The Fourth Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread!

The reason to vote for Trump is that if you don't, you get Hillary. That will mean a constant stream of Congressional investigations until she's removed from office for either Parkinson's (which causes personality changes, anger, and paranoia on top of all the other symptoms) or the high crimes and misdemeanors she's already committed. Hillary will bring about global war because people instinctively hate her, yet regard her as weak.

This is the one true part of this post. Just like they did during the Obama administration, Republicans in Congress will almost certainly launch investigation after investigation at any bullshit excuse they can invent, all at taxpayer expense, in a vain attempt to do in the hearing room what they couldn't do at the polls.

Actually, the difference is that Hillary has committed an almost countless string of felonies and can be sent to prison for the rest of her natural life.

So basically gturner is arguing in favor of returning the House and Senate to Democratic control. Of course he's not smart enough to realize that's what he's arguing for, but still, it's a better argument than he's ever before made.

I think she has learned the lesson from Obama: Don't bother putting your hand out across the aisle, it's a waste of time. Instead, go straight to the veto, the executive order, and a bulldozer.

The day after inauguration day, the black helicopters are coming to get you. Buy extra food and warm clothes if you have to go on the run.

It will be interesting.

On the one hand Hillary is quite moderate and was known for her 'get stuff done' ability while in the Senate, mostly by working with Republicans.

On the other the Republicans have spent the last 8 years telling everyone that they won't be partners even if they had the ability (caucus is too disfunctional to do anything other than lurch from crisis to crisis).

Dems also know they only have 2 years.

And yet, she was elected twice to the senate, serving 8 years, then 5 as SoS and no one has yet made a ingle legal charge stick in 25 years of trying. Why on earth would you assume that will change now?

One election, many outcomes:

How many electoral votes will each presidential candidate receive? hillary 338 trump 194 mcmullin 6

How many seats will each party control in the Senate? R 51 d 49

How many seats will each party control in the House? R 223 d 212

Tiebreaker: What percentage of the popular vote will Evan McMullin win in Utah? 30%

Most of them involve Trump getting assfucked with a bat'leth, though.

When you cross-breed a Klingon, Ferengi, Oompa-Loompa, and Bowerick Wowbagger, "assfucked with a bat'leth" is the most likely outcome in pretty much any situation.

Is that really big an achievement for a celebrity Democrat in New York?

consider the context - I was addressing a person who's convinced she is GOING to be convicted at some point. History suggests not.

this is not my prediction, rather it is a sort of 2 week out context

Taking the current situation as calculated by fvethirtyeight as the most realistic picture of reality in the field, here's what you can state:



If this exact situation held, Clinton gets 358 EV and Trump 180

But here's the interesting bit. Let's say that the outcome is 4 points to the right of this, due to polling error or whatever.

In that case, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida slide over to Trump, along with the most Dem-leaning district in Nebraska. This drops Clinton to 272 and she STILL wins.

What would it take to pick off one more state? Pennsylvania is the next closest blue state at a 6.4% lead. So you need a 6.5% move to the right for Trump to win. (with 286)

But as the experts at 538 point out, there's an equal probability of said margins of error moving in the other direction, towards her. What does that look like?

If we move everything 4 points to the left, she picks up Georgia and Nebraska 2nd and Maine 2nd and runs her total to 375

That range, 272-375 for Clinton, is where the outcome will almost certainly fall. At the high end Trump probably loses Utah to either McMullen or Clinton as well.

BUT if we did what we needed to do for a Trump win in the other direction, go 6.5% to the left, then Clinton adds Texas and Missouri and gets very close, maybe Florida 2000 close, to South Carolina and ends up with 423 or 432. Throw in Utah (because of the 3-way race factor) and her pean probability is 438. In a true landslide Trump only has 100 he can count on.

To do worse than that you need to move just over 7.5 which gets you Alaska and Indiana.

So essentially the odds are basically equal that Trump wins, or that Trump gets only 100 EV

The last poll I saw had Clinton down only 2 points in Texas.

It's been 40 years since a Democrat won Texas.

And that's the problem. When you have someone who is completely above the law and can commit any number of heinous felonies without consequence, you are living under a corrupt system of government instead of under the rule of law.

Clinton wins.

Trump announces that he never really wanted to be President anyway, and this was all just one YUGE infomercial for his new media outlet. Which will be behind a pay-wall, and the rubes will pony up and keep him from having to file for bankruptcy yet again.

And California Props 59, 61, and 62 are winners.

Cough Sarah Palin TV cough

I just ran this......and I predicted Trump.

Then you got it wrong. Most of those "battlegrounds" are already in the bag for Clinton. Georgia, Arizona, and maybe Florida are in the leans-one-way-to-leans-the-other range, but the rest range from likely Clinton to safe Clinton.

Clinton is more likely to win Texas than Trump is to win the Presidency.

Except that Hillary has only climbed out of the low 40's in a few states.

As an example of what nonsense the "Hillary already has it won" line is, you said she might take Texas. The latest Real Clear Politics poll has Clinton at 38% in Texas. John Kerry got 38% there in 2004.

She's only polling above 50% (and in the low 50's) in four states: New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, and Maryland.

Trump is likewise usually in the 40's, so the question is how all the people will vote who aren't bringing Trump+Clinton+Johnson+Stein to 100%. When the media is trying to destroy Trump with everything short of neutron bombs, how many people won't tell a pollster that they'll vote for him, and how many are simply going to vote against the media?

He probably won't ever concede and will just continue with the "it was rigged" nonsense. In fact, losing is probably what he wants at this point.

Nate Silver says things are swinging toward Trump as Johnson voters decide a Hillary Presidency would be intolerable.

And frankly, we don't need a President who looks like this

You're not honestly suggesting that Trump is better looking?

GTurner - Officially Gay For The Donald ladies and gents.

Nate Silver says this:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Yes. Trump is vastly better looking than Hillary. He's dated top models all his life.

His daughter has been on the cover of just about every top magazine out there. If she wasn't his daughter he'd date her.



In contrast:


Let's do that again.

Ivanka


Chelsea


Tourists probably walk up to her and say "You look like you're from Arkansas. We's from Arkansas. How'd you end up in this great big city?"

But she came by her lack of looks honestly, which is about the only thing about the Clintons that is remotely honest.


Whew boy!

In contast, Trump:

You're prepare to go to even whatever lengths of ridiculous just to be partisan.

Here's a good look at what Trump can inspire.



Here's a good look at Hillary has inspired.