...hell will have frozen over. The President is leading now in enough states for at least 275 and perhaps as many as 300+ electoral votes, and that takes him over the top. Last I checked, he who has the most votes wins...
Romney's now polling 3+ points ahead of the Prez (according to latest Reuters poll), but yeah...I don't see the electoral math adding up well for him.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html Looks a lot closer than what you're saying.
To be fair, just as many who oppose him are tied up the same way. If Obama wins, do you know how many people will be screaming about freedom and socialism, and even some who will want to take up arms? I think it's safe to say that every side has it's batshit contingent, and that we just hope the sane people win out and tell their crazy counterparts to shut the fuck up.
538 has always been the be all and end all of Presidential year election polling analysis. Nate Silver's math model can't be beat and that's why he went from a blogger to the NYT's expert on the subject to getting paid big money for his expertise. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Any way it was over 300 less than a week ago but due to the poor debate performance he's only ~+20 now in EV. Colorado, Virginia, and Florida have flipped to slightly Romney yet Romney is still losing. Further more the bounce probably won't last long so it is still up in the air if he can even keep hold of those three states on election day.
Wanting to take up arms and actually taking up arms are two different things. Just sayin' And anyway riot-wise Obama losing wouldn't be the only reason to riot, but it could be the "spark" that starts the ball rolling. Post-riot (or other public violent disturbance) you get the laundry list of reasons: police harrassment - high unemployment - shitty schools - two years ago a cop shot a sweet, misunderstood drug dealer, etc. And you get the default reasoning "these things have been building up for a long time. This was the straw that broke the camel's back. The neighborhood rioted because of frustration. This is really a blessing in disguise - now healing can begin." It doesn't matter because Obama will surely win because The Republicans can't (or won't) run someone more exciting. He might be fully qualified to lead, but obviously that doesn't matter. Sorry, but you have to win the people over, period.
Last I checked, the election isn't until November. Bullshit. Before 2008 no one had even heard of Nate Silver. So he projected an Obama victory in 2008? So did everybody else. He projected republicans taking back the house in 2010? So did everyone else. Enough with the hero worship already. According to your hero political guru Nate, Romney's gain is not a bounce that will go away.Those 80 percent chances of Obama winning have now went down to 60 percent and we still have three weeks to go. A few weeks ago, Obama was ahead in a lot of states and you guys were doing victory laps. Now you're reduced to arguing over whether or not Ohio holds and the President can squeak out a victory. This election isn't over by a long shot.
^Romney has a good chance. Polls are loaded with biases. People lie, particularly when it comes to voting for a black man (albeit less so than last time since arguably he sucks so badly). Polls can affect behavior. Turnout could be critical, and poor turn out less, and young might not think much of the Liar in Chief after four years of no change and no yobs.
No doubt turnout will be key. That's why I laugh at those poll models that predict a repeat 2008 turnout performance when republicans are more energized than democrats are this time around. umpkill:
No. The voting black people aren't likely to riot over anything anytime soon. You'll see tea party nutjobs rioting when Obama wins, however.
Well yeah, if you're a news guy, sure. "Oh, look over there! The crowd just trampled an old lady's head into a greasy trail of sneaker prints! Oh! Ohhh! I creamed! ".
Oh yeah, white people will be swarming the streets, setting shit on fire and breaking stuff. :sarcasm:
What about the non-voting black? Will they riot? 'Cos that'd be a lot of 'em since most people don't vote.
Given the amount of violence and threats that have occured already with Obama just being ahead in the polls, it's much more likely that some of your loosely hinged tea party patriots will call fr armed revolution and do some stupid shit if Obama wins.
Give examples of Tea Party people committing violence. I'll match two Occupy wall street examples for every one of yours. Go!
They posture a lot, but by the time they climbed out of their Medicaid-funded scooters, the parade will have passed them by. The skinhead fringe, however, has already tried several times, and they bear watching.
