The 2020 Presidential General Election thread

It's classic GOP "I know you are, but what am I?" They really don't have anything else. And the Great Unwashed don't need anything else. When the "story" dies for lack of proof, according to the True Believers it won't be because of lack of proof, but because Dear Leader told them the FBI is corrupt.

And if the obvious will of the people gets overturned by the courts in the next few months, there is going to be major trouble.

Of course, I suspect there is going to be some major trouble no matter what happens, unless Trump wins legitimately. But I don't see how that could possibly happen at this point. There are too many polls showing he doesn't have a chance. But where I think Democrats would accept the results of the election, unless there was clear evidence of fraud, I don't think the same thing is true of all Republicans. Some of them, sure. Probably even a solid majority of them. But that lunatic minority is what is likely to cause real trouble after Trump gets stomped.

The model assumes that Trump and Biden win the same percentage of late-deciding voters as 2016, but with total major party vote percentage matching 2012 numbers to account for the likely diminished 3rd-party votes this year. In some states that means every point of undecided voters is allocated 99.3% to Trump (WI) while some allocate 83% to Trump (MN). MN has more undecided voters now than it did 1, 2, or 3 months ago.

ETA: see post 39 for more details.

The nominee could have been Bernie or Liz Warren and the outcome would have been the same. Democrats win the popular vote but lose in the Midwest because those voters fell for the “outsider gonna shake things up and drain the swamp” BS.

From what I've read the biggest Republican priority right now is generating headlines that include "Biden" and "emails." That's all the extremely low information voters need to know Biden is Hillary 2.0.

Ouch!

Just the states where one of the candidates is polling more than 50% plus right now...

I won't say Hillary was a great candidate. But even with all her inherent flaws (her arrogance, her robotic nature, 20 years of baggage) and the outside obstacles, several of which couldn't be foreseen (the FBI publicly raising issues with its investigation of her, unprecedented Russian meddling, sexism), she still came pretty close to winning the EC and won the popular vote.

I've considered giving states where Biden or Trump is polling over 50% a click towards solid over where the model put them in my map, but at this point it's probably too late and I should stay consistent.

ETA: Clinton won every state she was polling over 50% in. But that was like 4 states. I'd need to go back and check the final 2012 polling to see if that would work.

A lot of Hillary's baggage was pure bullshit spun by Republican liars. Most of it had nothing to do with reality.

No doubt. But it was a foreseeable thing that the Republicans would use the two decades worth of BS and that for some it would be an insurmountable obstacle.

Running someone who previously lived in the White House for 8 years definitely goes against the spirit of term limits, if not the actual rules, but just based on her polling numbers over the last few decades looking at how she is viewed her unpopularity is definitely overexaggerated.

The states this would affect are: MI, MN, MO, MT, NE-2, NV, PA, UT, and WI. (Trump's KS polling average was not over 50% yesterday, but it is today. But plugging today's numbers into the model, Trump was already at T>+10, so this would not affect it.)

For the hell of it, I've made that map. NOT AN OFFICIAL O2C "UNDECIDEDS MATTER A LOT" ELECTION MAP:



It's pretty heartening (NE-2 moves 2 notches because it was up over 5 points the last time it had new polling, but this time it was based on 270towin consensus). Using 538's new model toy (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/), if all the dark blue states go for Biden, and all the dark red states go for Trump, then their model shows Biden with a 99+% chance of winning. Using just my model, Biden has a 98% chance.

Jesus fuck I hope they focus grouped that with a LOT of Cuban-Americans. That could backfire spectacularly.

Cubanos, if I'm not mistaken, have loved Republicans since Nixon.

To people who lived through it? Sure. Some people have no problem comparing him to actual Nazis though.

The difference is, Trump has been harsh on the (Raul) Castro regime. Stupid, but harsh. How many Holocaust survivors aren't worried about Trump?

And yes, I realize WA is not in play but as others have said we need this election to be a blowout, not just a win. The popular vote margin matters. And locally it will help Ds across the ballot and help stamp out Trumpism here (unfortunately yes, it is a thing in rural WA).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/fbi-election-security/index.html

It has been reported that the Russians and Iranians used a top secret data source called ‘Lexus-Nexus’ to access this publicly available information. In Washington State these elite hackers might have used the ‘Download in Excel’ or ‘Download as .pdf’ buttons on the Secretary of States website.

The important take away here is that foreign intel is trying to influence our election ON BOTH SIDES.

Both sides.

BOTH! SIDES!!!!!

See post above yours. As if you could, because you're ignoring anyone who disagrees with you, and because you just jump in here with "Hey, look what I found! I'm the Smartest Guy in the Room!!!!"

Asshole.

Rick Wilson is a big fan of focus-groups and apparently uses them regularly.

As I understand it, Lexis-Nexis has combined voter registration data from several states along with other sources of information for its People Finder. So if you wanted to find out where John Jones lives in Portland, Oregon, you could have a bunch of leads. It doesn't let you see the addresses for every registered voter in a jurisidiction or cut information in other ways that might be exceedingly problematic.

I have a problem with states taking private information and selling it to Lexis-Nexis or anyone else.

I have a greater problem with foreign governments taking information -- regardless of how widely available it might be -- and using it to influence our elections.

Voting rolls and voting history aren’t private though. It is all public info.

It’s how pollsters know who registered voters and likely voters are. Also how each party makes sure the other isn’t cheating. If a dead person votes you can look that up. Also, in a place like WA it is how campaigns know who to send door knockers to make sure people vote. Every day they make lists based off who hasn’t returned their ballot yet.

All Lexis-Nexus does is save you the hassle of having to file a PDR to get them.

Now using them in this manner is likely illegal in most states, I’m not arguing against that. What I am trying to do is point out the false equivalency the Republicans are trying to pull.

Different states have different laws as to how much, if any, information is available from voter registration. According to Lexis-Nexis, it includes information from 23 states in its database:
http://www.lexisnexis.com/paralegal/pubrecs.pdf

You know for damn sure that if the other 27 states permitted access to that info, it would be in their databases as well.

Pollsters, I believe, depend primarily on self-reporting to determine whether someone is a registered or a likely voter. At least, in a couple of times when I have been called on such polls, I have been asked questions that were intended to put me in one box or another, along the lines of "When it comes to the next election, would you say you are very likely to vote, likely to vote, not sure if you will vote, unlikely to vote or very unlikely to vote?"

I hope that even Republicans will be troubled by this, even if they bizarrely spin it as an effort to hurt Trump.

Hopefully, Obama getting out and stumping for Biden will seal the deal:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/obama-philadelphia-speech-biden-harris-trump/index.html

The polls are pretty much the same as in 2016, when they were cited by the same kind of consumer certain Hillary would win, with the same degree as confidence seen these past weeks.

Obama suddenly stumping could easily be seen to suggest that the Dem insiders also know that the polls are mostly garbage.

The AI 'algorithm' that steers most of social media communication is working hard for Joe, but don't be too surprised if (when, imo) Trump wins since there is plenty of evidence that Trump has the edge (actually quite commonplace once you get outside the silo).

Such as?