2020 Presidential Primaries

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Nova, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    Biden will stay on top through the year thanks to higher name ID. And if this is a national poll then it's REALLY meaningless because all that matters right now is popularity in Iowa and New Hampshire. Once the winners and runner ups are decided in those two states we'll have a real picture of this race.
  2. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    After the way Biden stumbled and bumbled his way through that announcement speech (is extredible the new covfefe?), I'll be surprised if his lead lasts beyond two debates.
    • popcorn popcorn x 2
  3. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, except for the fact that GM's actions also hurt Ford and Chrysler, and that AMC benefitted tremendously thanks to what happened to Studebaker-Packard (as did Checker and Willys-Overland, both of whom remained in business long after Studebaker-Packard went tits up). Tucker wasn't brought down by anything that the Big Three did (at least directly). Radio host Drew Pearson called Tucker a fraud on his highly rated radio program, and that's when Tucker's funding dried up. Pearson, it should be remembered, said that Truman's Secretary of Defense, James Forrestal, was too harsh on Stalin, and was so critical of Forrestal that it drove him to suicide. No shit.
  4. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    Literally, the entire global economy is built on the idea of debt. Not saying that this is a good thing or not, just that this is the reality of the world we live in. Seriously. Apple, which has some $250+ billion in cash, borrows money to buy back stock due to tax advantages. How fucked up is that? You fuck with the Fed, and there's a good chance the global economy will go tits up.
  5. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Anti-Federalist

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    It’s almost like they’re too big to fail or something. It’s not like I’d make changes overnight. If you slowly transition, you won’t ruin the world’s economy.
  6. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    And how would you transition? Would you, for example, ban payday lenders? Or would you limit the amount of interest they could charge? Would you raise the minimum wage? Or would you get rid of it altogether? Without knowing the answers to such things, it's hard to predict what the impact might be.
  7. NAHTMMM

    NAHTMMM GLORIAAA!!

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    NYC mayor throws his hat in the ring. They're going to need a bigger ring.

    Apparently he's worked on mental health, housing costs, and preschool availability. Not bad priorities. The article paints him as prone to PR gaffes though, and with so many candidates people will be looking for any excuse to John Kerry someone out of being considered a serious contender.
    • Facepalm Facepalm x 2
  8. garamet

    garamet "The whole world is watching."

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    No...just no.
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  9. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    PR gaffes? Seriously? I think the US voters (hell all US citizens) are quite well versed since November 2016 in leaders that don't seem too occupied with how they are viewed by the public. :lol:
    Mental health, housing & preschool are a solid platform so that should give the guy a leg up.
  10. shootER

    shootER Insubordinate...and churlish Administrator

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    6FCB30EB-1974-4B9E-A7F5-A52B218A7D14.jpeg
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  11. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    Starts at 12:07. Go Bill, Go!
  12. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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  13. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    CHECK THIS OUT! You saw it here first WordForge! Beto O'Rourke rocking out in an awesome video! He's twitching and jerking and waving around like nobody's business.
    Trump wishes he had this kind of energy. 1:15 he really kicks it into high gear.
    You're welcome, Word Forge.

  14. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    So Biden supports the Hyde amendment. Wow that's gonna go over real well in the Democratic primary in 2020. Like, I can understand holding that position for the general election, but the primary?! He's nuts.
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  15. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    He voted for it so he might as well own it. I respect that far more than politicians whose positions change with the wind. But yes, the far left pro-taxpayer funded abortion crowd will hate it.
  16. Tererun

    Tererun Magical Girl

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    I would consider voting for him. He seems pretty reasonable.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    I have a new game.

    Every time Bernie Sanders yells, waggles his finger, or shakes his fist, I imagine Elizabeth Warren saying the exact same words in the exact same tone.

    Then I try to imagine how many articles there would be the next day headlined "Elizabeth Warren's image problem" from pundits opining that she's "unlikable," "a schoolmarm," and "a scold."
    • Winner Winner x 3
  18. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/06/06/po...e-amendment/index.html?r=https://www.cnn.com/

    Last week Biden was aiming for the general election and he said he wouldn't touch the Hyde amendment (which bans federal money paying for abortions) but after all his primary rivals attacked him on the ossue he suddenly flip flopped and now days he would work to repeal the Hyde amendment.

    Shit like this is why people don't believe politicians. They flip flop like the wind.
  19. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    Well then nevermind what I previously posted. Geez, what was it a day before he changed his mind?
  20. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    Someone just made a helluva point on @chrislhayes' show (I didn't catch the name of the guest) - now that Biden has switched n one of his core stands, now literally every past stand he ever took is going to be brought to him with the question "Do you still stand by this?"
  21. Tererun

