... they thought Clinton cared more about bathrooms than jobs I'll go with the long format on this one because the WaPo sold their soul to Satan. The Daily 202 The Daily 202: Rust Belt Dems broke for Trump because they thought Clinton cared more about bathrooms than jobs By James Hohmann November 22 at 9:18 AM A closed steel plant in Youngstown, Ohio. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images) THE BIG IDEA: YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio—Back in May, the longtime chairman of the Mahoning County Democratic Party sent a private memo to leaders in Hillary Clinton’s campaign warning that she was in grave danger of losing not just Ohio but also Pennsylvania and Michigan unless she quickly re-tooled her message on trade. His advice went unheeded. “I don’t have to make the case that blue collar voters are, to put it mildly, less than enthusiastic about HRC’s positions on trade and the economy,” David Betras wrote in his 1,300 word missive, citing her struggles in recent primaries. Donald Trump’s protectionist message was already resonating very strongly in this epicenter of the Rust Belt. Gov. John Kasich may have won Ohio’s Republican primary as a favorite son, but Trump whipped him in more than a dozen counties along the Ohio River. More than a quarter of the people who voted in the March Republican primary in Mahoning County were previously registered as Democrats. In fact, Betras had to kick 18 members off his own Democratic central committee for crossing over to back Trump. That's got to sting! “More than two decades after its enactment, NAFTA remains a red flag for area voters who rightly or wrongly blame trade for the devastating job losses that took place at Packard Electric, GM, GE, numerous steel companies, as well as the firms that supplied those major employers,” Betras, a practicing attorney, tried to explain to the Clinton high command. “Thousands of workers in Ohio … continue to qualify for Trade Readjustment Act assistance because their jobs are being shipped overseas.” The local chairman feels very strongly now that Clinton could have won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan if she had just kept her eye on economic issues and not gotten distracted by the culture wars. “Look, I’m as progressive as anybody, okay? But people in the heartland thought the Democratic Party cared more about where someone else went to the restroom than whether they had a good-paying job,” he complained. “‘Stronger together’ doesn’t get anyone a job.” Even though "Stronger together" was an empty slogan, in focus groups it polled better than "I have a vagina." Houses sit boarded up and empty in a once affluent neighborhood of Youngstown. (Dustin Franz for The Washington Post) Youngstown is the county seat of Mahoning County, which is home to about 232,000 people. The population was more 300,000 in the 1970s, but then the steel mills closed and the area has never really recovered. Obama won the county by 28 points in 2012, a larger margin than he had won it by in 2008. Clinton wound up carrying Mahoning by just three points. That is largely thanks to a sizable African American population. She lost neighboring counties that had not gone Republican since 1972. Even amidst his 1984 landslide, Ronald Reagan lost Mahoning by 18 points. Walter Mondale beat Reagan there by 18 points. Hillary only managed to beat Trump there by 3. That's how bad the DNC's working class problem is. Betras forwarded me a copy of his memo this weekend as we talked during The Ohio State University-Michigan State football game, which was playing on TV in the background. The Clinton campaign never responded, he said. “I tried,” Betras sighed, six months to the day after he sent it. “I should have yelled louder.” Reportedly Bill Clinton was telling Hillary the same thing - and she and her sycophants wouldn't listen. Bill was a washed-up has-been from the 90's whose politics were from a bygone era, not the progressive wave of modern liberalism. With a mix of sadness and anger, he expounded: “We weren’t offering them anything for their souls. When people are thirsty, they’ll drink dirty water. When people are hungry, they’ll eat bad food to get sustenance. … That is why the great blue wall became the great blue paper wall. … We were so off message that a guy who (poops) in gold-plated toilets is connecting with these people!” This mentality is what has motivated Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who represents Youngstown, to challenge Nancy Pelosi for minority leader. “No Democrat in my area feels like Nancy Pelosi represents them,” Betras said. “She’s like a distant cousin where you really don’t know her. Yeah, we’re related, but… The coastal elites don’t understand the struggle. It’s like we’re foreign to them, and as a result the people here feel like the Democratic Party is now foreign to them.” All that angry and vitriol that liberals spout at everyone who isn't a progressive? Yeah, that just handed the white union working class vote to a guy with gold plated toilets. -- Looking back at the May memo, and spending two days chatting with voters, it is crystal clear that the national narrative underplayed the full extent to which Trump’s anti-trade jeremiads were loosening the