Game of Morons: The UK General Election Thread

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Ebeneezer Goode, May 2, 2017.

  1. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    In case you missed the last thrilling season, the Yawnisters - led by Ser Cameron - came upon an unexpected victory, yet not long after, upon hearing he'd never see his fair EU again, Ser Cameron cast himself out of a tall tower leaving the Four Kingdoms to the mercies of TerMay Yawnister (cue dramatic music).

    The Starkravingmads, led by Ser Ed Miliband, came a cropper when young Ser Ed - what he lacked in brawn he made up for by his lack of wits - cast a great statue depicting his future deeds. Alas said great statue had a base of clay, and poor Ser Ed was crushed something awful beneath it (cue a wark-wark-wark noise), leaving their forces in disarray at the Battle of Dimbleby.

    And finally the Boreons, juggled by Ser Clegg, paid for their many betrayals by being almost wiped out.

    (cue the floppy-weiner, floppy-weiner theme)

    Current status is only the Tories are actually taking the election seriously. Realising they had a leader short on brain and spine, they've adopted a stance of having her parrot her lines and avoiding any possibility of proper debate on the basis of "better to keep your mouth shut and people think you're stupid rather than open it and remove all doubt." This has been very successful in that she's somehow become a popular leader.

    I mean, given the alternatives I can appreciate her being the most popular of the choices, but her ratings certainly don't match her actions.

    But the Daily Heilers, godbothers and "I-don't-vote-Tory-but-I-Do"'s are all locked in, and with Brexit it in the bag the UKIP thorn is out of the side and looking to soak up votes from working class Labour voters instead.

    They've even got Bojo to shut up unless unleashed, I can only assume they've a cabinet full of children's DNA tests he's been made aware of, and silence is better than having to shell out the annual GDP of Africa on a monthly basis to a small army of his bastards.

    And the shutting up stuff seems to be working, the other leaders aren't shutting up and maybe should, they'd likely lose less votes that way.

    Labour have tried to stop fighting amongst themselves long enough to commit electoral suicide - they're still battling over who represents what seat whilst the Tories are leafleting (all parties have made a few missteps, but Labour are actually reloading as there still remains bits of foot not yet shot off) - although this is expected due to the Resurrection of the Trots, an 80's comeback nobody wanted. They're not interested in winning elections, they want a revolution maaaaaan. Think a bunch of perma-students who can parrot off Marx, Engels and Zedong, but can't construct an argument or boil an egg. Real bright fucking sparks. And they've still not quite grasped that rape is wrong either, 30 fucking years and all they've done is vomit up Cro-Magnon Man with a hammer and sickle flag. And they wondered how the antediluvian 70's and 80's police managed to infiltrate them, yeah, real curious that.

    The LibDems are almost having a resurrection, alas Tim Farron, their leader, spent what felt like 40 days and 40 nights in the wilderness deciding if man-on-man buttsecks was a sin or not. He's a commited Christian, but a somewhat more committed politican, so gave a rather unconvincing response that no, he didn't think it sinful. He's a got a good record in voting for equal rights, but I suspect his local congregation watch the news more than they read up on how he voted and that was very much in his mind.

    They're hoping to get the Remain areas, but since even a lot of Remainers just want to get the Brexit pain over and done with it may not be the vote winner Timmy thinks.

    There's also the fact that by actually being in government a lot of LibDems felt betrayed. They didn't vote LibDem to see them in power, they voted LibDem because they liked the idea of higher taxes to pay for things, but not the actualite of it. That kind of thing could seriously dent the family holidays to Italy, the pilates classes and reassuringly expensive wines sank on a Saturday evening, so voting LibDem squared that circle. Those votes have now wandered over to the Greens, and I'm unsure they'll head back.

    And UKIP... Farage, like a big, fat toxic toad shitting in a dinky pond, casts his shadow. No longer leader, no now they've got someone who looks like a thug and speaks like an imbecile after Farage acted to remove the first leader to replace him. It was like House of Cards had it been written by Stephanie Meyer.

    So, yes, looking like a Tory win with them extending their majority, and with Labour still having an existential crisis, it's also looking like a mix of the Tory Awkward Squad and the more left-leaning media outlets will be the actual opposition. At this point I think I'd cheerfully discard democracy for a few years and have the bloody Queen rule, that might focus a few minds.

