Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Pulling Away From McCain, Opens Up 9 pt Lead

So will this uptick from Obama's international dog and pony show persist until November, or is this just another short-term bounce?

ETA: This 9-point lead is apparently Obama's largest since Gallup began this poll back on March 7.

(http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx)

Frickin' Europeans.

Did they vote in the poll?

Only 9pts?...after the Obamamania tour and the fawning press coverage he should be up 19pts.

I've seen NO press coverage of McCain this week and constant fawning over Obama. Hardly surprising.

But, as always:

1. Registered voters are not likely voters; and

2. The election's still a looooong way away.

Only a double digit number of days away starting tomorrow.

Yep. But there's still VP picks and conventions. And debates.

I do not get confident when my candidate is ahead this far out, nor do I worry when he's behind this far out. That said, I'd rather my guy be ahead in the polls now...

Are there historical precedents for candidates turning around such a situation in the last few months?

For me, plenty. I was pretty well convinced George W. Bush was going to lose in the final two weeks before the 2004 election. Kerry was running 1-2 points ahead in the polls during most of that time IIRC.

Of course, Dewey vs. Truman is the stereotypical example...

Didn't Ford come close to beating Carter in '76? He was way behind until the closing weeks?

Michael Dukakis was up by double digits for much of the summer of 1988, and by as much as 17 points at his peak.

Granted, Newsweek polls have never been very accurate...

I thought that happened to Reagan as well. Wasn't he trailing behind Carter up until a week or two before the elections in November?

I guess it will come down to who has the better October Surprise.

Isn't October when Jeremiah Wright's book comes out? :flow2:

Yah, I can picture the October surprises.

McCain: I have some new information, Obamessiah is a liar.

Obamessiah: I have some newly discovered information about my opponent. He's old.

October surprises mean little as public opinion largely solidifies in October.

Reagan and Carter were neck and neck until the debate one week before the 1980 election.

After the debate, Effectively all the undecideds, and a substantial portion of the Carter voters broke in Reagans favor.

That started the famous "undecideds always favor the challenger" election myth.

Polls right now mean less than nothing. At this time in 1992 Ross Perot had a fairly commanding lead over Bill Clinton and Bush 41.

I heard McCain on the radio the other day. Saw him on TV as well. In fact, he was on for a good long time.

But on the original topic, add me to the list of people voting "national polls in July don't mean jack."

And speaking of numbers...

It seems statistically, Obama is getting significantly more free publicity from the media than McCain.

Still, I guess maybe if McCain would make his campaign a little more like Obama's it might be more newsworthy.

McCain seems to be far too quiet especially for campaign season. Obamessiah has for the most part been going non-stop since the primaries.

The Teddy Roosevelt strategy isn't working for McCain. He needs to walk loudly (be more active) and carry a small stick (policies).

Oh, I did.

http://www.236.com/feed/2008/07/25/applesauce_attack_7935.php

A study by The Center for Media and Public Affairs found a similar discrepancy in coverage. It also found that Obama was getting far more negative coverage though, 72% versus McCain's 57%.

Ultimately it's up to McCain's campaign to get itself covered. Hanging out at German restaurants and the dairy aisle isn't going to cut it. He's running a reactive campaign like Kerry in 2004 rather than a proactive campaign like Bush or Obama. This isn't the primaries. McCain can't hang back while all the other candidates club each other to death.

And according to today's update from Rasmussen, Obama has lost 2 points against McCain.

One key difference is that Rasmussen polls so-called likely voters, while Gallup polls registered voters.

Rasmussen were the people who said McCain was gaining in key battleground states.

Frickin' Europeans.

Maybe McCain would get more media coverage if he actually started running a decent campaign. Here's what Ben Stein says about McCain's campaign:

When someone says your campaign is worse than Bob Dole's, you know you're in deep doo-doo.

For Obama to win the election, he more or less needs to have a statistically significant and comfortable lead in the final days before November 4...I'd say a minimum of 5 points, but the larger the better. The voters who decide at the last minute are going to go to McCain, probably by better than a 2 to 1 margin. Last minute voters don't vote for "CHANGE!", they'll vote for familiarity. It's the same reason that Hillary won the vast majority of last minute voters in the Democratic primaries...she was the known commodity.

If Obama is at best only ahead by an insignificant margin when Election Day comes, he'll probably lose a close election.

Interesting article. That line was especially true. Obama will invariably turn into a punching bag like every other politician in the last century.