knots that had kept so many non-college-educated, working-class whites moored to the Democratic Party. “Given the fact that this is a contemporary issue, the HRC campaign should disabuse itself of any notion that it can convince voters that trade is good,” Betras wrote at the time. “Clearly, HRC lacks credibility on the issue—at least in the minds of blue collar voters. Bill Clinton gave us NAFTA and HRC changing her positions on the TPP will make it easy for Trump to paint her as a flip-flopper on this critically important issue.” Democratic members of Congress also lacked credibility to make the case that Clinton would fight for their jobs because they were seen as too political, the chairman explained. He wanted Hillary to talk more about protecting pensions in her stump speech, and he said real workers should record testimonials and vouch for her on stage during campaign events. “The messages can’t be about ‘job retraining.’ These folks have heard it a million times and, frankly, they think it’s complete and total bulls**t,” he continued. “Talk about policies that will incentivize companies to repatriate manufacturing jobs. Talk about infrastructure … The workers we’re talking about don’t want to run computers; they want to run back hoes, dig ditches (and) sling concrete block. … Somewhere along the line we forgot that not everyone wants to be white collar.” Perhaps more fundamental is that white, working class voters wouldn't believe anything the Democrats said because they are pathological liars. -- Three members of the Clinton campaign team pushed back yesterday when asked about Betras’s critique. They stressed that they always knew there was a problem and acted accordingly. Hillary came twice but never went to the Dayton media market, for instance. Youngstown was her first stop in Ohio after the Democratic convention, and she was joined by Tim Kaine. Bill later made four stops in the Youngstown media market during a solo bus tour. Labor Secretary Tom Perez visited for a fish fry. Hillary seems to have spent more time hanging out with the cast of Hamilton than trying to shore up her campaign in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That didn't end well for her. “Is there a messaging aspect that could have been done better? I’m sure there could be,” a senior campaign official said, speaking on background to reflect candidly on what went wrong. “But no one took Youngstown for granted. No one didn’t think it was important. … It’s more of the fact that we were unable to tap into economic anxiety (nationally) than that we were not paying attention.” Clinton actually performed slightly better than Obama in both Columbus and Cincinnati, but she underperformed around Cleveland and got blown out in rural areas. “We thought we were going to be able to peel off more suburban Republicans who were going to be so influenced by Trump’s divisiveness. And then we thought the working class would come home,” an adviser explained, “when they heard that Clinton supported the auto bailout and Trump opposed it, when we hammered him for using Chinese steel in his construction projects and when we highlighted how workers in the building trades had been stiffed after working on Trump’s projects. … We weren’t able to accomplish either one.” They tried to fling shit at the wall but it wouldn't stick. Part of the problem is that nobody with any power in the DNC associates with the working class, so they really have no idea what people feel. -- Glenn Holmes is the Democratic mayor of nearby McDonald Village. He just got elected to an open state House seat with 60 percent of the vote, even as Trump carried the district. Holmes, who is African American, said it was more than just trade. Many Democrats in his district voted for Trump because they believed that Clinton wanted to confiscate their guns, supported late-term abortion and would not stop un-vetted Syrian refugees from pouring into the country. “I was able to speak more specifically to the fears and calm the fears” than Clinton could in the context of a national race, the 58-year-old explained in an interview. “Did Trump deal in misogyny and fear mongering? Sure he did. There was fear. He saw it and captured it. He won. It worked. Democrats didn’t address the fears. They dismissed them and thought people would see right through it. But that just sent the message that they didn’t care.” That's because Democrats don't care. They mock the backwards rednecks who don't live in the affluent blue bubbles. -- I asked Ryan, the congressman challenging Pelosi, whether Trump won the election or Clinton lost it. “It may have been equal parts both,” he replied during an interview at a Starbucks near his house. “Trump really understood who he was marketing to, and he connected with them. His shtick worked. He traded on his brand. He had this reservoir of commonality. They used to fly flights out of the Youngstown airport to Atlantic City, and people would go to gamble at his casinos. We have a lot of boxers come out of Ohio. They go to Atlantic City.” “While they look at us as trying to appeal to the donor class and the elites and the coasts and all that stuff, (Trump) said, ‘I don’t need anybody’s money,’” Ryan added. “If you want to resonate with people here who want