    End of the TL;DR! :D
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  2. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    That was quite a lot of typing but very creative. You earned your posrep.

    Anyway, yes, May kind of slid into the position but she is doing well with the cards she has plus she really has no incentive to go off script as she is up 15-17 points in the polls. Scheduling new debates can only hurt her not help her so why take the chance?

    Wrt. Brexit she is delivering what voters voted for and it is a shame Junckers, displaying his usual incompetence, is refusing to negotiate about trade because he wants to punish the UK for daring to tell his unelected ass no. Right now he is busy making absurd money demands for tens of billions, he wants the UK to keep paying dues to the EU forever even though it will not be a member, and attempting to block any trade negotiations. The UK should just say no and immediately began negotiating with willing partners who actually do want to get a deal done.

    The worst case scenario is WTO rules which have a max tariff of only 2.5% and that difference can easily be made up by increases in efficiency and new markets. Eventually, Junckers will get the boot and new Eu leadership will come in who actually wants to get a deal done so just ignore Junckers antics and hold out until that happens.
  3. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    Well, the UK GE isn't as fun as the US Presidential one, so I figured I'd liven it up a little.

    The EU are playing dirty, which shouldn't be a surprise, in negotiations like these it's often the slips that help drive events, and I've zero doubt that Number 10 hadn't a clue about how the EU wanted to go about things.

    We do need to immediately begin trade talks with non-EU nations, EU rules are often highlighted by members breaking of them rather than the observance, so the UK would be in good company in ignoring them.

    I would be happy if May simply stated we'll go down the WTO route, simply as that'd light a fire up Merkel's arse - a large portion of Germany's growth over the last few years has been tied to the UK, so if she wants Germany to wear a hair shirt to prove a point I'm quite sure the likes of AfD will cheerfully capitalize on it. We know France will be awkward, they're experts in differentiating between the letter and the intent, and after any agreement they'll play silly sods. A nice supermarket at Calais specialising in subsidised South American wines marketed as Argentinian Champagne, and cheeses such as Derbyshire Brie should focus French minds wonderfully.

    As for May herself, much as I'm glad she reversed the NI increase it nevertheless displays that she's prone to collapsing under pressure. That's a worry.
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  4. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    Well, May has been a tad impolitic there... Claiming the Brussels Bureaucrats have timed their current spinning campaign to try an influence the GE. Well, yes, but it is terribly impolite to point that out, and likely to enrage them.

    Kudos to May for taking the EU's games and spinning it to her benefit, it's going to look like the EU has tried bullying the UK and only Sainted Theresa has had the balls to see those naughty continental-types off. It's all bollocks of course, it reads like Juncker wants to be awkward - he's never forgiven the UK for Cameron's attempts to block his ascent to the EC Presidency - so he's creating a problem, so it's not the EU itself that is being awkward and on anti-UK manoeuvres, but it's the EU that will get the blame.

    Juncker's rather clunky move is now likely to badly backfire, and Barnier is going to find more difficult than ever to negotiate a deal as most of the rEU are going to get incredibly pissed at the UK as our press will spend the next few weeks demonising them. I'm expecting some bad WW2-influenced headlines from the Murdochs.

    I think the EU is going to test that 'no deal is better than a bad deal' claim of May's, which suits neither side. The EU needs a divorce settlement from us (a very short-term patch to EU finances, the Polands aren't going to want less money, and the Germanys aren't going to want to put more in, so that's going to be an awkward conversation and if they can get the UK to cover some of shortfall...) and we need clarity with services exports (physical exports aren't an issue, WTO tariffs are offset by the drop in Sterling.)

    Hopefully someone will shut Juncker and May up so the adults can get on with things.
  5. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    Reportedly Junckers told May that he wants to make sure Brexit is not a success and that he will do everything possible to make sure no deal is reached and that he creates as many roadblocks as possible. In short, he is a bad faith actor and for better or worse that makes the EU a bad faith actor.

