Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Order2Chaos, Jun 17, 2020.
So you can't answer the question then, got it.
It's ironic you comment on echo chambers when you place posters on ignore as frequently your mom packs your school lunch.
I honestly think Trump taking Pennsylvania was a fluke. And we still have a long way to go until November. So far we've had to deal with a pandemic and riots. Who knows what comes next?
Whether the EC system is a good idea or not, by now I would imagine every voter and everyone running for office is fully aware of it. Until we abolish it, the reality is every candidate needs to work their election strategy around the EC to some degree. If this de-legitimizes the government for any states then these states need to double-down on getting rid of the EC system.
Let's dive deeper on the current polling vs. outperformance, because there was a fair bit of 3rd-party and undecided breakage in the 2016 election, which, assuming something similar happens again, makes some of those swing states perhaps even swingier.
AZ: 93.8% of voters voted for Trump or Clinton, vs 87.1% in polling. So 6.7% decided late; 36% of which for Clinton, 64% for Trump. Right now 89.7% plan to vote for Biden or Trump. I'm going to use 2012 numbers to determine the size of the undecided pool (vs who will vote 3rd party anyway*). In 2012, Obama+Romney was 98.2% in AZ, a gap of 8.5%. Trump should get +5.4%, Biden +3.1%, net Trump +2.3. That's smaller than Biden's current poll margin (D+3.3), but not his margin + a MOE. So I'm comfortable, but not thrilled.
CO: 91.4% (2016 total) - 83.4% (2016 polling) = 8%. 44%C, 56%T break. 97.6% (2012 total) - 92%(2020 plan) = 5.6% undecided. T+3.1, B+2.5, net T+0.6. CO polling: D+16. I'm happy here.
FL: 96.9-90.1 = 6.8%. 67%T 33%C break. 99.1-92.5 = 6.6% undecided. T+4.4, B+2.2, net T+2.2. FL polling: D+2.5. Just barely good enough, but I'll mark it blue.
GA: 96.4-90.7 = 5.7%. 61%T 39%C break. 99.1-91.6 = 7.5% undecided. T+4.6, B+2.9, net T+1.7. GA polling: R+1. Even more likely red, although almost the same.
IA: 92.9-83.9 = 9%. 89%T 11%C break. 98.2-93.5 = 4.7% undecided. T+4.2, B+0.5, net T+3.7. IA polling: R+0.5. About half the margin I calculated in the first approximation, but still plenty red.
ME-S: 92.7-82.2 = 10.5%. 74%T 26%C break. 97.3-... oops no polling in Maine recently. never mind.
MI: 9.9%, 72%T 28%C break. 98.9-92 = 6.9% undecided. T+5.0, B+1.9, net T+3.1. MI polling: D+7.6. I'm pretty happy with that, having 4.5% to spare. Note that if Biden takes AZ, FL, and any one other swing state from MN to PA, it's game over for Trump.
MN: 8.8%, 83%T 17%C break. 97.6-93 = 4.6% undecided. T+3.8, B+0.8, net T+3. MN polling: D+5. Moderately comfortable.
NV: no recent polling, but this was one state that actually broke more for Clinton than Trump, so I'm optimistic.
NH: no recent polling, but conventional wisdom seems to be it's somewhat blue.
NM: same as NV, except it broke more for Clinton than any other swing state.
NC: 6.4%, 84%T, 16%C break. 98.7-90.7 = 8% undecided. T+6.7, B+1.3, net T+5.4. NC polling: D+0.5. This is actually more solidly Trump than my previous estimate.
OH: 8%, 89%T, 11%C break. 98.4-94 = 4.8% undecided. T+4.3, B+0.5, net T+ 3.8. OH polling: R+0.5. Less solidly Trump than before, but still nothing to pin any hopes on.
PA: 6.9%, 84%T, 16%C break. 98.6-92.9 = 5.7% undecided. T+4.8%, B+ 0.9%, net T+3.9. PA polling: D+0.1. That's no margin to believe in, though slightly more optimistic than my first estimate.
UT: 10.2%, 90%T, 10%C break. 97.5-85 = 12.5% undecided. T+11.3, B+ 1.2, net T+ 10.1. UT polling: R+3. No hope whatsoever. Also more solidly Trump than my previous estimate.
VA: 6.8%, 54%T 46%C break. 98.4-90 = 8.4% undecided. T+4.5, B+3.9, net T+0.6. VA polling: D+12. Solid blue. T+0.6 is the same figure I had before, too.
WI: 6.6%, 102%T, -2%C break. 98.7-89.3 = 9.4% undecided. T+9.6, B-0.2, net T+9.8. WI polling: D+6.2. Looks good at a glance, but it's pretty clearly not nearly enough. This one is also more likely for Trump than in my initial estimate.
TX: 8.3%, 65%T, 35%C break. 98.6-94.3 = 4.3% undecided. T+2.8, B+1.5%, net T+1.3. TX polling: R+1.5. Better than before, still pretty red.
MO: 6.5%, 111%T, -11%C break. 98.1-92 = 6.1% undecided. T+6.8, B-0.7, net T+7.5. MO polling: R+4. Solid red.
