Oh it's already considerably worse than that. This is, basically, the '16 Trump coalition: White Nationalists (a small group when carved out from any overlapping group) Christian Nationalist/Dominionists (in terms of who actually votes, about a third of active voters, though not but 15% or so of all eligible voters - some overlap with the first group) SUPER-loyal Republicans - "yellow dog" or whatever. Would vote for a Republican if God himself were the Democrat nominee. Habitual Republicans and Republican leaners who couldn't conceive of voting for, of all people, Hilary Clinton A bunch of unaffiliated folks who cast a "what the hell" vote - which is to say that they said to themselves "we've been voting all our lives and our shit ain't getting better so, what the hell, lets try something completely different" And all that still added up to a minority of votes, a significant minority of all votes cast. That last group is probably already gone completely - because this shit surely isn't working (Trump crowing about the stock market or unemployment doesn't move you when you're still stuck in a job with no wage growth in decades) The next-to-last group has to be smaller and Clinton isn't there to motivate them to overlook his flaws anymore. Both these could essentially evaporate altogether in terms of any significant impact on the totals. What that leaves him with is AT BEST 40% of the vote, possibly less. That's now, before the recession hits. Those other groups will never vote Dem but who knows how many of them stay home?