    The UK should make a good faith offer which takes into account both assets and liabilities but none of the "I demand free money forever" garbage from Junckers then... Just suspend all talks until someone rational and fair gets appointed to the EU's helm. There is no point wasting time on a bad faith actor, make sure not a single penny changes hands until a free trade deal is fully implemented, and just spend your time negotiating trade deals with people who do actually want to make mutually beneficial deals.
  6. RickDeckard

    RickDeckard Socialist

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    Is May claiming that Juncker is trying to make Corbyn the PM?
  7. matthunter

    matthunter Antira

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    Meh. Both sides are at the "we will get everything we want" stage of the rhetoric, which will morph into the "we got more than they wanted us to get" arse-covering reality.

    See Trump's statements on the wall for more details.
  8. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    No, just that the leaks indicate meddling with the election, which was likely Juncker's intent.

    She's not named names, just gone for the nebulous bogeyman though, which will likely garner a few UKIP votes Torywards, which ought to worry Labour. If the Leavers vote Tory and the Remainers vote LibDem, then Labour are reliant on a core vote that are rather split on Corbyn coming out to vote, otherwise they'll lose seats.

    If Juncker's schemes continue with this level of success I do hope he gets a dog - and calls it Muttley.
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  9. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    They are certainly trying to help the opposition parties.
  10. Minsc&Boo

    Minsc&Boo Fresh Meat

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    How bad would it be for may, If Scotland left the UK?
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  11. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    Further more Junckers making retarded threats about how he wants Gibraltar to go to Spain, Northern Ireland to leave the UK, and the Falklands to go to Argentina just shows what an ass clown and bad faith actor Junckers is. None of those things will happen and it just makes it clear he is not an ally or friend so much as a human shape blob of feces.

    I would very much like to see Trump weight in with a hard line that if you want to be a friend and ally then you have to stop trying to stab other supposed friends and allies in the back. Greece is still tits up while Italy, Spain, and Portugal are on a knife's edge wrt their finances. Announce the US will veto all IMF and World Bank involvement in the bailouts or even just refinancing of public debt by US financial institutions until the EU unfucks itself. Then see what happens when the shoe is on the other foot. Greece will default this month without another bailout so let's get the clock ticking and inform them the vetos won't stop until confidence is restored by the EU getting new leadership. The unelected Junckers either goes or the money spigot stays shut.
  12. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    That won't happen. Poll numbers show Pro-UK feeling is higher now than during the last failed "once in a generation" referendum.
  13. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    It wouldn't, a Jocksit would lock the rUK into Tory control for 10-20 years until there was a political rebalance - so much as many Tories may waffle on about the primacy of the Union, I suspect a number are salivating at the prospect on turning representation into tenure.

    As @Dinner says though, it's unlikely to happen - the SNP are also going to find out the only direction from the top is down too. I'll be surprised if they hold onto all their seats, Brexit and Neverendum part deux are at least partially covering some of their embarrassments.
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  14. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    I'd be quite happy to see NI go. Once upon a time I wouldn't, but the Irish are slowly dragging their overly-religious arses towards the mid 20th century, so they're heading towards the Scottish model of sectarian hatred of just beating each other up after sporting events, glowering meaningfully and muttering darkly. Not exactly pleasant, but not semtex unpleasant.

    The paramilitaries will still be knocking about, but since they're now more interested in playing at being Mafia than soldiers they're rapidly heading towards more of a domestic police problem than a terrorism problem. I've no doubt a few True Believers will still be around though.

    Gibraltar is still a useful and, along with Cyprus to a greater extent, the EU will be cordially informed by the US to shut the fuck up about it. At which point Spain is going to feel very, very isolated if it wants to keep it up, so they'll just go back to slowing things down at the border for 'security reasons'.

    Argentina have quietened down over the Falklands, mainly as they've been wooing the UK as an export market in light of Brexit. Give it another 50 years, and they'll likely be in joint ownership - they would be now had the Argentinians not invaded the fucking place, in the 70's there were discussions about such things as part of cost cutting, but noooo, the UK reduces it's presence in light of such talks and they take it as an invitation to invade.
  15. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    I don't even see joint ownership in 50 years mainly because the Falklands Islanders themselves are obsessed with being more British than the British and thus will not willingly join Argentina. Self determination and all that.
  16. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    Well, local and Mayoral elections were yesterday and whilst not an exact pointer of what will happen in the GE, it makes unpleasant reading for Labour and UKIP.