to change the system, that one line did it.” Ryan complained that Democrats lack the kind of core economic message that they had for a long time. “You look around here, and I can’t tell you how many people have lost their pensions,” he said. “It’s not a sexy issue. It’s a bread and butter issue, especially in the Great Lakes states. And no one was talking about it.” - Trump moved last night to show that he’s serious about following through on his promises regarding trade. He released a video statement on YouTube in which he outlined a series of executive actions he intends to implement immediately after taking office. First on the list is issuing formal notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A story in today’s Wall Street Journal also looks at his early plans to push for big changes to NAFTA: “Among the likeliest would be special tariffs or other barriers to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and new taxes that would hit U.S. firms that moved production there,” William Mauldin and David Luhnow report. “His team says it may also seek to remove a Nafta provision that allows Mexican and Canadian companies to challenge U.S. regulations outside the court system.” -- Is the Mahoning Valley ever coming back to the Democratic Party? Will Ohio be a swing state in 2020? These are questions many Democrats in D.C. are pondering. Both before and since the election, scores of liberals have complained about how much attention the 202 has given to the Rust Belt; they argue privately that these blue-collar, non-college-educated, white-working-class Democrats are dinosaurs. The future of the party, they think, lies in the Sunbelt, and they think Trump’s win has only accelerated this realignment. Colorado and Nevada were relatively easy holds for Clinton. Trump won Ohio by 8.6 points and Iowa by 9.6 points. But he won Arizona by 4.1 points, Georgia by 5.7 points and Texas by 9.2 points. -- Ohioans of both parties say that’s hooey, and that the state will remain a battleground in the future. The key reason is that Trump is an outlier, and voters did not perceive him as a conventional Republican. Consider this remarkable nugget from the exit polls: Kasich, who refused to support Trump and traveled to the White House before the election to evangelize for TPP, was viewed favorably by 50 percent of voters on Election Day and unfavorably by 40 percent. Clinton actually won among those who viewed the Republican governor positively, 51 percent to 43 percent. But Trump won the voters who viewed Kasich negatively, 58 percent to 37 percent. -- Democrats expect that Trump won’t be able to deliver on his big league promises, and they bet that voters will punish Republicans for that in the 2018 midterms and then Trump himself in 2020. “These voters aren’t lost,” said one of the Clinton advisers. “We just have to demonstrate why we’re economically relevant to these voters. Trump is going to help make that case for us.” Cathy Hogue, 64, helps maintain the presses at a brick factory outside Youngstown. She’s been a member of the United Steelworkers for 39 years. Many of her coworkers have only ever voted Democratic, but she said they backed Trump this time because of his position on trade. “I don’t know,” she said when asked if they’ll ever vote Democratic again. “If it’s better, then it’s better. If it’s not, then they’ll come back.” -- Larry Gestwicki, 72, served in the Navy during Vietnam and then spent 30 years working on the assembly line at the Lordstown GM factory outside of town. He guesses that three-quarters of the current employees at the plant, where they make the Chevy Cruze, voted for Trump. “If it weren’t for the bailout, they’d all be out of jobs! It’s mind boggling,” he said. “Maybe Hillary just didn’t talk about it enough.” He volunteered for the Clinton campaign almost every day for six months. He knocked on thousands of doors. “A lot of people told me, ‘I just want a change.’ I’d say, ‘He’s not going to bring your job back.’ But a lot of Democrats, lifelong Democrats, would reply, ‘I just want change so much,’” Getswicki recalled. Many other registered Democrats who he talked with at their doors told him they were undecided. He now believes they were lying to his face and planned to support Trump all along but just didn’t have the nerve to say so. Sitting by the aquarium at the mall in Niles, the proud UAW member fretted that Trump is now about to appoint Republicans who will pursue policies that endanger his pension. “I’m afraid as hell,” he said. “I can’t even sleep.” What should really worry Democrats is that they have no conceivable strategy for getting their former voters back. They're hoping Trump fumbles or does something outrageous to re-alienate these people. And if that doesn't happen then they'll probably also have to write off Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine, and probably Virginia. Do that and Democrats don't have a viable route to the White House for a long, long time.
I thought you'd melt down as a result of a Hillary win, but it seems that a Trump win has had the same effect.
I didn't melt down, the DNC did. Their blue wall fractured and they have no way to repair it. This is because they're incapable of understanding anyone but their elite selves.
