2020 non-presidential election boogaloo

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by MikeH92467, Jul 7, 2020.

  1. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Rather than clog up the presidential election thread, I figured I'd create a new thread for interesting stuff from the other races at the Congressional and state levels.

    Here's one I found interesting. Lindsey Graham may be feeling some heat in South Carolina. It strikes me as a long shot, but it could force republicans to put more resources than they expected into what seemed like a safe seat going in. :corn:
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  2. The Ghost of Crazy Horse

    The Ghost of Crazy Horse Soul Rebel

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    Fuck Lindsey Graham.
  3. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, Lady G reportedly likes 'em young...
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  4. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    Electoral-vote.com has the Senate 52D-47R-1 tied, which I think is just about what the latest raw polling data says, not even accounting for previous polls.

    270toWin has a different consensus map:
    [​IMG]

    I don't think that's a good map. Colorado has been consistently 10+ points for Hickenlooper. Mark Kelly hasn't had quite such a consistent margin, but has been over 50% multiple times, and has an average margin of 9.4 points. That's a likely Dem pickup. Montana is a tossup. Bullock is leading by 4% in what limited polling there is, but that's not outside the margin of error. Collins is losing Maine by 4%, with a 3.something margin of error. I'd leave this at a toss-up, but one of the best polls put Gideon above 50%. I agree with their TX assessment. It might be leans Rep or tossup in the Presidential race, but Cornryn doesn't seem to be in any danger. MI seems more solidly blue than the consensus map; only one poll in the last 6 weeks has Peters up by less than 10. NC is an odd one. Polls are kinda all over the place here. Still, there hasn't been a poll with Tillis up by more than 1% since the beginning of June, and most of the polls put Cunningham up by more than the margin of error. I'll call this leans Dem. In IA, all the polling recently has been within the margin of error. I'll call this one a toss-up. AL is one state where the the consensus isn't red enough. Doug Jones is toast, no matter who wins the runoff. GA is a tossup; recent polling is all within the MoE, and on both sides. And that's for the regular election. For the special election, it likely depends on the primary results. Still, if Perdue, an elected incumbent, doesn't have a solid lead, neither does the other Republican, whoever it is. There's insufficient polling in KS to say anything about who's going to win there. I'm not sure if it's fair to move it to the tossup column; what polling there is shows it to be quite close. Lindsay Graham is in trouble in SC... maybe. There hasn't been any polling since May, and it was tied then. Before that, it was very solidly for Graham. I think it's not unreasonable to lighten this to pink, at least. Alaska has a similar lack of polling, but what there is is not good news for Republicans. Moving this to leans R. None of the other states with a Senate race are worth considering.

    This is what my polling average map (with a one-color deference to conventional wisdom where there hasn't been enough polling) looks like then:
    [​IMG]

    So everything from 48D-52R to 57D-43R is within the realm of the probable right now. If I was going to put money on it, I'd put it at 51D-49R, with this map + Montana for the Dems. I think GA's voter suppression efforts will be good enough for the Republicans to keep both seats in GA. Iowa's a big unknown, but I think Maine is finally getting sick of Collins's shit, and I think Tillis will end up rejected in NC.

    That said, it's a long way from the election.
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  5. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Fivethirtyeight has the latest polls and puts them in context. Good stuff.
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  6. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    The polls aren't the only indicators the republicans are worried about. When you follow the money, there's plenty to worry about as well.
    The Republican concerns are less about what the money means for this moment, and more about how growing war chests among Senate Democratic candidates will directly lead to nonstop ad campaigns in the fall, when voters are paying closer attention to these key Senate race. That scenario played out in in 2018, where Democrats dominated the airwaves in House races ahead of the November elections because of the fundraising superiority they built earlier in the year.

    The financial struggles, especially in the Senate races, is clearly worrying Republicans, and fundraising emails from those incumbent senators are getting more dire.

    "In order for me to beat my SURGING opponent and defeat Chuck Schumer's Senate take-over plan -- I need 150 Trump supporters to step up and donate to my campaign BEFORE MIDNIGHT," Montana's Daines wrote in an email to supporters on Tuesday. "Everything is on the line this election and the next couple hours could make or break the outcome."
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  7. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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  8. shootER

    shootER Insubordinate...and churlish Administrator

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    Wow. Even Coulter's turned on the turtle. :lol:

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  9. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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  10. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    Lest anyone think that #MoscowMitch is somehow unique in earning the wrath of never Trumpers.