    These elections are usually the time the incumbent government gets a bloody nose, now with the GE around the corner that has doubtlessly been blunted a little, but still I'd have expected Labour gains and some Tory losses, but it's been the other way around.

    UKIP are effectively wiped out as it stands, all they really have left - amusingly enough - are their MEPs as far as I can see.

    And Labour have seen a 5%-6% swing to the Tories which, if reflect in the GE, will see Labour bleed seats.

    After the last GE loss it was decided the reason was that Labour wasn't left-wing enough, a decision that rung rather hollow back then and now sounds an awful lot like utter stupidity. If Corbynistas retain power over the party after the GE, the UK's only hope of a counterbalance to the Tories will be the Labour moderates creating a new party, which will face something of upward struggle with a now split Labour voter base. Of course the Labour vote is split now, however it is deeply unlikely the harder left will let go of it now that it has a good grip of the party and angling for stronger control.

    There's a sense of facepalming in that Labour have spent the last couple of weeks celebrating 20 years since they won the 97 election at a canter, and yet have apparently learned nothing from that. New Labour were a shower of shits, but they recognised how the UK public generally were* and catered to them accordingly, however the New Labour brand got so toxic it appears Labour have chucked out the electability baby along with the Mandelson bathwater.

    *small 'c' conservative economically, and much closer to libertarian than authoritarian socially. I sometimes wonder what would've happened had the Victorian era not been so repressive.
  17. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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  18. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    That happens in the US sometimes too.
  19. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39816044

    There is no end to Junckers clownish statements. Today he declared the English language is losing its importance and that he want official EU debates to be conducted in French. The problem is even with the UK gone there are more English speakers in the EU than French speakers by a very large margin. Hell, world wide there are around two billion more English speakers so this is the equivalent of Europe crawling up its own asshole.

    This is a blatant attempt to influence French elections just like he was blatantly attempting to meddle in UK elections. The man is an EU version of Donald Trump, all ego and bad ideas, with even less competence as at least Trump managed to win an election something Junckers has never done.
  20. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    Well, it's not working out too well for him.

    May was a Remainer and, until they opted to humiliate her some months back, seemed to be quite pro-EU.

    We're starting to get the measure of the kind of PM she is - very vindictive. She's quite happy to fold under pressure, unless she feels slighted, in which case she'll park any and every tank she can find on your lawn until the amount of smoking ruins soothes her wounded ego.

    It's not a very good attitude for a leader to have, however given the EU's crass and spiteful games she could be what we need. Normally you expect a politician to weather the leaks and veiled (and not so veiled) insults and make the compromise, she just seems to dig her heels in more which I think is something we need with the EU. As we've seen with Greece, the EU has little but scorn for anyone seeking long-term solutions that it finds difficult to digest, it prefers a series of short-term ones regardless of the damage they may cause.

    I'd also be inclined to drop off a book about German history, specificially the inter-world-war period, on the potential consequences of starting off with an intent to punish. Whilst the UK won't parallel Weimar Germany - our economic links are too strong for that - fomenting an increase in anti-EU attitude could lead us to face away from Europe, which would be a shame from a social, political and cultural perspective, as well as a danger (albeit not from the UK) if we reduced our military co-operation on the continent.
  21. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    And the Tories have announce an Ed Miliband policy :lol:

    The problem with the UK energy market was Labour allowing vertical integration, this means the energy companies can plead poverty with thin profit margins on energy supplies, whilst ensuring big fat margins further downstream.

    So they plan to fix a piece of Labour (well, Ed Miliband) economic illiteracy with... A piece of Labour (erm, Ed Miliband again) economic illiteracy.

    What could possibly go wrong with that? It's politically risky, mainly as whilst tackling energy poverty is a good thing, opening yourselves up to your own condemnations when they other side suggested it isn't.

