http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071218/pl_nm/iraq1_dc_1 So really, what's gonna be the outcome of all this?
Short term, I agree with Tex. Mid-term, I think we're looking at a massive extention of the ongoing war in Iraq, and most likely the involvement of at least one more ME country, Syria or Iran or possibly SA. Long-term, I think we're looking at the dissolution of Iraq in its current sense, an independent Kurdistan covering parts of 4 current nations, a further division of the rest of Iraq, and a definitive end to old-style NATO, with Turkey adopting a firmly anti-US stance.
Oh no. Of course. Just when everything was supposedly better. Now the shit hits the fans and it starts all over again.
afaict, the US is so far taking turkeys side in this - they are after all a far more important ally to the US, so i don't know where this comes from. if the PKK decide to use northern iraq as a staging point to attack turkish positions, well, i guess turkeys military will get an open invitation to secure north iraq. seems to me the kurds can either boot out the PKK, or find their autonomy coming to a crashing halt.
What I've heard is that the US administration ain't happy, but is being pragmatic while exerting pressure in private. Frankly, I have to say I can't see the Turks getting too anti-US: while Germany and France continue to be terrified of the thought of Turkey in the EU, it makes sense for them to cultivate western allies...
I suppose it could go the other way, but if it does, i.e. if the US supports Turkey in Kurdistan, the US loses Iraq, and any credibility it has left in the ME.
No, you lose credibility because you abandon your promisses to the Kurds a second time, and this time without any necessity.
a rather binary view for a somewhat more complex situation given how autonomous northern iraq is, its unlikely to bother the majority of the iraqi government if its under turkish 'protection' as its more likely to bring it under central control. there would be the usual horse-trading, after which both iraq and turkey would be bosom buddies with each other as well as the US, and the kurds... well, they'd be fucked of course. if the kurds are smart, they'll play a long game and tell the PKK to fuck off so allowing them to turn northern iraq into a powerbase and start on the path to having their own nation.
Maybe the Turks just got tired of being strung along by the EU. It's clear they aren't getting to join the club so maybe they figure why bother being told what to do if there's no payoff.
Since when wer turkey planning on annexing the North anyway? There only going in to clean up some mess. Just like US/UK did in Afganistan. If they only do that, no way will USA go against Turkey, they need Turkeys air space and bases. Very strategic country for hitting the middle east.
i've highlighted why in the quote. the PKK is whats annoying them, they're not interested in annexing the whole of iraq as it offers no overall advantage to them, and comes with plenty of disadvantages.
