WWIII placeholder thread.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/...en-Russian-Ships-Ukraine-s-Navy-Stays-Defiant

I thought, maybe, a couple of old patrol ships or something, I didn't think the Russkies would expend a Cruiser to block the harbour.

This speaks volumes for the quality of Russian naval operations.

...

Well, despite FOX' sensationalist headline, Obama and Putin are moving closer and closer to a position where neither can back off without losing face. Putin says he will 'protect all Russians' (his definition is 'everybody who speaks Russian natively' which basically means he can invade every single former soviet state), Obama promises military action in case Putin 'becomes aggressive'. Putin's reasoning is, and I hate to Godwin this, exactly the same hitler used to invade the Sudetenland. Obama is naive to think that Putin is impressed in any way, shape or form.

I'm afraid Putin is a better chess player than our own leaders. There is abso-fucking-lutely no reason whatsoever for the west to start WW3 over Ukraine. Unless Putin makes a stupid grasp for the Baltics he has already won this and the E/USA will look like a bunch of fools. This whole thing is so deeply Russian it's almost incredible. You don't play Chicken with Russians. You bloody don't.

^^pretty much

Jesus Christ, World, I'm 3 years from retiring, don't fuck it up for me by blowing up now..

On the chess analogy -- Putin is a very good tactician. He sees the board, understands the next several moves and makes strong choices. But he does not see beyond that. There is no benefit to Russia to push further on this issue, and arguably, even Crimea is a long-term problem for Russia. It is an even bigger economic disaster than Russia proper, so the move gained nothing but domestic prestige. It also gained long standing animosity from the West, and significant divestment by investors who don't like instability. 20 years from now, honest Russians will see that it was a huge mistake. But right now, it certainly helps Putin to maintain his grip.

I'm not so sure the international animosity isn't outweighed by new respect.

FTFY.

I'm going with "all of the above".

I think the chess move that's actually being played here is: Who can scare more shit out of the other side's general population? All out war is bad for business in both countries, and nobody wants that. If Putin can ramp the pressure up on Obama, the GOP will attack Obama for being a pussy, while Dems screech that Obama's going to get us all killed. If, OTOH, the West can put pressure on Putin and find just the right tools to economically hurt Russia, the oligarchs will toss Putin out.

This of this as a slow motion version of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and just remember that whomever blinks first is going to be removed by their own people. It will NOT be a large scale shooting match. Whichever side decides to go all in and start shooting will quickly find themselves toppled by a coup. You can bet money on it.

Domestic prestige was the point. Dictatorships with shitty economies work that way. If you don't rally the people against an enemy your choices basically come down to mass oppression and slaughter of your own civilians or watching your government fall. Russian actions in the Ukraine are of a piece with Russia's violent suppression of homosexuality, aimed at distracting the Russian people from the shittiness of Russia by getting them to cheer the destruction of an "enemy."

Of course, and precisely why I suggested that there is no long-term benefit.

it's
pretty simple: europe pulls itself together, gets of putin's gas teat and the lights go out in russia. he's betting on the past, that the eternal EU squabbling will prevent just that. he might be wrong. a game of chess isn't won by doing what hasn't worked before.

We must protect The Macallan!

I'm ashamed to admit that I haven't kept up with this situation like I probably should have. I'm foggy on everything that has happened post referendum. Could someone please give me the 50 words or less version of what has happened?

Essentially, some of the same things that happened in Crimea pre-referendum have now also happened in Eastern Ukraine: seizures of government facilities by pro-Russian factions; possible involvement of Russian special forces. Additionally: Ukraine military has moved against some of these; some NAZI style anti-Jew pamphlets have been distributed (unclear by whom).

Joy. Thanks. So...

I was right?

Perhaps. I suspect Putin himself is much less interested in eastern Ukraine. What is happening now does not seem quite as well organized, but whatever intelligence regarding actual Russian involvement isn't available, so we are just guessing about who is really behind current events.

Everybody's stirring the pot.

The longer analysis is:

• Russia can't afford a Red Storm Rising scenario in Europe. The financial spice from here and probably also China would stop flowing immediately, basically demoting Russia to the status of a 2.5 world country with nukes. Also, China might cease the day and try something in Siberia while the Russians are occupied on the other side of that huge slab of land.
• The US is IMHO unwilling to fight over a country it has zero interest in.
• The EU will squabble over a harshly worded letter for five months.

Don't get me wrong, those are good points from a general European and especially my personal perspective. But all involved parties rattle their sabers really hard. It's a situation where the wrong guy might sit in the wrong foxhole and shit starts spinning out of control. Or Putin might try the same in the Baltics, which would trigger a NATO response. I don't think we have to worry about that, though. He's ballsy but not stupid or suicidal.

Hey don't complain.....

If they don't use nukes this will do wonders for your job.

I see lots of overtime in your future.

So here's the deal. Russia is between a rock and a hard place right now.

On the one hand they can't let Ukraine as a whole go all Western. They've put too much out there, plus their defense industry has some key subsidiaries (holdover from Soviet Union days) located there.

On the otherhand, they can't just absorb Eastern Ukraine like they did the Crimea. B/c while they get control of the aformentioned subsidiaries, they just absorbed pretty much the only pro-Russian voting block. Meaning that what is left of Ukraine is going to be super pro west, and super anti-russian. How long after that happens do you think until the NATO treaties are signed, there's a SOFA and the US has bases and are conducting Joint Readiness Drills right on the Russian border? We just sent paratroopers to Poland, and the UK and US have jets doing 'training exercises' in the Baltics. Does Putin really want a Division or two of Abrams 'training' on his border?

Oh, and now who controls the Ruskies gas lines to Europe (aka - Russian economy)?

So if the Russians look schizophrenic when it comes to Eastern Ukraine it's because they are trying to walk the tight rope. Cause enough internal conflict that they are needed as mediators and some sort superfederated government (thus giving Russia de facto control over Eastern Ukraine) but not enough that there is an actual civil war with an actual split.

Right. Now that they have forced through the elections we opposed, annexed Crimea against our warnings, sent troops right across the line in the sand we drew and into Eastern Ukraine, and have resisted any attempt at reconciliation, we have them right where we want them!!

I really wish I could share your optimism. It's certainly true that Russia is between a rock and a hard place. But to them, that's just Tuesdays. From their pov, the US and NATO are already arming right along their borders, and have been for at least 15 years. (Missile shield anyone?) I don't think they ever had any hope of preventing that. What they have gained, however, is above all a buffer against that military build-up, plus strategically important land, plus what they do in truth consider to be the liberation of their countrymen, and more data on how willing or unwilling we are to go into armed conflict against them.

And Putin is a hero at home.

As long as NATO countries depend on that gas, and Russia controls its points of origin, I don't see how that helps us.

Do they? To me they seem extremely straightforward and purposeful.

This is why America was stupid to get rid of the shuttle without having a way into space without relying on the Russians.....

Russia says US astronauts could be hurt by Ukraine sanctions

http://news.yahoo.com/us-reviving-iron-curtain-policies-russia-094611975.html

That was stupid in so many ways, this one doesn't even register.