    Reapplication of the pre-Nu Labour regulations should be the first step in bringing down some of the costs, along with an evaluation of some of the environmental policies - unfortunately green policy tends to get waved along, regardless of whether they're any good or not. One example is the current subsidisation of wood burning by the likes of Drax, it's a bit of a scam, and the pretence it is carbon neutral is laughable. Expensive and doesn't help the environment a jot.
  22. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    If they want to bring down energy prices then they should be focusing on increasing energy supply. The UK has tremendous natural gas potential so deregulate and put a favorable tax regime in place to encourage it's further development. For electricity wind and solar are now cheaper than coal so push those heavily in the legal and regulatory framework. Simply by removing legal barriers which hold up wind projects (things like allowing Trump to sue over off shore wind near his golf course in Scotland) then you will get more production.
  23. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    Solar is limited in the UK (north of Birmingham we don't enough sunlight to biologically create vitamin D, powering cities is a no sadly), at least until the next generation of panels make an appearance, and wind is only cheap due to the subsidy.

    Offshore wind will, I suspect, come to be seen as a mistake - no one has done any studies on what mid-to-long term effect salt water (very corrosive stuff) and the erosive effects of currents will have on the generators, plus it's bloody pricey wiring them into the grid. And, as Germany has found out, moving it from where it needs to be from where it is generated isn't easy - their solution is to dump it on their increasingly irritated neighbours in the north, and then grab their neighbours (non-renewable generated) power in the south. Doubly so since Poles and Czechs have been actively blocking the German power. It's why I chuckled when Germany announced a day only on renewables - sure, if Goldman Sachs are doing the figures.

    We could certainly use solar to a reasonable extent, still looking at getting some on my properties, but I think we need to change the grid a little - something I'd like to see.

    I'd like to see us shift over to mix of nuclear/gas/renewables, but it needs to be thought out rather than the current ad hoc system of throwing money at vested interests, be they Green, French or Chinese, and looking surprised when we're getting overcharged.
  24. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    Actually, solar does fill a much needed role even in the far north. Read up about the Isle of Eigg and Eigg Electric. It is a small island off the northern coast of Scotland without a utility connection to the mainland so they had to come up with their own low cost all renewable energy solution.

    Now, solar output is low for nine months out of the year but during summer when it doesn't rain and when winds are typically calm it forms the backbone of their system. The rest of the year wind and microhydro run the show.
  25. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    You've kind of made my point for me, Eigg supports ~100 people in an area of under 12 square km, which is around 5% of the density of England and something like 8% of the UK as a whole. There is no way that could be scaled up UK-wide.

    Lets try plonking a couple of car factories, a few 40 floor office buildings, a fully operation hospital and a busy airport and start the clock at midnight January 1st.

    Somehow I doubt it'd make an entire minute.

    Renewables have a place, but it requires a much greater depth of planning than most governments have done so far. Solving the storage would a great boon, and I really hope we nail it in the next few years.
  26. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    I am saying solar will not be a primary source but even in the far north it needs to be part of the mix.
  27. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    ^As far as it being used domestically I agree, but expectations it'll make much of a dent is, sadly, a fantasy. What a lot of the greenwashing data fails to mention is the carbon footprinted baseloads, and the UK chase for renewables has led to our spare capacity to be razor thin. Any benefits gained from renewables are wiped out pretty quickly when you add in the STOR usage, around a quarter of which is filthy diesel generators, which are pretty bad for the environment as well as hefty CO2 producers.

    That article is 2 years old and things have gotten worse since. There needs to be some sanity and recognition of where renewables work best, and implement them, and then build up some new gas fired stations and use gas.
  28. Ebeneezer Goode

    Ebeneezer Goode Gobshite

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    Labour's draft manifesto has been leaked... They're trying to spin it as a positive, but really it's not, mainly as it doesn't pass the smell test.

    I'll do a Good, Bad and the Ugly of it tomorrow as I've beach with my name on it, but whilst there are some good points it is mainly the unrealistic wet dreams of a party who'd shit themselves after 2 years in power.
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  29. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...against-plans-European-Free-Trade-Association

    Great news for rhe UK. The EFTA members said they would gladly let tge UK join in the event Junckers and Co's plan to block free trade actually happens. This would preserve free market access but at the draw back of still having to keep free movement including for welfare migrants. The UK would see this as a temporary measure until a seporate free trade agreement is signed.

    On the upside that means the two year deadline is now a nonissue. Juncker's plan was to delay, delay, delay and try to threaten the UK with lose of free trade unless they agree to a bad deal. So fuck Junckers and the EU.
  30. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon outta my way Administrator Formerly Important

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    I feel like a lot has changed in the last two weeks. Any on the ground updates from our bad teethed friends?
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