2020 Presidential Primaries

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Nova, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    TIL that Warren is not running any TV ads in Iowa, while many of the others are.
  2. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    my understanding is that they have buys in, just haven't started yet. Probably gonna really focus on the health care thing in some of them, her video on the subject today was real effective but not as short as a typical TV spot
  3. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    If only Pedro had returned the favor and danced for him.

    beto pedro.jpg
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  4. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    Klobachar? :huh: That name sounds made up.
  5. shootER

    shootER Insubordinate...and churlish Administrator

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    I think it’s a planet from the new SW movie.
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  6. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    this is what Klobachar (in an election) reminds me of:

    aliens.jpg
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  7. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    I mostly follow 538, fool. Nate Silver has a pretty good system for weighting and evaluating polls as well as one of the best records in the polling business.

    So one of us really is “damn stupid” but it isn’t who you think.
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  8. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    How does that profession confront literally a single damned fact I pointed out to you?

    Here's another: there are 14 major polls that have been published since the last debate. If you compare Warren's total in each to that same outlet's last pre-debate poll, and average the results she's down... a whopping .07%

    Just saying you rad reliable sources doesn't make your previous busted claim suddenly sound.
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  9. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    If you follow 538 I assume you read one of their most recent posts which specifically spoke against reading too much into individual polls at this stage?

    bronner-dispersed-correct.png
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  10. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    Trump net job approval by state, 11/2/19 via
    @Civiqs
    Louisiana +7 Missouri +7 South Carolina +6 Indiana +5 Utah +4 Ohio +2 Kansas +2 Texas +1 Alaska 0 Wisconsin -3 Georgia -5 Florida -6 Michigan -6 Iowa -7 North Carolina -9 Pennsylvania -9 Arizona -9
    https://t.co/qOEVLqYk6A?amp=1
    That's a winning EC map right there

    [​IMG]

    That's 250 EV from just states where he's -10 or worse. PA is -7 and that would get you to 270, MI and NC also -7 and GA -6
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
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  11. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    @Federal Farmer campaign for Tulsi! If she wins, she’s gonna expose all the conspiracies!

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  12. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Is there any past correlation between these sorts of questions and presidential election votes?
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  13. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon outta my way Administrator Formerly Important

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  14. Tuttle

    Tuttle Khaaaaaaaaaaann !!!

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    If you want to avoid a shock in 2020, you should mostly pay attention to (1) statewide polls, and never national, and (2) only polls that claim to survey *likely* voters (polling registered voters or population above voting age is less informative and more likely to be misleading).

    Sure the statewide polls were pretty wrong in 2016, but at least with them you'd be looking at the right thing. And obviously you only need to watch the several "battleground" states that are in play. [Disclaimer: 99% of polls are most/all garbage, except to their stakeholders, EEs, advertisers, etc.).]
  15. The Night Funky

    The Night Funky BMF Staff Member Moderator

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  16. Zombie

    Zombie dead and loving it

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    Bloomberg is making plans to wreck the Democrat field.

    Bloomberg makes preparations for 2020 run

    Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is preparing to file paperwork to qualify for the Democratic presidential primary in Alabama, ahead of a Friday deadline. The move would be a first step toward a national campaign, though Bloomberg has not made a final decision to run.

    "We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that," longtime Bloomberg aide Howard Wolfson said in an email. "If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist."

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/...-file-for-alabama-presidential-primary-000322
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  17. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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  18. Zombie

    Zombie dead and loving it

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    Hillary is now taking shots at Warren and her silly health care plan.

    Here's an article, that is biased of course, but I'm going to throw it in there for fun. ;)

    Obviously it's a biased article but Hillary keeps showing signs that she wants to run. Fundraising, interviews, and now "cautioning" Democrat candidates to not be too leftist. She's talking about the wealth tax and the medicare for all being too much and that it won't work.

    So now a question for the American lefties on this board......

    Let's say Hillary does jump in and manages to secure the nomination.

    Do you vote for her in the general election, vote for someone else, or not vote at all?
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  19. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    I think turning into a Trump supporter has broken your brain mate.
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  20. Zombie

    Zombie dead and loving it

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    No one asked you.
  21. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Sorry, I missed the posts asking you to post your insane theories.
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  22. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    Never saw them (state by state) before previous elections, not sure how long such surveys have been being done.
  23. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    If Gilbert Godfried got in and won the nomination I'd not only vote for dude but buy a tshirt and put a "Gilbert's Got This" bumper sticker on my car

    Doesn't matter.

    I mean I deeply distrust Tulsi but if she were the nominee...she still has several necessary qualities Trump never had.
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  24. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    Also, by the way, Clinton, Bloomberg, Holder is apparently musing...

    GOOD! Every new face in the "centrist" lane makes it harder for a centrist to be the nominee.

    Bring it on, bring it on!
    Also, while he'll fail miserably Bloomberg will give Warren what Steyer didn't (because Steyer is a progressive) - a living breathing standing-right-in-front-of-you example of the arrogant condescending billionaire protecting his fortune of the sort she's been kicking around for weeks. It's an outright gift to her if he gets in (and somewhat to Bernie.

    But as fun as that would be i have to note...

    Bloomberg aide says: “Its not about any one candidate.... He is worried about the state of the Democratic primary campaign and the possibility that we could lose in November. He wants to avoid that more than anything else.”


    IF this were actually true, he could DROWN activist orgs working to register votes, and jack up turnout, and identify unreached voters - and state and local parties and so many other things which would work to advance Dem wins at all levels. It would do VASTLY more good than being on the ticket himself, whether the nominee is Biden or Sanders or even Warren. Max out the turnout and ANY of them absolutely CRUSH Trump AND flip the Senate plus win god knows how many down-ballot races. There's only one obvious reason, apart from ego, who one wouldn't.
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  25. Tuttle

    Tuttle Khaaaaaaaaaaann !!!

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    The right would like nothing more than another Wallace or Mondale.

    I hope you are right, Nova. Sen Warren is practically there already - she only needs to admit her plans would need to raise middle class taxes too.
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  26. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    "a small soda in every pot!"

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  27. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    Just as many New Yorkers despise Trump because they know him better than most Americans, Bloomberg will most likely be despised along the same lines. Familiarity breeds contempt as they say.
  28. Damar

    Damar Liberal Elitist

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    It's funny how the base has to keep reminding the media that billionaires are egomaniacs who don't have common sense. Bloomberg entering the race elicits eye rolls from long time Democrats.
  29. Paladin

    Paladin Overjoyed Man of Liberty

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    Rejoice, Democrats! Your salvation is a white, male billionaire! :rofl:

    This clown car keeps rolling along. I would think Bloomberg throwing his hat into the ring would be good for Warren, since he'd tend to siphon moderate votes away from Biden.

    It's telling that a lot of people in the Democratic Party are worried about the current contenders. I think Warren is so far to the left, she's unelectable. And Biden is cruising along on Obama's reputation, but he isn't energizing anyone. It's going to come down to a knife fight between the moderates and the progressives. It's going to get ugly.
  30. Tererun

    Tererun Magical Girl

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    Oh, please do put the nail in Biden's casket and split the corporatist dem vote. Since warren and Bernie are probably both going to split the progressive vote giving Biden an advantage this would be great news.