eisenhower, who coined that phrase, was just fine with the U.S. defending a weaker sovereign nation against aggression by a hostile power.
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  16. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    I know, but don't you think we've done more that our fair share of meddling? I'm all for helping Ukraine, but now we have boots on the ground.
  17. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    Two-thirds of those boots are headed to Germany and Poland, which are both our allies. The other third were already overseas, in Germany, and are headed to Romania, another ally.

    I know it's hard to remember after four years of a president who would roll over like a slobbering, lovesick puppy for any homicidal dictator who he perceived as an Alpha Dog, but standing up for your allies is something that responsible members of the community of nations do.
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  18. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    You wanna get WW3, because this is how you get WW3. You can send Ukraine weapons and other things without sending in troops.
  19. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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    Arming Ukraine still gets us WWIII. Having nothing to do with Ukraine also gets us WWIII. Assuming, of course, Pootie-Poot actually wants WWIII. He might not, but then again, he might. We know what happened when everybody said, "Eh, just let that European guy do whatever he wants. Besides, most of those countries were part of Germany before the war, so why shouldn't he take them back?"
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  20. Quincunx

    Quincunx anti-anti-establishment Staff Member Administrator

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    It’s no secret Ukraine wants to join NATO, just as it’s no secret Russia wants Ukraine as a satellite. NATO has been consistent that nations have the right to determine their own alliances, but also that Ukraine is nowhere close to being ready to join. There’s nothing in that article which should trigger troops and armor massed at the border and threats of imminent invasion.
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  21. shootER

    shootER Insubordinate...and churlish Administrator

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    Here's a newsletter for Atlantic subscribers that's very informative about the Ukraine situation:


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  22. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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    69, Giggity!
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  23. Bickendan

    Bickendan Custom Title Administrator Faceless Mook Writer

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    Oh thank Iyhara -- @spot261, I was half worried you caught a nasty case of Covid and croaked it!
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  24. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    You can, but the next time you're trying to negotiate a mutual defence treaty you might suddenly find the other party a lot less trusting.
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  25. spot261

    spot261 I don't want the game to end

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    I have to disagree with your reading of the link to be honest. It couldn't be any more explicit in outright stating Ukranian membership is a NATO goal, not just a Ukranian one.

    "Should", however, is something really open to interpretation and if we could all agree on exactly what it entails these problems would be a great deal simpler.

    You don't see that overt declaration by NATO to make active moves towards Ukranian membership as a cause for concern, but Putin does. Just as importantly he sees the blow to his public perception as a strong man to be intolerable.

    Putin wants Ukraine back, he sees it as part of sovereign Russian territory (as do many Ukranians).

    As a long term policy goal that could stay on the back burner and be pursued in a less forceful manner but contrary to your assertion NATO have made it utterly clear in both word and deed that expansion in the region is on the cards.

    The possibility of it being not only a separate nation but a NATO member to boot raises the stakes exponentially, it represents a hard border on his strategic goals and a very uncomfortable potential staging ground for western military interventions.

    Given the above Putin's reaction was always predictable and the media attention being lavished on the situation is being unhelpful where it shapes rather than merely reports events.
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  26. Quincunx

    Quincunx anti-anti-establishment Staff Member Administrator

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    The difference being of course, that NATO is willing to accept new members in accordance with that country's wishes, while Russia is determined to incorporate part or all of Ukraine against their wishes.
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  27. spot261

    spot261 I don't want the game to end

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    That was never in doubt.
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  28. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  29. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  30. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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