SARS II: Respiratory Boogaloo

yes I heard about this today. As far as social distancing it would be very difficult on a crowded ship. This is inevitable I guess, and must be a navy-wide problem. Here at Fort Gordon (not sure about other army bases) since it's a training base for the most part they are at minimum manning and many of the permanent party NCO's & officers are just staying at home with their families, babysitting their kids and whatnot. Our parking lot near our office is only about half full - normally you can hardly find a parking space.

If I lived there, that would creep the ever loving fuck out of me.

And this wouldn't?

This would, too. My ability to be creeped out is quite versatile.

That, by the way, is horrendous and tragic.

The Roosevelt made port of call at Danang in early March. The whorehouses the crew visited should get a carrier painted outside their doors as a kill mark.

It is called being right, and @garamet is on your level of full of shit a lot of times.

Bickendan and soma sitting in a tree, slurping.

It wasn't because you were right or left. It was because you were completely wrong.

I guess that means even a troll like me is smarter than you snookums.

Even a building is smarter than Trump.

Tererun shows no mercy to anyone.

“Master troll.”

About you? Yeah.

Pretty sobering Twitter thread.

My sick sense of humor came up with this:
Covid’s running down the street, NY’s on high alert. Hospitals running out of beds, people in the dirt
social distancing is working slow, not enough to flatten the curve. Trump wants to open the economy early, oh what the nerve.
Dump, dump, dump, another one bites the dust.

Remember 2000 U.S. dead from yesterday? It's up to 3200 today.

Yes. Nothing to joke about by any means, but sometimes things just pop in my head. Like the Stay Puffed Marshmallow man, I can’t help it.

I guess I’m not the only one.

You are hardly "breaking it to me". Remember this graph? I have updated it, adding more real figures (in green) to the projection from six days ago. We are ahead of the curve.

(And that, despite having some of Wordforge's most renowned experts on epidemology and statistical analysis insult me in very vulgar terms because I didn't know what I was talking about and didn't understand that mathematical analysis cannot be applied to the spread of a virus.)


My point was that Trump will do anything to make himself look good. In less than a month he had gone from "We are doing a great job, there are only about 15 cases and in a few days that will be down to zero" to "We are doing a great job, we'll be able to keep this thing down to no more than 100,000 to 200,000 deaths." (Which I doubt very much, as do you.) The common denominator in Trump's statements is patting himself on the back and telling everyone how great he is, even though he has consistently refused to take the steps that could have at least slowed that curve down quite a bit.

Yup, I am not here to be your friend, nor am I here to pretend you are correct when you are blatantly wrong. I could have told you that years ago.

You do realize 200000 is still not a million?

You should also realize the death toll for this is based on false numbers because we do not know how many people actually have this, nor how many people will die because they cannot get a respirator. This means the boy is still wrong.

Would you mind linking back to or quoting the previous versions of this graph when you update it? This thread's getting long and hard to find things in.

I want the president to be an utterly cold blooded ruthless individual with no regard for the suffering of those under them.

That wasn't good Dayton-speak. He'd never be so blunt like that.

Go back to the drawing board.

Actually, the original version is right in there. The projected dates for hitting various figures, if no serious action is taken, are still right there, in red. The updates are the dates for actually hitting that figure, in purple (so far, there is only one) and the extension of the original graph (in green, as the text says). So you can see the original graph simply by ignoring the purple and green.

But if you want the history of this, it started with this post:

That came from just "eyeballing" the graph, and seeing that, when expressed on a logarithmic scale, scale, it was pretty much a straight line. IOW, a straightorward exponential expansion, which is what viral spread will be until the number of potential victims diminishes, if no measures are taken to contain it.

The next day, I actually did a careful analysis of the graph, and posted this:

I also referred back to it again a bit later, with this post:

The current analysis is that the half-hearted measures in place in the US (very mild restrictions recommended by Donald Trump, while at the same time sending out mixed signals along with his Fox News buddies about how it's not actually all that dangerous, plus local or state measures varying from fairly strict to very strict) have slowed the curve down just a bit, but nothing like what has been done in Europe. We are extremely likely to hit that 10,000 mark ahead of the date I somewhat optimistically plotted on my first version of the graph. We will probably be a bit later in hitting the 100,000 mark (I am hoping so, in any case, though Trump & Co. seem determined to make it happen right on schedule), and I still have hope that when things get bad enough even Republicans will see the light and put in place serious quarantine measures, so that we never hit that one million mark.

The effect of quarantine measures cannot be doubted. There is no way to give an exact measure of their effectiveness, but I saw a study this morning from some high-brow institution in London that says that between 20,000 and 120,000 lives have been spared in Europe because of those measures. That's a huge amount. They were able to do the same calculations I did, draw the same frightening conclusions, and then compare them to reality and see what the result had been of serious quarantines.

I can assure you, the quarantines are no fun here. Police are all over everywhere checking people, giving out fines (25,000 fines just in Paris since this started) and even stronger sentences for those who violate the rules repeatedly (there is a guy who is going on trial for being out without sufficient reason 4 times in less than 2 weeks; he has an 800 euro fine and might even be looking at jail time), and the conditions which allow one to be out of the house are very restrictive. That's one of the reasons that I've suddenly become active on Wordforge again, after several years when I just didn't have time for it. (Never did stop liking Wordforge, though.) But if those restictions can save tens of thousands of lives, they are worth it.

Try telling that to Donald Trump, though. If he had his way, we would hit that one million mark right on schedule. Fortunately, there are governors and mayors who are more intelligent than that. (I know, there are trees and rocks that are more intelligent than Donald Trump, too...). But there are too many other parts of the country that are not taking serious steps to halt the spread, so I am not yet willing to take any bets on just how bad it's going to get. Graphs can only tell you what will happen if nothing changes. But you can always hope, at least, that things will change.

[quoe="Zombie, post: 3229669, member: 57"]That wasn't good Dayton-speak. He'd never be so blunt like that.

Go back to the drawing board.[/quote]

The bastard who runs this dual seems to think I would be.

One day. One fine day.

Hey @Asyncritus the US just went beyond 3000 deaths. I know the spike is going to come, but a million might be a bit much.

Oh, and stop blaming this shit on trump people. This is the US medical system and it's capabilities that we are going to see. This is not a killer virus. In order to be 1 percent fatal to the US population we will need to see 3.5 million deaths. That means 1 in a hundred would die from it in the next few months. I get that would be a lot of people, but over all we would go on and still be way overpopulated and crowded.

It will be interesting to see the numbers when this is over, but when we are talking grand scale the world goes on. This is a small speed bump in population.

You know what will be really terrible. The US freaks out over all of this but we have killed more innocent people than this virus will in the middle east. If innocent people dying is so bad why are we not making such great effort to stop that? So many americans are actually staying in place and trying not to spread this disease so people they know do not die, but we don't do much to say stop bombing the fuck out of innocent people.

Why don't you make a graph about that.

The bastard who runs this dual seems to think I would be.

One day. One fine day.[/quote]

Joke is over dude, find a new one.

Even I am not hanging on to dayton anymore and I have a dead horse indent on my foot.