2016 Major League Baseball thread

i love this time if year. Hockey and basketball are going strong, NASCAR is just staring and baseball season is right around the corner. Looking forward to this year and considering it's an even year I have high hopes for the Giants.

Anyway, who do you have winning it all. My predictions:

Might as well make my predictions, even though it still feels like a month too early to do so:

National League West

Giants
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Rockies
Padres

National League Central

Pirates
Cubs - WC
Cardinals - WC
Brewers
Reds

National League East

Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Braves (What happened to the Braves)
Phillies

American League West

Astros
Rangers - WC
Angels
Athletics
Mariners

American League Central

Royals
Indians
Tigers
Twins
White Sox


AL East

Blue Jays
Rays - WC
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles

World Series

Giants over the Blue Jays

I think I'm going to like you...

Seriously, I'm had years over the past decade or so when I thought "this team can contend" but there was no emotional feel o the team, it was just looking at the abilities. Times when they ended up disappointing me be a little or a lot, and times when I didn't expect much.

But this team FEELS different. I don't know if it's the unprecedented exuberance of Marcus Stroman or what but i go into this season not just thinking "the pieces are there to win" but more like "go ahead and print the fucking playoff tickets now!"
(with appropriate respect to the rest of the AL)

Yeah, and the AL East is a bad division. I don't think Boston will do much with a fat panda (The pictures I saw today were scary), and the Yanks and Orioles don't worry me. The only team I can see challenging Toronto might be the Rays, but Toronto has the fire power and the pitching. They will be a fun team to watch.

I was with you up until this point.

Fail.

The Rays are going to be the Braves of the AL. I can envision any of the other Eastern division teams contending, but not them. Anyway, fat Panda or not, this is going to be a season that returns to the Redsox-Yankees domination. Whichever team wins the season series against the other will win the division. Here are my picks:

NL West -- Arizona
NL Central -- Chicago
NL East -- New York
NL WC -- Pittsburgh, Los Angeles

AL West -- Houston
AL Central -- Kansas City
AL East -- Boston
AL WC -- New York, Cleveland

How October plays out is too hard to project, but those are my best bets for post season teams.

Yeah I'm actually thinking the Cubs, and the match will be, as Marcus might say, legendary.

Cubs seem to be the top pick. I just see the top three teams just beating the heck out of each other and it will be a fun race to watch. Still, gotta root for my team, who did get better and solidify the rotation with Cueto and Shark.

Here's an interesting article on Weighted on Base Average. It's a good thing this isn't the Red Room, because there's a shit load of math in this!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-monster-in-the-mirror/

Personally, I like True Average better. For one thing, it's quite a bit easier to calculate, much more Red Room friendly.

The Giants starting pitchers are getting knocked around a bit this spring. Hopefully they will turn it around when the season starts

I never put much stock in such things. Very often, the better pitchers (with less to prove) use the Spring to experiment and refine technique. That means taking some risks with pitch selection. The back end of the rotation guys on a good team are in a fight for their spots, so they will tend to play it a bit more conservatively. From the fan perspective, the stats we are used to relying on aren't of much use. If the Giants have a pitching problem at the end of April, then you should worry, but not right now.

All I know is that the Reds are gonna suck ass, so I am rooting for the Cubs and Blue Jays.

I don't understand the maths behind any of the advanced stats, I just take the conclusions on faith most of the time, while trying to be aware where the flaws are (like, for example, RA Dckey breaks xFIP)

I made it most of the way through that article without breaking a sweat, but once he started trying to bridge the difference with True Average, my eyes did start to glaze over. Knuckeballers break everything. Physics implies that they are an impossibility. To attempt to analyze a pitch from a Dickey, Wakefield, or Stephen Wright, is to change the pitch.

D-Backs will win 10 to 15 more games this year than last year, and may take the NL West.

okay, here we go...
(playoff teams bolded)

Toronto - 95-100 wins
Boston - 85-90 wins
TB - 85-90
NY - 80-85
Balt - 70-75

KC - 85-90
Clev - 85-90
Det - 80-85
Min - 80-85
CWS - 70-75
Houst - 90-95
Tex - 90-95 <---Edit! I changed this (3/4) because I had them too low for...reasons.
Sea - 80-85
LA - 80-85
Oak - 75-80

Clev over Boston
Houston over Clev
Toronto over KC then over Hoouston



NY - 90-95
Wash - 90-95
Miami - 70-75
Atl - 60-65
Phil - 60-65
Cubs - 95-100
Pitt - 90-95
StL - 85-90
Milw - 70-75
Cinn - 70-75

SF - 90-95
LA - 90-95
Arz - 80-85
SD - 70-75
Col - 70-75

Pitt over LA
Pitt over NY
Chicago over SF then over Pitt

Toronto over Chicago Cubs

The Rays either need a new stadium or they need to move. They couldn't fill up the park on opening day against a strong division rival.

My picks:

AL East - Toronto
AL Central - KC
AL West - LA
Wild Cards - Houston, Boston

NL East - Washington
NL Central - Chicago
NL West - SF
Wild Cards - Pittsburgh, NY Mets

World Series - SF over Toronto

It's really scandalous, especially since the Rays have now fielded several years of decent teams. They should move to Mexico City.

I wonder if the time is right for a Caribbean team. If one country/territory can't completely support the team then maybe it can play some home games in Puerto Rico, some in Cuba, some in the DR.

I've thought about that model, and think it would be pretty cool, but I think there would be a stadium issue. An MLB team needs a stadium that can seat at least 25,000 and preferably 30,000 fans. How many stadiums of that capacity can realistically be built in the Caribbean? Is there an economic case for such a stadium if it only has, say, 27 games per year?

Even if they can solve the venue question, can a team based anywhere in the Caribbean generate enough revenue to compete? This is why I suggest Mexico City. It's a much wealthier location than anywhere in the Caribbean, and could legitimately expect to own the entire Mexican TV market. That's probably a better revenue stream than some US based teams.

meanwhile, Montreal - in an old bad stadium, sold out 2 exhibitions a year for each of the last 3 years. Possible solution?

I like the idea of restoring a team to Montreal, but I keep thinking about why they lost the Expos in the first place. Selling 107,000 tickets to a two game series is great, but we all know that wouldn't translate to 4,000,000 over the course of 81 regular season home games. What were the Expos averaging in the final years?

I used to watch the Reds play the Expos in Montreal on TV and wondered what Labatt 50 always was (I was 9). Always loved their logo.

my Canadian friends throw water on the idea of ever getting a sensible plan to build a decent stadium there, between local politics and lack of an obvious corporate/ownership windfall

Maybe the solution for places like Montreal and the Caribean lies in the AAA circuit.

Interesting side note on this discussion. There was a time when Buffalo made a play for a major league team, and they even built a stadium. But they were smart about their chances, so the stadium was designed to hold about 21,000 people, with an expansion option to 35,000. The team they hoped to snag ended up going to Washington, leaving them with the largest minor league stadium in organized baseball.

they are a really excellent partner to the Jays too.

I like the Caribbean idea (and the idea of Montreal getting an IL team) - though maybe AA would be better. If the day ever comes when Cuba is a free player in the region, you might be able to mount a reasonable AA circuit down there between Cuba, PR, the DR, and so forth but...having to fly to so many games would probably kill that. I imagine the day will come in a few decades when there's a Cuban Winter League though.

Heck, we have affiliates in the Dominican Summer League so I could see a team having a Cuban team too - but it's a long ways off.

I know it's early but the Reds are 5-1 so far. Playing with a bunch of young kids, you never know what your going to get. Both the Twins and Braves are win less.