What is the deal with the "12 year obsession" by Climate Changers?

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Dayton Kitchens, Mar 18, 2019.

  1. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 light & lethal

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    I was in elementary or maybe middle school when the ice age was brought up. That and the metric system! :lol: Actually I do use metric distance measuring (kilometers and shit) but that's about it.
  2. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    I was all over that. I read all the "damning" email threads, in the raw, not what the media was excerpting. And you know what I found? Bupkis. Statistically valid noise reduction, and that was for the worst of it. The fact that you don't understand the jargon does not make it wrong or malicious.
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  3. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Link?
  4. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    Post #2 of this thread.
  5. Diacanu

    Diacanu Comicmike. Writer

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    I get distrusting authority, I don't get thinking random anonymous Youtubers are smarter than scientists.
    If Youtubers are smarter than scientists....why didn't they invent Youtube?
    :shrug:
  6. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    That video doesn't at all address what I asked, and indeed seems to be mostly news articles or more cherry picked quotes. Indeed some of the very images you posted as cherry picked examples of the argument that science was saying an ice age was coming in the 70's, which was refuted by actually looking at scientific studies from the time, seem to be taken from that video.

    I'll re-quote our exchange here:

  7. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    So, citation still needed that there is a cycle in these scientific predictions.
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  8. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    The video shows exactly what you asked for, several articles that either call for for global warming or global cooling.
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  9. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    I don't know if this guy is "smarter than scientists," (hint, he's a scientist, shhhhh) but he makes a good argument that the alarmists manipulate data and hide data in order to support their arguments and their agenda. He also makes a good case that they are frauds and CO2 increases don't cause temperatures to go up.
  10. Diacanu

    Diacanu Comicmike. Writer

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    What makes it good?
    Did you run it past the logical fallacies chart?
    The Carl Sagan baloney detection kit?
    Or does he just have a sexy voice?
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  11. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    Why are you so scared to watch it, afraid you'll be wrong?
  12. Diacanu

    Diacanu Comicmike. Writer

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    Not in the least.
    I don't find it productive of my time to watch fallacy ridden crap.
    I ask again, did you smell test it past a fallacy chart?
    Cuz, I'd like to know how you judge what a "good argument", even is.
  13. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    How do ou know it's full of fallacy ridden crap if you haven't seen it?
  14. Diacanu

    Diacanu Comicmike. Writer

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    Your lack of understanding of how a good argument is constructed is a big red flag.
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  15. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    I don't lack an understanding of how a good argument is constructed.
  16. Diacanu

    Diacanu Comicmike. Writer

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    You don't seem to know what a logical fallacy is.

    If someone told you "this movie has great special effects!", and their idea of great special effects is "Plan 9 From Outer Space", would you take their recommendations?
  17. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Since you apparently missed this the first time (impressive since it was the post you replied to):

    https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s-intermediate.htm

    You followed that by saying:

    Any reasonable person would assume that reply means you think that the scientific literature has had cycles of alternating between strongly support warming and cooling. So when I asked...

    ...I was asking for evidence that this cycle you asserted the existence of actually existed in scientific literature.

    Simply posting a video which again mostly focuses on cherry picked media articles is nothing more than a 14 minute long version of your refuted claim that science can't be trusted because it predicted cooling in the 70's, we has been demonstrated to largely not be the case.
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  18. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    WRT to OP there is a delayed reaction of about a century or two between when we release the CO2 into the atmosphere and when it eventually reaches its new equilibrium. The stated goal is to keep it below 2 degrees C and that means we need to globally stop emitting entirely in 12 years or else we will not be able to stop it at 2 degrees C. Understand?
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  19. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    If we are talking about the medieval warm perild, no, that is not the case at all.
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  20. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    If I said The Beatles are the best rock band and gave you say, ten examples that I thought proved my point, would you call that cherry picking?
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  21. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    No, but if you asserted that the Beatles were the most popular rock band and then insisted on showing individual examples of fans then it certainly would be.
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  22. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    I don’t know how you show there was a global cooling scare in the 70s without showing news articles that talk about it?
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  23. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    I think I see the point of confusion here. When you asked...

    ...I and I assume K. took that to mean you were talking about climatologists as a group, implying that was the consensus.

    If instead you were asserting that there were some individual climatologists who predicted that then yes, providing examples of them demonstrates that. However I am confused as to how it would be at all relevant to pushing your argument that climate change is junk science given that those climatologists you describe were in a small majority.
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  24. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    Factually speaking there was not a single scientific artical published in the 1970's claiming there would be global cooling. There was a handful of pop culture articles on the subject written by nonscientists but, no, fqctuqlly speaking acie tists were neither talking about nor publishing anything about global cooling. That old lie got debunked 20 years ago, man.
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  25. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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  26. Federal Farmer

    Federal Farmer Corn of Coblin

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    There was a consensus though.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/19/the-1970s-global-cooling-consensus-was-not-a-myth/
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  27. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    Not quite. In the link I posted it cites a literature review that found a grand total of 7 scientific papers from 1965-1979 that predicted cooling, compared with 42 predicting warming.

    [​IMG]

    The study also looked into the reasons given in those papers, and found of those that predicted cooling or no changes it was usually due to taking sulfur dioxide emissions into account. This didn't up being as much of a factor as predicted because after the 70's the global community realized that pollution was bad (who knew!) and started putting measures in place to reduce SO2 emissions:

    [​IMG]

    Notice where the peak of those emissions occurs?

    They say a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing, Captain Conspiracy is one of the best examples of that we have.
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  28. Tererun

    Tererun Magical Girl

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    You are arguing with people who are trying to claim that because scientists in the 70's were wrong it means scientists today have the same knowledge as they did and are wrong. That shows such an ignorance of technology advancements and what science does that they have no understanding of what they are talking about.

    Of course they were wrong about what the effects would be. Do you know what computers and data collection were like back then? Your toaster in your home probably has a more powerful computer in it and better temperature sensors than they had back in the seventies. Your children's toys have far more computing power than most scientists were using back then.

    those scientists back then did hedge their claims with the knowledge they did not even come close to having the data and computer generated prediction tools we have today. They were making the preliminary guesses, and even those guesses showed the important reality that we were changing things. Even with all their primitive tools they knew we were advancing and dumping huge amounts of pollution into the earth, and that has not slowed down. It has actually increased.

    All the modern climate change denial shows is idiots are abundant and your average idiot should not be in charge of making regulations on ideas they clearly do not have the mental capacity to grasp. Now we should all get together and buy federal fetus some radium because clearly science has been wrong about the dangers of playing with radioactive materials in the past so he should be allowed to play with it and eat some lead based paint chips.
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  29. Dinner

    Dinner 2012 & 2014 Master Prognosticator

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    Yeah, the video I posted said a toral of seven but most dealt with a 20,000 year time frame. To compare their were over 50 talking about man caused climate change due to humans releasing green house gases.

    So very, very far from what the acience deniers claimed.
  30. K.

    K. Sober

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    I see several reports on 1 event. When three newspapers report on Trump's inauguration, do you think he was inaugurated three times?

    And again, as @Order2Chaos pointed out, this was a case in which the predictions came true. So if you want to count every report separately, that's so many more reasons to trust science.
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