NE-2: no recent polling.
Assuming the same results as 2016 for the states with no recent polling, we get this map:
Not the best of margins, but I'll take it.
*if JoJo becomes a major factor, a lot of these bets are off. I haven't seen her polling well though.
What I hope happens:
Trump wins the popular vote, but Biden gets more electoral votes.
Mitch McTurtle says "fuck that, now that the electoral college isn't helping us were suddenly against it."
Trump asks on live TV is he's allowed to have several democratic electors assassinated so they can't vote.
Through some sort of fuckery or other, the election is given to Trump.
Riots that make the recent ones look like a Boy Scout Jamboree, and possibly civil war.
What I think will actually happen:
Biden will win the popular vote. Everything else, it could go either way.
Trump has probably lost more support than he's gained since the last election. Even still, nobody liked Hillary and she almost won. Joe will probably have an easier time against Trump than Hillary did. Still, there's a good chance he'll fuck it up.
I hope Biden wins. He'll probably be a mediocre president at best, but the epic temper tantrum Trump will throw should be entertaining.
Latest FOX poll says 50% Biden, 38% Trump. Though 61% of respondents said they would vote Biden to stop Trump, rather than any particular enthusiasm for Biden.
If Biden takes office, the only place for this storyline to go will be for him to promptly pardon Trump for everything he did in office, claiming intentions of uniting and healing the country when we all know he just wants to placate the far right, for all the good that'll do him.
Just putting that out there right now.
Yeah, but that's fake news. Their pollster should be fired, sued, sent to jail, and possibly executed for treason, for trying to undermine the confidence of the American people in their Dear Leader.
In reality, Donald Trump is going to win re-election by a landslide, just as he did in 2016. And his second inauguration is going to be an even bigger biggest inauguration in US history. I know all that because Donald Trump said so. And if there's one person whose word I know I can trust, it's Donald Trump.
In a "normal" election - as "free and fair" as they typically are, 2016 notwithstanding, Trump's gonna get his ass kicked.
Remains to be seen whether we'll have such an election.
I think the best outcome would be for him to say that he isn't going to bother with Trump from the moment he leaves office, but he isn't pardoning him for anything either.
It's all going to come down to Biden's VP pick. Biden has been running to the left of where he was in the primaries and far to the left of where he was as VP. If he can pick a moderate VP, which I don't see happening in the current Democratic party, he could shore up that portion of the vote. If Biden wins, and that's a big IF, I think it'll be more "anyone but Trump" than anything else. But, Kerry failed as the "anyone but Bush" candidate and Romney failed as the "anyone but Obama" candidate.
The question is, which VP nominees would that segment of the electorate view as moderate?
Kamala Harris has one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate. But the Berners spent months screaming that she was practically a Republican, so which of those perceptions will stick?
Key words: in the Senate. In every elected executive position she’s had, she has behaved like everything from a bog-standard tough-on-crime Democrat to a Trump Republican. You can’t tell me the original Backpage prosecution (Oct 6-Dec 9 in 2016) wasn’t timed to secure her election to the Senate.
Which Kamala Harris would we get as Vice President?
Which is completely fine, because in 2016 we had plenty WFers say they were voting for Trump because they didn't want Hillary
oh he's already got the centrists sewed up and his name tattooed on their foreheads. He doesn't have to do a thing to hold them - except for Wall Street.
His choice is to please the progressives,including the lower age cohorts, by taking Warren, or please Wall Street by picking not-Warren.
His choice will tell you almost everything you need to know about the sort of president he intends to be.
A distinct possibility. Donnie Boy can spend his days on the course at Mar-a-Lago until someone with a camera phone catches him shitting his pants and being escorted off the course.
Let the games begin...
Two percent was 3 million voters :| people stayed salty about Bush/Gore with a 500k difference. If there's a difference in the double digits, there will be blood on the streets. Civil wars have started over this kind of thing.
Gosh, it's as if, when you devote every fiber of your being to playing not to lose . . . you're gonna lose.
January first, I figured Trump had a lock on this thing.
After Covid and the mass civil unrest, I think it's up for grabs at this point. I don't really trust the polls, because based on those even I thought Hillary had a lock on 2016. I wound up pulling an all-nighter on election night, and the next morning I felt like I'd slipped into a parallel universe.
I think Elwood has it down to brass tacks- a lot is going to ride on Biden's VP pick, because it's fairly obvious that Biden's VP will be the power behind the throne, and probably assume the presidency when Biden's cognitive issues force him to step down. And anyone who can't see those is fooling themselves- in this election the Biden voters will really be voting for the party rather than the man.
It won't shock me if Biden refuses to do any debates. He's polling ahead of Trump, and honestly, given his issues, any attempt to stand up on a stage and go unscripted will cost him dearly. Therefore, aside from a slight loss of face (which doesn't matter when you have people saying they'd vote for him if he boiled and ate babies), the debate stage offers nothing positive for him.
The debates should be interesting :the Gaffer vs. the Liar
Biden slammed after wrongly saying ‘we have over 120 million dead from COVID’
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