The 2020 Presidential General Election thread

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Order2Chaos, Jun 17, 2020.

  1. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    Biden and Trump have clinched the nominations. The LP has nominated Jo Jorgenson, and the Green Party will almost certainly nominate Howie Hawkins (he's 3 delegates short, with 2.5x as many as his nearest challenger). There's still a number of primaries left for other races, but general election presidential polls are starting to come in, and it seems like a stretch to keep putting them in the primaries thread.

    So here it is.
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  2. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-latest-swing-state-polls-look-good-for-biden/

    Do they really look good, though? Trump supporters don't think so: https://news.yahoo.com/thinking-landslide-beyond-d-c-083042948.html

    To a second approximation -- is the D+ margin at least as large as the difference between Trump's outperformance and Clinton's outperformance -- they don't to me either. These are polls-only numbers, and those turned out to largely underestimate both Trump and Clinton, but usually much more Trump than Clinton. Indeed, there are only 2 swing states that I'm at all comfortable with the polling margins: Arizona and Michigan (and of those, MI more than AZ)

    I could probably dig another level down, and use the 2016 break ratio of undecideds applied to the current size of the undecided pool, and I'll do that later. But right now I'm real concerned about a Trump EC victory with potentially a 12-point popular vote loss right now. At the moment, I'm looking at Trump 289, Biden 249 (NE-2 and ME-2: Trump; NV, NH, NM Biden). There's also a distinct non-zero chance that Biden takes AZ, MI, WI, and MN, and we end up with a 269-269 tie.
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  3. Tuttle

    Tuttle Listen kid, we're all in it together.

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    Absent a major new event (which is pretty likely, imo), Trump will beat Kamala, with a good chance of 40 state landslide. So, pretty much same as I thought three months ago.

    Also, I think there's a whole lotta 'preference falsification' running throughout the public.
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  4. garamet

    garamet "The whole world is watching."

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    @Tuttle believes Kamala is the candidate? There are no words...
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  5. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    After the way the last election went, I'm not sure what to believe anymore as far as polls go. This is how it looks right now according to 270towin.com

    [​IMG]

    I still think GA is a tossup and Florida should be much tougher for Trump now that ex felons have their voting rights back. And who knows what will happen with turnout due to Covid 19 and Riots.
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  6. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    If I had to make a bet right now it would be on a Trump EC victory with a bigger popular vote loss than 2016.

    God help you all though if it's anything close to a margin as big as you suggest though, because you'll probably get an entire generation giving up on the idea of democracy being a solution to their problems.

    edit: Given how 2020 is tracking I don't think too much can be read into current numbers. Five months is a long time.
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  7. TheBrew

    TheBrew The Hand of Smod

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    If Trump wins without the popular vote in those margins, that is it for the US.
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  8. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    half of those "ex felons" will be back behind bars before November anyway. :shrug:
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  9. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    And by "that is it for the US" I guess you mean your preferred candidate won't be HMIC and you will be disappointed. :weep:
    The country will survive - get yourself a teddy bear and a pacifier - you'll survive too, I promise! Now who's a big boy? You are! :yes:
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  10. TheBrew

    TheBrew The Hand of Smod

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    You are too fucking dumb to understand the point.

    If Trump wins the EC and loses the popular vote by 12 points, the crack will be fully split open. The federal government will be de-legitimized for a lot of states. Using the 2016 numbers, Trump will have lost the popular vote by 16+ million. That is unfathomable. If you think that losing the popular vote by that kind of margin and still winning the EC is "okay", then you fully support tyranny by the minority.
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  11. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF Staff Member Moderator

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    IIRC, it’s possible to win the EC with a mere 25 million votes. Were something like that to happen, we’d truly have a President who didn’t represent the population.
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  12. The Ghost of Crazy Horse

    The Ghost of Crazy Horse Soul Rebel

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    It'll be another four year temper tantrum.
  13. Quest

    Quest Liberty and Justice Staff Member Administrator

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    I've long been reluctant to support abolishing the Electoral College, but such a result would point to a probably unsustainable flaw in the system. :marathon:
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  14. Bickendan

    Bickendan Custom Title Administrator Faceless Mook Writer

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    I suspect non-mail voting states will have major problems.
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  15. Tererun

    Tererun Troll princess and Magical Girl

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    Can't wait for the debates. I don't know what is going to happen, but something is going to happen.

    I am hoping for old white man slap fight. I know it probably won't happen, but it is 2020 and there is a chance. I just hope I survive the flaming squid tsunami to see it.
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  16. We Are Borg

    We Are Borg Rey of sunshine

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  17. garamet

    garamet "The whole world is watching."

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  18. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    LOL! Is there a statue of limitations on that? Last post to that thread was three years ago.
  19. garamet

    garamet "The whole world is watching."

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    If you didn't have most of the posters who scare you on Ignore, you'd know that. And look a lot less stupid.
  20. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    No, you'd have a minority of the population ruling over the majority of the population. When it's a close difference that can be sustainable, if it becomes too big a gap then look at what historically happens to countries in that situation.
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  21. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    :lmao:

    You seriously think that's going to happen? Trump lost the popular vote by two percent last time. Relax, if we get a repeat of four years ago it won't be a 12 percent margin.
  22. TheBrew

    TheBrew The Hand of Smod

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    Never said I thought that, just commented on a possibility raised by others.
    But I guess following a conversation is too hard for you.
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  23. Lanzman

    Lanzman Vast, Cool and Unsympathetic Formerly Important

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    I will say again what I say every election season: the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.
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  24. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    The Morning Consult hasn't updated its Trump Tracker since February, which was used quite extensively last year for creating 270towin maps in the primary thread. Taking a look at their last results we have:

    [​IMG]

    Which is a fair big off what the maps looked like last year or the year before. A lot more red in the southeast, along with AZ.

    This is the map I'm afraid of and which current polls and previous performance don't rule out, right now.
    [​IMG]
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  25. Fisherman's Worf

    Fisherman's Worf Sir, I must protest! I am NOT a dairy man!

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    Mods please close this abomination of a thread that is merely copying my genius
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  26. Fisherman's Worf

    Fisherman's Worf Sir, I must protest! I am NOT a dairy man!

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    My name changed, plus gturner, Lesbian Shoes, Tasvir, Ramen, Dayton, Soma, and Flashlight all got banned. And Dinner drank himself into a stupor and forgot his password.
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  27. The Ghost of Crazy Horse

    The Ghost of Crazy Horse Soul Rebel

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    So you prefer echo chambers?
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2020
  28. Fisherman's Worf

    Fisherman's Worf Sir, I must protest! I am NOT a dairy man!

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    So you prefer echo chambers?
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  29. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Echo chambers?
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  30. The Ghost of Crazy Horse

    The Ghost of Crazy Horse Soul Rebel

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    So you prefer echo chambers?