Ron Paul believes Taiwan can suck it down if China invades?

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Midnight Funeral, Jul 1, 2007.

  1. Midnight Funeral

    Midnight Funeral CĂșchulainn

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    I heard this claim but I haven't seen much about it. It is alleged that RP favors a severing of the defense treaty with Taiwan - in essence, if Paul is president and China invades, Taiwan needn't look to America to save them.

    Anyone know the truth or not here?

    Also if true what do you think of that stance?
  2. Bulldog

    Bulldog Only Pawn in Game of Life

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    Ron Paul doesn't believe that the US should be involved in the disputes of other countries. We've had enough of that over recent decades with disastrous results. He looks toward George Washington's Farewell Address for that.
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  3. Marso

    Marso High speed, low drag.

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    I'm not inclined to disagree with him. What the fuck does Taiwan do for us?
  4. Dayton Kitchens

    Dayton Kitchens Wonderful, Loving Husband & Father

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    George Washington was the leader of a small, weak, culturally divided United States and he was very worried that the European powers would use the U.S. as a battlefield for their disputes. As happened during the French & Indian War.

    Were Washington to see the United States now I would bet his beliefs would change considerably.
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  5. Dayton Kitchens

    Dayton Kitchens Wonderful, Loving Husband & Father

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    We have more trade with them than mainland China.

    Taiwans defeat and occupation by the mainland could arguably hurt the U.S. economy more than severing ties with the mainland would.
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  6. Sean the Puritan

    Sean the Puritan Endut! Hoch Hech!

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    Well, call it insignificant or not, but I bet dollars to doughnuts that the motherboard (at least) in the PC you typed that post with was manufactured in Taiwan.
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  7. Chris

    Chris Federalist

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    And that would be super if we hadn't spent the better part of a century holding their back.

    We're better than that. :jayzus:
  8. Marso

    Marso High speed, low drag.

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    Why? Would we suddenly stop trading with them if they hoisted another flag over the island? Or would our trade with China suddenly see a sharp increase as it rose to match the level of our trade with the former Taiwan?
  9. Marso

    Marso High speed, low drag.

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    Would a Chinese invasion mean that Taiwan would stop making motherboards? Or that we couldn't buy them from some other place, or even, God forbid, from companies here at home?

    I'm not seeing the harm. In terms of motherboard consumption, that is. A slight price increase, maybe. But Taiwan isn't the only place that bolts together computer components.
  10. Dayton Kitchens

    Dayton Kitchens Wonderful, Loving Husband & Father

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    China would have to inflict great amounts of damage on Taiwan to force their capitulation.

    Chances are, Taiwans economy would be severely damaged for years. This would have a domino effect throughout the Pacific Rim.

    Possibly even triggering a major global recession.
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  11. Marso

    Marso High speed, low drag.

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    Dayton, I do believe you're talking out the ass again.

    1. Without American intervention, you don't know what would happen. Taiwan might fold overnight without a shot being fired.

    2. I think you seriously overestimate Taiwan's impact on the Pacific Rim.

    3. Global recession? Put down the crack pipe.

    Dude, serious question: have you ever been outside Arkansas?
  12. Linda R.

    Linda R. Fresh Meat

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    Not to defend the Chinese leaders - who I think are total shits - but, to be honest, the Taiwanese could learn an awful lot from Macao and Hong Kong.
  13. Sean the Puritan

    Sean the Puritan Endut! Hoch Hech!

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    I don't have the answers. :shrug:

    I would say that in the case of an invasion, the military blockade would prevent motherboards from being shipped out.

    Sure, they could be manufactured elsewhere, but it takes time to tool up a factory to make shit like that, and currently I can't think of one company that doesn't make all of their motherboards in Taiwan. That doesn't mean some don't make them elsewhere, I just don't know of any that do.

    Maybe South Korea.
  14. Powaqqatsi

    Powaqqatsi Haters gonna hate.

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    Not only that, their political idealogies are very similar to ours. The mainland, on the other hand, is very different.

    edit: I should add that we have in the past pledged to give them support in such a situation.
  15. Cervantes

    Cervantes Fighting windmills

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    After having been through both China and Hong Kong, I can't honestly say that I believe China "conquering" Taiwan would do really do anything.

    Hong Kong still has its own laws, it's own judicial system, and its own currency.

    Taiwan already has "special" Visa status with China, just as Hong Kong does.

    What reason, given all of that, do we have to believe that China would do anything to drastically change Taiwan?
  16. Chris

    Chris Federalist

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    There was a story on the BBC World about how Hong Kong is chafing for political freedom. :shrug:
  17. Chris

    Chris Federalist

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    That's not what this is about.

    It's about the change in the political waters after the Communists are *finally* in complete and utter control. Nobody knows what they'll do, but I'm pretty sure it'll just make them bolder and frankly, that worries me.
  18. Cervantes

    Cervantes Fighting windmills

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    Bolder to do what?

    Invade?

    Who would they invade?
  19. Powaqqatsi

    Powaqqatsi Haters gonna hate.