    Rick Wilson, who's one of the folks in charge of the Lincoln Project has said that he wants to burn the current Republican party to the ground and rebuild it from scratch. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't planning on a flurry of attack ads against Republicans that are timed to hit just before the election.
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  11. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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  12. Bickendan

    Bickendan Custom Title Administrator Faceless Mook Writer

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    Ooh did I just hear a Koopa king giving out honorary plumber's caps to anyone standing up to Mitch McTurtle?
  13. Tererun

    Tererun Troll princess and Magical Girl

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    If we jump on his back can we send him sliding into Ted Cruz and Lindsey Greham? Or we could jump on him next to a wall and get a bunch of lives for the US. Or we could just eat some mushrooms until we can see ourselfves throwing fireballs at him.

    I am kinduv up for the mushroom thing even if it is not real.
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  14. Bickendan

    Bickendan Custom Title Administrator Faceless Mook Writer

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    It's pick a flower to throw fireballs but you get an honorary plumber's cap.
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  15. Tererun

    Tererun Troll princess and Magical Girl

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    I figure the fireflower comes after you eat the magic mushrooms that makes you feel twice as big. We also might want to jump up and hit our heads on brick blocks above us until we see stars of invincibility and then we can charge everyone in congress killing them without the need of the turtle shell. That is until our power runs out, I am thinking if I bash my head enough, and eat enough mushrooms I eventually will become a tanuki.
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  16. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    Posting here because it's not worth its own thread, and because this idiot is up for re-election this year.



    Socialism and anarchy may not be complete opposites, but they're pretty damn close.
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  17. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    The republicans may have to spend big to defend Texas AND Kentucky. :corn:
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  18. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Yahoo News reports that former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville has defeated Jeff Sessions in the Republican Senate runoff. Trump endorsed Tuberville out of spite. I saw an article somewhere that claimed some democratic insiders considered Tuberville an easier target than Session, but I've figured Doug Jones is a goner regardless. But what the hell, fire up the :corn:

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  19. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon outta my way Administrator Formerly Important

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    If I had to pick a line I’d say 80/20 Tuberville/Jones. Most of the 20 is just a Trump/chaos hedge.
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  20. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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  21. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    So one Republican is launching a smear campaign against another Republican.
    :corn:
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  22. Elwood

    Elwood I know what I'm about, son.

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    Any money, even a single cent, the DNC spends on Jones’ campaign is a waste of resources.
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  23. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Pretty much the same story in Texas. Kentucky, however.... :chris:
  24. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    It all depends upon how one defines "waste." Statistically speaking, somebody, like Jones, who wins a seat via a special election, tends to lose the next time around, so, yeah, odds are anything the DNC spends there isn't going to help Jones keep his seat.

    But one of the reasons we're presently in this mess is that ages ago, the DNC decided to abandon a lot of places where they didn't think the odds were heavily in their favor. That means they've had no one on the ground to be able to blunt Republicans in a lot of places, and that really bit them in the ass in 2016. And now that's biting a lot of other people in the ass. Because, in my very red state, the areas controlled by Democrats are seeing lower rates of growth of Corona cases than places that are completely Republican-controlled. Had the DNC been willing to put more resources in this state in years past, we might not be in as bad as shape as we are now, even with a Republican governor dumber than Eric Trump.
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  25. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon outta my way Administrator Formerly Important

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  26. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Well, he did go 7-3 against Alabama :ramen:
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  27. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    Texas Republicans are looking to shake things up. Anybody want to explain why this is a good idea?

  28. MikeH92467

    MikeH92467 RadioNinja

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    Too many of the wrong people are voting. Dontcha see? Dontcha SEEEE?
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  29. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    Because then all they have to do is cling to power by a thread in THIS election ... then they get to draw the map for the next 10 years and maintain the legislature AND the governorship even when voters turn against them.
  30. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, duh, but I don't see how any rational person could describe that as a good idea.