    Tererun Magical Girl

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    It is the following of the crowd. I can give a person credit for evolving, but often that means you were not courageous enough to stand up for things until it was safe. On the other side of the coin is the republicans who are against any and all evolution in any way, including the literal evolution of species and science. I would consider biden's past and need for evolution to be one of his biggest weaknesses.
  22. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    https://thebulwark.com/why-elizabet...gFrVDyo8CHV7-WEc0dqHdWjE2cSlGAJQgA1ZejalxyMCE
  23. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    per 538, this is how things stand for the first debate. There's at least one more major poll dropping Saturday, a Des Moines Register Iowa poll.
    Given how the DNC fucked Steve Bullock, I hope he pulls 1% tomorrow and fucks up their scheme. If he does that puts eight campaigns in play for nine slots and Bullock is more worthy of the stage than some of these jokers (John Delaney for example). There's some sort of complex system that refers to poll averages but I don't know what to expect when most of these folks so low that RCP doesn't display their averages (nor are all the polls they count perfectly aligned with the ones RCP uses.
    Candidatepollsdonors
    Joe Biden✓✓
    Bernie Sanders✓✓
    Elizabeth Warren✓✓
    Kamala Harris✓✓
    Pete Buttigieg✓✓
    Beto O’Rourke✓✓
    Cory Booker✓✓
    Amy Klobuchar✓✓
    Andrew Yang✓✓
    Julian Castro✓✓
    Tulsi Gabbard✓✓
    Jay Inslee✓✓
    Marianne Williamson✓✓
    Bill De Blasio✓
    John Hickenlooper✓
    Michael Bennet✓
    Tim Ryan✓
    John Delaney✓
    Kirsten Gillibrand✓
    Eric Swalwell✓
    Steve Bullock
    Seth Moulton
    Wayne Messum
  24. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    so...broken format..you can sort it out. I ordered the top of the list according to the RCP averages at the moment.

    unless the debates really change the fortunes of the scrubs, the rules for the September debate would severely shorten the list. The requirement is at least 2% in at least 4 polls BUT - it only applies to polls between July 26 and late August. So history is only a guide, not controlling. Still, that line would limit the list to the first 7-8 candidates above. Maybe one or two of the others make enough of an impression in the first two debate cycles to get to that point.
    BUT
    You have to hit BOTH the polling requirement AND the donation requirement (which is double what it is for the first two debates)
    Given the fact that some of these lower folks still haven't reached the first threshold, that's a BIG ask and may well limit anyone else getting on the September stage.

    I expect that some of these will profess commitment, that by the first week of September at least half of those who don't make the cut will close up shop. And when the fundraising quarter ends more will drop. No more than a dozen will still be official by the time the Iowa Caucus happens and it could be as few as eight. that puts about 15-20% of nominal support back "in play" for the others. Some of the professed support for the leaders is soft too, particularly Biden. I expect him to be regularly polling under 30% by mid-August. And bleed even more through the fall.
  25. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    Elizabeth Warren Spends Evenings Tutoring Underperforming Candidates On Creating Comprehensive Policy

    AMES, IA—Hoping to give them the tools they will need to succeed in the 2020 election, White House hopeful Elizabeth Warren has been spending her evenings tutoring underperforming presidential candidates on how to craft comprehensive policy proposals, sources reported Thursday.

    “Given my expertise in this area, I think it’s important to reach out to candidates who have fallen behind when it comes to putting together a plan that will take the country where it needs to go,” said the Massachusetts senator who tutors Pete Buttigieg, John Hickenlooper, Julián Castro, and others each week, allowing them to submit ideas on issues from climate change to gun control so she can evaluate and give notes on their work. “It’s only a couple hours a week out of my campaign schedule, and I believe it’s my duty to help candidates who can’t help themselves. Some of them, like Beto or de Blasio, may never get it, but if I can reach even one of them, I’ll know I’ve done my job. It’s my way of giving back.”

    At press time, Warren had reportedly been forced to pull Joe Biden aside and lecture him after she discovered he was simply copying from the other candidates.​

    • Funny Funny x 1
  26. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    Morning Consult's May aggregate is up.

    As usual, I'm putting approval/disapproval over 10 points as solid, 5-10 points as likely, and less than 5 points as lean.

    [​IMG]

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/JW7Zd

    It's interesting how soft the plains states are looking ... although I can't really see any Democratic strategist advocating making a strong play for them, unless it was for the sake of some downballot race. Too many softer and more lucrative targets in the Rust Belt and the southeast.
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  27. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/06/10/joe-biden-democrats-2020-strategy-1358530

    It is looking more and more like Biden is the only democrat who can win in 2020. He is staying in the center and refusing to go after the loony extreme left. This means he can actually win those moderate swing states and not get tarred as an extremist the way literally all the other main contenders would be.

    If you care about beating Trump then that is the way to go.
    • Disagree Disagree x 3
  28. tafkats

    tafkats That'll put marzipan in your pie plate, bingo! Moderator

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    The "old news" candidate almost always loses.

    Biden is Walter Mondale. He's Mitt Romney. He's Hillary Clinton, but frankly, with much less ability and nowhere near as smart.
    • Agree Agree x 6
  29. Tererun

    Tererun Magical Girl

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    Does this count on the redistricting being forced on some of the previously red states? Oh, and I figure Floriduh is probably light blue but not yet registering because of it's change in allowing ex cons to register to vote.
  30. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    Having some extremist is highly unlikely to get you the moderate swing states.
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