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    China doesn't have any plans in this area, except if it feels forced to flex its muscle. The last elected president in Taiwan ran on the platform of Taiwanese independence. If Taiwan wasn't actively trying to break away from mainland China, China wouldn't really be interfering with them at all.

    Frankly, I agree with thelurker, Taiwan should take a note from Hong Kong, and just sit back and enjoy the status they have now.
  20. Midnight Funeral

    Midnight Funeral CĂșchulainn

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    I think the US defense pact with Taiwan is a good idea.

    It shouldn't be disbanded, simply because Taiwan is a free western-esque democracy, while China is an authoritarian communist dictatorship where freedom and justice don't translate.

    I don't care what some guy 200 years ago thought about "entangling alliances", the fact is it's just bloody bad sport to sit back and watch the army of an aggressive dictatorship put a small neighboring free western-model democracy under the boot, without doing anything to help them.

    I'm not saying all their fighting should be done for them, but other nations with a system and with values similar to those of Taiwan should add to Taiwan's own capabilities sufficient as to enable them to defeat the Chinese aggression.

    The irony is the situation of Taiwan today is close to that of the USA in 1776. One of the key reasons that the colonists were able to win the revolutionary war is that they had the strong support of France (yes, France!). Can you imagine if France had just said "fuck em, what's in it for us". Where would America be today....?
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  21. Excelsius

    Excelsius Dreamer of Dreams

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    Just for the record, Taiwan's trade with the United States was $45 billion as of 2002.

    China's trade with the U.S. as of 2006 was $343 billion, or more than half the entire gross domestic product (purchasing power parity) of Taiwan in 2006. Taiwan both imports and exports more from China than to or from the U.S. The U.S. ranks third in each direction of trade with Taiwan.

    Sources:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan (for U.S.-Taiwan trade figure)

    http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html (for U.S.-China trade figure)

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/tw.html (for GDP (PPP) and import and expore figures)
  22. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    This isn't 1796. Isolationism by the US would destabilize the current world situation, and that could have profound effects on the US, as the world has gotten a hell of a lot smaller in the last 200 years.

    Losing Taiwan wouldn't hurt the US more than breaking off relations with mainland China, but it would cause a short term destabilization in the Pacific Rim that could have profound effects on larger matters - such as Japan.

    And yes, Taiwan has made it quite plain that they would fight.

    Personally I think the PRC knows it has a lot more to gain by friendly trade and relations throughout the region than it does by 'reunifying' with Taiwan.
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  23. Quest

    Quest not leaving Staff Member Administrator

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    There was a lot in it for France. That's why they helped. :wtf:

    They weren't acting based on any of the idealistic reasons you mention.
  24. Excelsius

    Excelsius Dreamer of Dreams

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    Why would China's assimilation of Taiwan be any more damaging than the return of Hong Kong to China?

    Here are the comparative trade figures for Hong Kong and Taiwan, as of 2006 (all figures are estimates in U.S. dollars):

    EXPORTS:

    Hong Kong: $611.6 billion (includes re-exports)
    Taiwan: $215 billion

    IMPORTS:

    Hong Kong: $329.8 billion
    Taiwan: $205.3 billion

    As you can see, Hong Kong's figures are much larger than Taiwan's.

    See:

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/hk.html (Hong Kong)

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/tw.html (Taiwan)
  25. Cervantes

    Cervantes Fighting windmills

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    Well, why should we help them? To be nice?


    I don't see it as ironic. The only reason France helped us was so they could destabilize Britain and make it weaker.
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  26. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon outta my way Administrator Formerly Important

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    B/c instead of a political handover negotiated over decades, it would a bloody war with both sides fighting to the death?
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  27. Excelsius

    Excelsius Dreamer of Dreams

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    That wasn't initially implied in the message to which I replied, which specifically mentioned "trade" but did not say how Taiwan was to be returned. In the context of the thread in its then-currrent state, the issue of the assimilation of Taiwan included discussion of both peaceful and violent means. Neither that message nor my use of "assimilation" necessitated the assumption that it had to be done through warfare, despite Taiwan's inclinations.

    If the return of Taiwan was accomplished peacefully, there would be little, if any, disruption.

    There is every indication that internal dissension in Taiwan has weakened it in such a way that a withdrawal of U.S. support would necessitate an accounting for the losses it would face if it should face China militarily. Realize that this discussion contemplates the withdrawal of U.S. support. While it may be true that Taiwan currently desires to fight, the equation would be changed considerably were the United States to cancel its treaty obligations in its defense. Realism on the part of the Taiwanese would result in a much different calculation of their own interests.
  28. Ancalagon

    Ancalagon outta my way Administrator Formerly Important

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    I do think the U.S. withdrawl would cause Tiawan to rethink it's stance, not on China, but Non-proliferation. Is that what we want?
  29. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    Complete nonsequitor.

    If Taiwan choses to reunite with the PRC, the United States will do absolutely nothing about it.

    The original topic specifically was broached over the concept of a specific political candidates outlook on Taiwan if the PRC invaded.
  30. BearTM

    BearTM Bustin' a move!

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    And Ron Paul doesn't believe in standing by our long term allies. In other words, he's not an honorable man.
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