The Wordforge Election Predictor - July 2008

And now I post the entirely plausible Electoral College conundrum map for 2008...

There's actually 2 of them that are at least plausible. There are probably other combinations, but they would likely be highly improbable.

Neither is very likely. On the first, NH is shaping up this time to be nearly as blue as the rest of New England...all polls in June have had Obama up by double digits. On the second, it's hard to see a situation where Obama wins Virginia but neither Ohio nor Michigan.

Actually, the % ages right now have ND and MT more likely pickups for Obama than either MO or FL.

What is that box in Nebraska? Is that the "Uncle Albert zone of rage" where no votes are cast?

Nebraska awards one electrol vote for each of its three
congressional districts, and two votes for the state as a whole.

The map shows the three districts and the box represents
the statewide vote.

You can click on the districts and the box individually.

Here's a simulation runner based on the most current polls.


http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

That's a fundamentally broken simulator. It presumes results are independent between states, and they're not even close. If Obama wins a handful the states where he's currently at a 25% chance to win according to poll results, he's got almost no chance at all to lose any of those states where he's currently got a 75% chance to win. State polls do not move independently at all.

Ah isn't that cute. The Trekbbs moderator is being an asshole... oh wait, that's right... that is after all one of the prerequisites to work on that staff.

Keep up the good work.

North Dakota has been polled for the first time since before Jeremiah Wright hit the national news four months ago, and things are pretty much right where they were then, essentially a tie. The internals are more volatile (men-women, economy-security), but all more or less cancel out.

Bush won the state by more than 25 points both times...looks like North Dakota will be having none of that this time.



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ction_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election

Obama leads by 5 in Montana, North Dakota is tied, and now in South Dakota, Obama only trails by 4.

And Obama gets 21% of South Dakota Republicans

Looks like McCain might also need to adopt a 50 state strategy, whether he likes it or not...



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...tion_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2

I think the republicans need to forget about the presidency this time and just try and hold onto as many seats as possible. If nothing more than to just be able to try and block as many of black jesus programs that he tries to push through. Or his handlers try and push through anyway.