French Legislative Elections -- Overwhelming Victory for the Right

The French Parliament has 577 seats. The first round of voting was today, and it looks like President Sarkozy's party will have about 500 of them! The Socialists are completely falling apart.

The Far Right (not quite neo-nazi, but pretty close) is under 5% for the first time in 20 years. People don't believe in them any more, since what was popular with them was not so much their racism as their willingness to take a strong stand on law and order, and Sarkozy is following that same line (though without the racism or extreme right rhetoric).

Abstention hit a record high--only 60% of registered voters showed up. It looks like a lot of those who didn't bother to show up were on the left politically. They are totally disillusioned with a Socialist party that has no project, no leaders, no answers, and nothing to offer.

It looks like "Sarko" is going to get the chance to put his policies in place.

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Compared to the right on this board, Sarko and his party are communists...

Glad that LePen is fading. About time.

And compared to you, he is a neo-nazi.

On that, we agree fully.

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So smart. So ignorant

^ Yes, blatant, biased rhetoric from you is acceptable, but no one else is allowed to play the game.

Hint: If you can't take it, don't dish it out. Especially, don't start it!

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Let's go, disgruntled populace. These cars aren't going to torch themselves you know!

I know it's difficult for me to turn the other cheek as well, but... daaaamn! That wasn't called for, now was it?

More on topic: The French are doing the wrong thing. Not only are they alienating Muslims in their midst, but their government is hitching French policy to a sinking ship. Insofar as they take the hardass American view of international politics, Sarkozy risks being seen as Bush, Jr. -- soon to take over the lapdog title from the outgoing holder of same in Britain.

There is, unfortunately, a very real possibility of that happening. Ségolène Royal, the day before the presidential elections, said that if she wasn't elected there would be riots all over France. The extremists responded to her invitation/prediction even before Sarkozy became president. It was clearly a blatant refusal of the democratic results of the vote. And that is likely to happen again.

But this time, with the government having a clear and overwhelming mandate from the people, they can take measures against it. In fact, if they fail to do so, they will lose their mandate, because that's what they were elected to do.

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You didn't get what I was saying, did you. Once more, slowly: before you and other American right wingers start celebrating the return of France into the big conservative family it's important to know that a European conservative is a pinko commie in comparison to its American counterpart.

And while we're at it... why don't you explain to me why I'm such a commie? I'm thinking and thinking and I just can't find it. Could it be that it's simply the well trained cold war reflex - everybody who doesn't agree with the US government is an anti-American commie traitor?

Well, as long as the rioters aren't handling guns, because that would be uncivilized and violent.

I seriously doubt any American thinks that. We're talking about France after all...

right, because tax-cuts, encouraging longer working hours , immigration curbs and reducing trade union powers are so reprehensible to many of the right on the board

i'm interested in seeing how sarkozy's reforms will pan out, the french are hardly known for using the ballot box to register their disaffection when there are flammable items to wave around instead.

it always amuses me the left whinge about war, yet find violence to be suddenly acceptable when it comes to airing their grievances...

The French might vote for economic reform, but they'll never stand for it.
This could get interesting....

Ohgodohgodwhatamigonnado

Sorry, no fascist coup for you

Does it?

having seen how some trade unions strong arm their members, and especially the french prediliction to riot when things don't go their way - a hangover from the student riots in the 60's - yes.

i might find many on the right distastefully arrogant and cold, but if you want really nasty bastards, go to the left.

We'll see what colour stripe he really is if he takes on farm subsidies and the unions.

Be the godfather for Stormette.

But I thought I was the...

Oh.... GODfather!

It's kinda fascinating, if you stop thinking of these squabbles as over issues and more of some sort of sordid tribal warfare.

I wonder if I could just invent issues and watch the sides close ranks and snipe at each other.

Update: Further analysis of the data shows the results might not be quite as bad for the left as they looked at first. There won't be final results until next Sunday, of course, when the second round settles the vote in all circumscriptions where no one got a majority in the first round, but according to some, Sarkozy's party might have as few as around 400 seats out of the 577 in Parliament. That could be wishful thinking, though, since the French media are so biased towards the left they make CNN and Newsweek seem almost objective. That would still be a very great majority, though.

The big question, of course, is the one that several have raised here: The French people have made it very clear what their wishes are, but when the left begins to set up strikes, demonstrations, and other tactics designed to cripple the economy and hinder the government's policies, will the government cave in just to have peace, or stick to its guns? (Sorry for the use of that offensive word...)

It remains to be seen, as well, who will be the Prime Minister. The betting is on François Fillon to be renewed to the post, this time not as a "caretaker" for a few weeks, but with real power. However, when the president has a majority in parliament, he has much more liberty to replace a prime minister who is not to his liking. So even though the PM is head of government in France, President Sarkozy will be in charge to a great extent during the coming five years.

I must admit that although I am glad the Socialists are falling apart (IMO they will soon be as much history in France as the Communists; within ten or fifteen years the new opposition to the Right will be those that are at present called the Center), I am not convinced that Sarko will actually do much. I will consider a French government to be successful when:

- Unemployment is down to 5 or 6%.
- 100 cars burned every night is no longer considered a normal, acceptable level of violence.
- Public services (France has a lot more stuff in the public sector than the States) are no longer crippled by constant strikes, thus making the public sector totally unreliable. (The big irony is that the justification for having so much in the public sector is that the private sector would not be reliable, because they would want to make a profit on it all.)

I won't be holding my breath. Sarko has good ideas. But even with a huge parliamentary majority, I'm not at all sure about implementation.

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It's my understanding that farm subsidies are even more untouchable in France than in U.S. And considering that at least in the past the UMP has had its base in the rural areas, I don't expect to see much change in the situation.

French farmers need subsidies because they don't have a strong marketing cooperative which they can't afford because of all the tax money going subsidies which they ne... Nevermind, stopping there.

Huge surprise in the second round of the legislative elections here in France: A week ago, after the first round of voting, they were predicting that the Socialists would drop down from about 150 seats in the Parliament to about 50, and that the right would have about 500 seats.

Today was the second round, and the results are not at all what was expected: The Socialists actually increased their number of seats! They are up to about 200. The Right still has a very comfortable majority, but nothing like the near-monopoly that was being predicted a week ago. In fact, they have only about 340 seats out of the 577 total. (The rest of them are for the Center.)

We were astounded by the results a week ago, which showed way more seats for the Right than had been predicted. And we are just as astounded by the results today, which show way more seats for the Left than had been predicted.

I certainly wouldn't want to try to be a pollster in French politics. It seems it is almost impossible to predict what is going to happen.

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What does this mean for the new French's Presnizzle's proposed policies? Anything?

It's nice to know that voters in France will not hand over all of their power to the French version of "Bliar."

Not a lot. He still has a clear mandate and a very comfortable majority in Parliament. (Even if the Center consistently votes against the Right--which they won't--the Right still has a majority of about 100 seats.) He can still go ahead with his program. What it does mean is that although a clear majority of the country wants him to go ahead with his policies, there is a credible opposition, which is always a good thing.

Still, these legislative elections and last month's presidential elections were "the Left's turn." After the Right had been in power for so long, especially with a president like Chirac who was not exceptionally popular, the people could have been expected to vote in the Socialists. That they didn't, and didn't even come close, mean that the Socialists are only the opposition, not a credible threat.

But it is good for the president and for the people when politics is not too one-sided.

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"will the government cave in just to have peace, or stick to its guns? (Sorry for the use of that offensive word...)"

[evil American Neo-Con mode]

Here's hoping that they stick to their guns but let the bullets fly free!

[/evil American Neo-Con mode]