Writers Stike Predictions

You mean like a real job?

Okay.

:shudders:

Nah, I'll just become a lawyer.

Letterman blinks!

1-0 to the WGA, I'd say...

Well, they have to say that, you know, for public opinion.

Sure, there's no reason why they SHOULD care about anyone but themselves, however if they're perceived as selfish, then that gives them bad PR, and often a strike's success is pretty dependant on PR.

I don't care how many grippers and gaffers lose their jobs, really. They're a hell of a lot more replaceable than the writers.

What the hell do grippers and gaffers do anyway? (that's a serious ? BTW)

While I disagree that writers aren't more replaceable than the bleow the line help (mostly because there are same damned good writers kept out of the system by the system), I have no problem with the WGA striking and fucking everyone else. I do have a problem with the rhetoric about how we're doing this for everyone and while it's unfortunate that people have to suffer that this will help everyone later. It's bullshit.

Grips are the people that do lighting and rigging. Gaffers are the electricians (strictly speaking the gaffer is the head electrician).

Here's a reader response in the comment section of DeadlineHollywood Daily, the Nikki Finke blog. It's from a joint member of the WGA and the DGA. He's pretty spot on, IMO, of how it's probably going to happen. It's what I expect will happen if the writers don't pussy out.

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HERE’S THE PROGRESSION.
Here is the sad but simple truth of the action in which we find ourselves. This strike has always been a six month strike, no less. Even the studios have said so privately to many of their top producers, especially film producers. I’ve heard it directly from a number of high-level execs. The strike will end in March/April. No sooner, but also no later. Here’s why.

December obviously is gone. January they’re going to let the WGA stew to see if the guild breaks. There will be some kind of broad outreach in February, where the AMPTP will come back again “to put the town back to work” but put forth essentially their original offer to see if they can pressure the WGA into taking it. That has always been their game plan. The studios were having high level meetings for over a year determining what they would offer, and what they would force the guild to accept. This is all part of the process of wearing down the WGA.

It is, however, in March/April that the strike will really begin in terms of effectiveness. That is the ONLY window where the WGA will have a chance to up the deal, because of what’s around the corner.

Understand: The AMPTP does NOT want to see the strike extend into May-June because not only would that put all three Guilds into negotiating at the same time THIS year, but it would also put them into that position three years from now when the contracts expire, something no one else has seemed to mention, but which the studios are very much aware of and wish to avoid as part of their long-term planning. They’re going to want at least a couple of months between the next WGA contract expiration and SAG/DGA.

So: March/April. This timeframe allows the AMPTP time to solicit multiple script orders from their favorite and trusted show runners and go right into production without a pilot, allowing them to salvage the fall 08 season. They’ll be short orders at first, just to hedge their bets, but enough to save the fall.

Anyone who got into this strike foreseeing anything less than a six month strike was living in a dream world.

Until then, the only thing everyone can do is batten down the hatches and hold tight until April. A hard truth but it’s honest.

Comment by A Joint Member of WGA/DGA
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The comment is from this section-- What's Next? --of Deadline Hollywood Daily about the strike.

If there's no snow on the ground for Christmas, it's Hell.

Enjoy your damnation!

Anyway, I miss quality television. I'm going to be pissed when 30 Rock and Chuck runs out.

But I don't blame the writers. Solidarity, etc.

If the writers don't have this fight now, they'll be locked out of the internet market for good. The studios will know that all they'll have to do is wait them out if they strike again next time, and they'll never offer a fair deal.

Which isn't what my bitch is about, and wasn't in any post in this thread. My complaint is the bullshit rhetoric coming out of the WGA and thrown about by the pundits and the bloggers about how we're doing this for all of Hollywood when that's that a blatent lie. No matter how bad I'm getting fucked on downloadable material, that never affects the below the line folk and never did. They don't have any dog in that fight, yet the WGA is destroying their livelyhoods. However, the WGA and their apologists still blather on about doing this for everyone in Hollywood. It just isn't true.

And that nonsense about always being a six-month long strike is bullshit. We were told all along it was going to be a quick strike. Had we been told otherwise I guarantee the below the line folks would have been making other arrangements to pay their bills instead of being left twisting in the wind and the studios wouldn't have risked the 09 summer blockbuster season.

The one bright spot about this is that someone just hired Brannon Braga back and the strike prevents him from working again.

It depends on his capacity and if he's actually doing any work during the strike. If he's a producer it doesn't matter. If it's just a promise to hire him and not an actual contract that might be important too. There's a lot of wiggle room to be honest.

We were told it would be a short strike, but personally I never bought that. The whole force majeure thing guaranteed at least 2 months.

btw, I agree with you on the rhetoric to some extent. Someimes it's a bit OTT. But below the line do have a dog in the fight, they just don't seem to know it. Uninionized below the line do get residuals but it's not paid to them directly, it goes into pension plans and whatnot, afaik. So if residuals go, these people will find themselves in a pickle and wonder what the fuck happened.

Y'know, I can't STAND Letterman as a performer. But he did give my buddy Calvert DeForest a shot at stardom, and this news raises him another notch in my estimation.

Paging Jay Leno and the other late-night hosts...

I still want to know how that strike breaking Colbert and Stewart are actually going to to do their shows without writers. It's impossible with their formats. All the other writers would like to get their crews back to work, too, you scabs. Taking Stewart and Colbert seriously ever again when they rail against "the man" will be a little impossible for me. We all know how long their principles last--about 8 weeks. They're both WGA members. They shouldn't come back.

They're contractually bound and ineligible to remain on strike when they hold producer status.

It's the same reason Tina Fey has to do her job once a week and then go back on the picket line.

They're hyphenates. All the hyphenates (there are plenty of producer/writers) are contractually bound. Boo hoo. They're all taking a risk of getting sued--people just want to make excuses for Stewart and Colbert pussying out. The producer/writer of my favorite show isn't putting it back on the air. His ass is on the picket line. Tina Fey isn't putting new episodes of 30 Rock on the air once its scripts run out. Stewart and Colbert are going back on the air. They're scabs. There's no way to sugar coat it.

Prediction?

Pain!

Now, if they either read actual news, interview lots of people ad lib and basically refuse to be funny, that might do some good and get some attention.

But if they're just going to try and ape their old formats without writers - screw 'em.

Their old formats are entirely due to their brilliant writers. I don't see how it's going to work for these particular two shows. It's a hell of a lot harder to ad lib for a length of time than people think. Their interviews only go so far, and how long will people want to tune in if they aren't funny? I can't imagine how it's going to do any good. Their writers are going to resent them going back on the air without them.

An article that I was reading on my cell phone (I think it was from ABC News) has said that the amount of money that writers have lost now since being on strike exceeds any benefit financially they will receive even if contracts are approved with everything they are asking for. Do you agree with that?

ABC is Walt Disney. Of course they're putting out bogus statements like that. Its one of the big players at the table. That would be true if the writers had accepted that bullshit offer the studios came up with in November. $250 for an entire year of streaming. What a joke.

Since no one in any career knows with any certainty what their future earnings will be, I think as usual you didn't understand what you were reading.

Must be the tiny little screen on your cell phone that confused you.

Or it could be like the supermarket strike, where you misunderstood the very stats you were providing.

Or it could be that he read it, came here and asked for others opinions on it. You know....opinions of members here who actually work in the industry........

Still don't see how anyone in any profession - particularly one that relies on independent contractor status - can know what their future lifetime earnings will be.

Magic 8-Ball time.

There's also the possibility - incomprehensible on KIRKWorld - that the strikers might be concerned for the future of the WGA's influence as a whole as newer media outlets emerge.