Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by garamet, Sep 22, 2014.
Who didn't see this coming?
Not just oil, but all fossil fuels.
And this is a big deal for what reason?
The people responsible for creating the oil industry and one of the largest monopolies in US history are now bailing on that industry. It's like Bill Gates dumping his tech stocks and moving to an Amish community.
Because where the Rockefellers lead, their peers will follow, and their mega investment in the climate change deniers will follow as well.
Once the oil companies changed their name to "energy companies" and started buying up patents in renewables, it was only a matter of time before they shifted focus.
As soon as they can figure out how to charge us for the sun and the air (they and other industries have been buying up water rights for quite a while now), coal and petroleum usage will become as passe as whale oil.
I can become passe all they want.
Fossil fuels will be the predominant vehicle fuel for decades.
Have you noticed that gas prices are falling? This is despite the fact that shit's getting blown up all over the Mid-East, normally that'd cause a spike in prices. Fuel consumption in America is down, and has been trending downwards for a while now. People are driving less, car pooling more, riding mass transit, and opting for hybrid and electric cars in record numbers. The market is shrinking, and if you're locked into fossil fuels when things decide to flip, you're bankrupt.
The reason fuel prices are going down is a slight dip in domestic consumption and a humongous surge in domestic production and refining.
The reason consumption is down is a crappy economy.
Those hippies at Forbes Magazine disagree with you.
Falling prices will only help to stimulate economic growth, as it becomes cheaper to ship goods around. And Apple somehow managed to sell a record breaking 10 million new iPhones in just 3 days, so the economy isn't that bad. I doubt they'd have been able to do that in '08 or '09, no matter what gee whiz features they had on their new phones.
Agree. Whale oil dropped from the economy for two reasons: 1) it had become very scarce; 2) a better and cheaper alternative had arrived. The same thing will kill oil some day, but now is not that day. Neither condition is true for oil at the moment.
It all depends upon if folks are willing to make the effort. 10 years ago, a group of energy consultants and Reagan officials put forth a proposal on how the US could ditch the internal combustion engine in about a decade for a cost of $100 billion. Instead, we chose to invade Iraq at 10 times the price.
Honda and Toyota will both have fuel cell powered cars on the market next year, at a slightly higher price than gas powered models. Tesla's claiming that once they get their new battery factory online, they'll be able to produce electric cars at vastly lower prices, and california's governor Jerry Brown has proposed new initiatives to increase the number of electric cars on the road.
With those elements in place, were there to be a push from the Feds, or a coalition of some of the states, you could see gasoline powered cars losing their dominance in as little as a decade.
I agree, in 15-20 years I expect the majority of vehicles sold will be hybrid or fully petrol-free. We're not quite at the tipping point yet, but once electric vehicles become more mass market viable it will be a swift adoption:
Sure, the vehicle fleets are heading in that direction, but mainly through induced demand. That still won't banish oil as our primary energy source, it just moves one of the places that it's used from the internal combustion engine to more power plants (gotta charge those batteries).
Don't get me wrong, I prefer conservation and renewables, but until we are able to economically account for pollution, oil will continue to dominate for a few more decades.
Listened to a lengthy science podcast that shows we just might be heading into that long sought after "fusion era", promised by Star Trek IV, and Back To The Future II.
A few years ago I would have agreed with you, but I think we've crossed a tipping point with those in the influential places. Not only do we have hippies pushing for it now, but the states, industry leaders and China are all going that way. I think once you see a quarter of all new cars be alternative energy models, the changeover to them domination will be only a year or two.
My comments were directed at gul, Dicky snuck in there when I was typing.
So what's the broadcast?
It's an hour and change, very dry, not a show-y show, and the technobabble will make your eyes glaze.
Forbes doesn't agree with you, either. You said people were driving less. :/
Not only are they in fact driving less, it's got nothing to do with what you called "a crappy economy" .
Lots of good points in this thread.
I'm doing my part. I switched from a 16-18mpg Jeep to a 38-40mpg Fit as my commuter vehicle. If my example is even close to typical, that's a significant dip in demand for gas. Tho if the number of ludicrously oversized SUVs I still see on the road are any indication, maybe not.
I've also heard that GenY and the Millennials are simply less interested in owning a car and driving than previous generations have been. Most of 'em seem to prefer Ancalagon's urban utopia model, which means walking/bicycling/public transit instead of POV. So there's another dip in demand.
Economy is still somewhat down, so another dip.
Of course, we'll be hearing about a spike in prices in about another month as the oil companies are once again taken by surprise by the fact that it gets cold in winter and people use more fuel oil and gas and stuff.
Gen Y and millennials want cars, they just have trouble affording them.
If Tuckerfan wants to believe in something enough, any source will do. Leaked nuTron sequel poster agrees!
If anyone wants investment advice, read Dayton's, RonPaul's, and Volpone's posts, then do the opposite.
I switched from a 23mpg 1s gen Odyssey to a 2nd gen Fit five years ago (it's more like 35mpg on a freeway commute, hoser). But I carpool effectively doubling my mpg.
What was the topic? Are you on fitfreak? that would be weird.
I prefer Ancalagon's urbantopia, but don't call me a Gen-Y or Milenial just because I walk, train, and cycle. Those guys are losers for reasons having nothing to do with travel habits.
Is "fitfreak" a website? At any rate, I just got my Fit two weeks ago. Did my due diligence, found it rated best in class, almost zero negative reviews, test drove one, bought one.
I bought it because it's cute as a bunny and makes the girls swoon.
ahh then you're one of those snobby 3rd gen'ers. You get 13HP more and higher mpg (don't scoff, that's 10% better HP). (fitfreak is a bbs)
Nope. We prefer data plans to car payments and being online chatting/reading/interacting with friends to being trapped in traffic beating on a stearing wheel and yelling at the assholes in our way.
It's not just vehicle ownership that is down, but miles driven for those that do own and even bothering to get a license.
The privately owned vehicle is on it's way out.
my children agree. well my daughter. She's a hippy freak in manhattan. my son luvs him some hydrocarbons here in cobb county.
Separate names with a comma.