Iranian Official Threatens Military Drill Sealing Off the Strait of Hormuz

It's good to see the Iranians are not agitating or saber rattling.

If you were surrounded by enemies who made fresh threats to attack you every other week, I suspect that you might run some drills as well.

It's how the game is played.

On the other hand, if they actually go through with it, then they're laying at least some of their cards on the table in that regard.

You mean like Israel?

:santa_grin:

I agree. What you say is 100% true.

It's also kind of off topic, since we're talking about Iran, and not Israel.

Such an attempt sounds profoundly unwise.

From the time the execute order was given and the lead elements were within strike range, I reckon the Navy could have the strait back open in hours, if not a day or two.

I mean, it's not like this scenario has never been gamed at the Naval War College, right?

Maybe now, but Obama is probably going to get 4 more years.

Honestly, I doubt it. It's narrow enough that guys in speed boats with a few shoulder fired anti-ship missiles could keep it effectively closed to tanker traffic indefinitely.

No.

If so, it would be done already.

What a coincidence!

We're running anti-shipping missile exercises there the same week!

Maybe we can get together...

I do recall an Iranian frigate sunk by US Harpoon missiles back in 88' IIRC. Looks like they need another class in what happens when you fuck with Big Daddy.

Yeah, what war has Iran been in since 1988 which would require this? None. The hard truth is missile tech has gotten much, much better since the 1980's as well as much smaller and cheaper. Even Iran can afford light weight shoulder fired missiles now and even the best anti-missile system can easily get overwhelmed just by shear numbers. You get 100 speed boats for $20,000 each, give each 2 shoulder fired "fire and forget" anti-ship missiles at ~$30,000 each. so total cost is $80,000 per boat (not counting two man crew costs for one to drive and one to fire) X 100 boats = $8,000,000

That's a super cheap way to control a narrow bottle neck like a straight which is only a few miles wide. It's a classic Zerg attack and now anti-missile system in the world can block all 200 missiles all fired more or less at once. Hell, if even only one or two hit I bet they destroy ships costing much more than $8 million.

And the day they pulled that kind of shit would mark the end of Iran's existence as a sovereign nation.

Damn right. Obama will write them a stern letter and it's all over but the shouting.

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit.

I did not say "Iran would have done it", I said, "it would be done".

If it's as easy as you say, then Al-Qaeda or some other group would already be doing it.

Shoulder fired anti-ship missiles?

Yeah. Just let him roll with it. I mean, I'm sure you know a lot of guys that can shoulder launch missiles with 500 pound warheads.

Anti-ship missiles don't do the Iranians any good if the parts of their country they could be fired from are occupied.

Except its Iran threatening to attack its neighbors like Israel every week.

and the "sanctions",which have about as much affect as Jimmy Carter's arm bands.

Um, shoulder fired anti-ship missiles?

OK, looked it up on wiki and it seems the smallest ones are still 300 KG so, yeah, you'll have to attach some sort of launcher to the speed boat but the main point remains the same. It can be done pretty cheaply and in numbers.

What would you prefer? Full scale invasion? Carpet bombing?

Then you'd just bitch how we can't afford it.

You might be able to CARRY a 300 kg warhead anti-ship missile around in a speedboat, but you certainly can't launch one,

I'd prefer a fiscally responsible Federal gubmint and a strong military who is capable of dealing with any threats.

Right now, we definitely don't have the former and the latter is very questionable.

You honestly think $700 billion plus per year isn't enough and we need to spend MORE?! WTF? It was at $289 billion just 10 years ago and inflation has been almost flat the entire time. If ever there is a department which has become bloated with waste and useless pork this is it. We could literally cut military spending in half and still be WAY over the inflation rate for spending in 2001. Right now the military budget is just being used as a slush fund for pork and money to provide kick backs to lobbying groups.

They could probably launch it.

Once.

This is intended to put pressure on the White House and the other western leaders to ensure that Israel doesn't go through with an attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

US ASW resources are likely already deployed in the Strait, but more will be heading there soon - Iran has 3 Kilo diesel subs that can theoretically deploy mines while submerged. Probably only 2 are functional at any one time.

And of course the war game will be watched with great interest - as it might give indications of specific operational functions.

That being said, mine warfare is a long, tedious affair to clear (clearing 1000 mines off of Iraq in 1991 took US assets nearly 5 weeks) and for all intents and purposes Iran could close down the Straits for a month of more. It's too easy to deploy mines - you can literally do it from fishing trawlers and speed boats.

The Iranians would then be able to fire missile at the mine clearing vessels, requiring a significant air operation to reduce said capacity by the US by targeting launch sites on their coast and inland.

This would quickly spread into a larger war, though it might not spread to land based warfare. With the US assets out of Iraq, Iran has to feel better about its chances. Not to win such a war, but to instead put so much economic pressure on the West they achieve their objectives, which is to preemptively isolate Israel.

Especially in the context that it appears very unlikely Israel will be able to do anything more than delay the Iranian nuclear program in the first place by months or a year or two.