This question applies in 2 scenarios. 1) The election is a nail biter that comes down to one state that "decides" it. Which is it? 2) On election night, if this state is called in favor of one candidate or the other, then it's game over for the other candidate. You can choose to answer either question, or both, but your answer may differ on both scenarios.
Looks like it's going to come down to either Florida or Ohio again. WV and CO are important if they swing to Obama, but individually they're not big enough to have the impact of OH or FL.
I had to go with other, simply because no one State is going to decide the election - afterwards its easy to say "If only XXX had swung the other way" but that could be as little as VA or as big as CA. If either CA goes to McCain or TX goes to Obama its over for the respective camps, and there'll probably be some murders in the electoral college and all sorts of voter fraud allegations. I like looking back at the maps from earlier elections, it really gives you an interesting perspective. You have to go back to before I was born - 1968 - to see any third party electors. Virginia (my state) has never been anything other than Republican for as long as I've been alive, and now might very easily fall Democratic. I also simply cannot fathom a time when Texas was Democrat, heh.
I don't know about that. It's quite clear from 2000 (Florida) and 2004 (Ohio) that big bets were placed in one state for both elections.
This answers both questions: If McCain takes Pennsylvania, it offsets losses in Virginia,Missouri or Colarado.
I don't buy the concept of question 1. In 2000 everybody talks about Florida, but what about New Hampshire, Tennessee, etc.? Any state flipping to Gore would have changed the outcome. My answer for the second question is Virginia. It will be called early among the in play states, and he only needs one of those under most scenarios.
