Running on a platform of crazy college campus SJW identity politics = don't even bother. If all the Dems try to appeal to are gays, trannies and latte-sipping hipster trash, Trump will destroy them. You're not gonna win the White House with beta cuck whining about safe spaces, microaggressions, cultural appropriation and toxic masculinity.
"Power" is an abstract. The real issue is what anyone - a political candidate, the middle manager who wants to be CEO, the lawyer who wants to make partner, or any other aspirant you can think of - wants to do with that power.
Yabbut think of all the dank memes we'll get from that .....but yeah, no. Looking at all the new, younger voices, Dems are not looking for the same tired rhetoric. They're looking for more open progressiveness. Most Dems in office (and certainly ones elected before 2000) are centralists at best. Dems need someone we can fight for and energize the base the way Obama did.
it will also bring out all the folks who hated him but didn't vote because they didn't like her but assumed he would lose and the folks who voted for him only because they hated her and figured "how bad can he be?" And the folks who voted against her but are now horrified at how bad he was I don't see anything at all showing a measurable number of folks who wouldn't vote for him then but are enthusiastic to vote for him now. He's going to need more than all the same folks he had then and he doesn't even have all of them.
Rule of thumb: when a conservative says "the only way you can beat us is to do X" the best thing you can do is notX - they are not advising in good faith
You have to actually show they voted this time for a hope of this being a valid argument. Again, need cross tabs to validate that. Do you have figures for how many of those there are? Comparing 2008-2010 and 2016-2018, the incumbent party lost proportionally similar numbers of votes while the out-of-power party lost fewer votes. Absent numbers of voters *swung*, the null hypothesis is that the incumbent party voters will return for the next presidential election.
Hold on, don't go to fast. I am thinking republicans should experiment with that sort of mentality. Just to make sure because science says it would not work.
A few years back everyone thought trump was just as crazy. The rock can't be any worse than Trump, and we know he can survive going out in the rain. Plus if we are going to crash as a country I want to see a steal cage match debate between the rock and trump. We are already at idiocracy, let us just enjoy trump becoming a wet blob of bad toupee and blood. Plus it will make rightforge cry.
how does this align with the widespread reports that this was a record setting year for mid-term turnout?
It was a record setting year for turnout but many races were razor close. Assuming the same people vote next time (and vote the same way) the 2020 election will be razor thin too barring anything catastrophic. It most likely will not be a one-sided victory.
No. That was the exact point. in various individual house districts the margin was tiny, overall the Dems are now past 8 million more votes nationally - a margin of around 7.3%, and said vote distributed in ways which make an EC victory for Democrats not even slightly in doubt ...assuming the proposition that the same voters turned out and voted for the same party they voted for this time. O2C is quibbling about my assumptions about that theoretical turnout (I actually thing it will be worse for Republicans than it was this year for a number of reasons) but objectively, if one simply applies this vote to 2020 Trump goes down in a decisive loss. there's all sorts of underlying indicators that the coming decade looks like shit for the GOP if they don't resolve their cancer. Whatever one might think of conservative foreign policy or economics or whatever, the negatives of their public perception is trending HARD against them and the only thing they have left right now is the geographical advantage of the rural power in the senate and tha will slide from their grasp over time. The next time the GOP is a party in ascendancy it's platform will look much more like, say, Bill Clinton than Donald Trump or even W and that will be specifically because of the ugliness they embraced (above, beyond, and before Trump) for the short term advantage of gaining ideological power in the court system. To be clear, even getting their ass kicked again next time isn't going to fix everything in the short run - but if the nations survives the next, say, 10-20 years (and by this i mean not just the ugly politics but stuff like how we adapt to the massive economic changes that are coming via forces beyond our ability to prevent) then we have the chance to be a lot more sane on the other side...but we might not. The resistance to progress is one of the most troubling flaws in our culture and our collective psychology.
for example, there are dozens of data points that look like this: "But people will get more conservative as they age..." Oh really?? This was what the age gap looked like during the 2006 “blue wave” and then the age breaks from last night. Those 18-29 year olds are now the 30-44 group. And what do you know...they didn’t turn into Republicans. 2006- 18-29: 60% D 30-44: 53% D 45-59: 53% D 60+: 50% D 2018- 18-29: 67% D 30-44: 58% D 45-64: 49% D 65+: 48% D The younger cohorts ain't buying what the GOP is selling and the ones who are lose numbers to the grave every day.
As if he ever had a chance to begin with. Meanwhile, Biden says he is the most qualified man in the country to be president.
yeah.....I see the Dems "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" in 2020. The election will be theirs to win but they will find a way to fuck it up. They just need to start getting their excuses prepared now rather than wait until the last minute and embarrass themselves.
Deval Patrick is out. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/04/deval-patrick-2020-elections-decision-1045361
Gabbard or Duckworth's veteran status is gonna be a selling point for either as Veep, especially for O'Rourke in Texas.
Hell, just look at many of the people here over the last decade and a half. Quite the opposite has happened.
Duckworth is ambitious and capable, though she hasn't been on the radar for 2020. Her military record should be a point in her favor, but Republicans have previously shown little scruple about attacking injured war veterans for their service.
Remember when Jeriko tried to argue that Harold Ford Jr. and not Barack Obama was the biggest threat to the GOP?
Democrat Julian Castro takes first step toward 2020 White House run I like Castro personally and he was a good mayor here, but O'Rourke probably stands a better chance.