Indeed. Yahoo: Democrats search for answers to stem spreading Republican tide MONTPELIER, Vt. (Reuters) - Still sifting through the wreckage of the Nov. 8 election, Democratic leaders nationwide are struggling to find a new message to claw back support and avoid years in the political wilderness. Not only do Republicans control the White House and both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives, they now hold 33 governor’s offices. New England, long considered reliably Democratic, is a prime example of the party's demise. Republican Phil Scott won in Vermont over Democrat Sue Minter who was criticized, like presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, for failing to develop an economic message that resonated with voters worried about good-paying jobs. Considered a liberal bastion, Vermont has a tradition of sometimes choosing a Republican governor to keep one party from having too much control. Elsewhere, Republican Chris Sununu will replace a Democratic governor in New Hampshire while Maine and Massachusetts already have Republican governors. “We lost the governorship of freaking Vermont,” lamented Washington-based Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. “We didn’t just lose an election. This was a national rebuke. This was biblical.” Indeed it was, but most Democrats haven't realized it yet because they're out chanting that Hillary won the popular vote. They'll have plenty of time to freak out later, though. Republicans also command 32 state legislatures and have full control -- meaning they hold the governor’s office and both legislative chambers -- in 24 states, including swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. When President Barack Obama was elected in 2008, they controlled just nine. Democrats are also in deep denial about what a disaster Obama was for them. “There are more Republicans at the state legislative level than there have ever been,” said Tim Storey, an analyst with the National Conference of State Legislatures. Republicans scored a major coup when they seized the Senate in traditionally liberal Minnesota, giving it full control of the legislature, and they gained full control of next-door Iowa. “The party’s message, structure and apparatus are broken,” said Kofinis, who was chief of staff to moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. “We haven’t acknowledged it for years because we had the White House.” Obama’s two terms masked a crumbling party infrastructure. During Obama's tenure, Democrats lost over 800 state legislative seats, at least 13 governorships and both houses of Congress. Party insiders are reluctant to blame the popular Obama but cite plenty of reasons for the decline. These include a muddled economic message; an overemphasis on emerging demographic groups such as minorities and millennial at the expense of white voters; a perception the party is elitist and aligned with Wall Street; a reluctance to embrace the progressive populism of Senator Bernie Sanders, the former presidential hopeful; and failure to field strong candidates in key states. There is an emerging consensus, they add, that the party has been too focused on winning national races and has not invested enough in local campaigns, along with a grudging admission that Republicans have done a better job of competing on the ground. As a result, a poor performance by the Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections gave Republicans control of statehouses across the country, allowing them to redraw legislative maps to fashion districts that would help ensure their long-term electoral success. And one thing they weren't watching was that all the Democrat contributions were going to Hillary at the expense of every down-ballot candidate, whereas the Republicans were spending on down-ballot candidates instead of donating to Trump - who crushed Hillary while only spending about a fifth what she did.
It's far more damaging than just running a terrible candidate. Republicans did that in 2008 and 2012 and it didn't flip Republicans into Democrats. The Democrats have a far, far more serious problem in that Hillary alienated a crucial part of their base (white working class union voters) and caused it to flip to the Republicans. Those kind of flips can be multi-generational, and the Democrat hold on the upper Midwest largely goes back to FDR. Democrats have certainly flipped the Appalachian union vote, probably for generations, which encompasses far more than actual union members. For instance, my home county had been Democrat since the 1930's. Because of the UMWA, it stayed Democrat until this year, when Hillary only got 20%. 20%. Democrats are dead in Appalachia, and that flipped our state House for probably the first time since Reconstruction. Maybe in 40 years Democrats will win it back, but only if they really apply themselves. The rust belt might have to be written off just like the South was in the 1990's or 2000's.
In my opinion, Democrats (and liberals) in the last decade or so have gone overboard of buying into the "we will out breed you " idea of the importance of demographics over actual message or vision. Because it fits in highly with their preference for identity politics. And articulating a coherent message or a vision for the country risks making some people angry. But its deeply flawed as it simply ASSUMES certain groups will vote Democratic no matter what.
It's also extremely racist. Blacks will keep voting for Democrats because... well, they're blacks. Ditto for Hispanics. And of course telling a group that "we will out breed you" strikes up visceral opposition, in part explaining why Democrats lost their all important base of white union working class voters. Nobody likes being conquered by outsiders. And of course the Democrats have to import all the breeders because they don't let their own babies survive.
You should. Occasionally a journalist commits an act of journalism and writes down the who, what, and why without editorializing. This is one of those times.
