The 2020 Presidential General Election thread

Trump could still win, but I'd love to see some of this evidence of which you speak to suggests it's the most likely outcome at this point.

Surely, bud, here's a recent one.



This guy Robert Barnes (once upon a time he worked for Ralph Nadar) has interesting information and POV.

Not sure what MN poll you are looking at...

Nationally, Biden has 2-3x Clinton's lead at this point. In the states that matter, it's slightly less, but largely outside the margin of error. Unlike 2016, Trump is more than "a normal polling error away from winning".

there are WAY fewer undecideds in this cycle (and way fewer 3ed party potential-switchers

538's polling average. As of yesterday, that was Biden's 49.5 to Trump's 42.3. That sums to 91.8% decided. In 2012, 97.61% of Minnesotan voters voted for a major party candidate, leaving 5.81% undecided. In 2016, 83% of late-deciding voters (undecideds and third-party defectors) voted for Trump, so I'm giving Trump 83% of that 5.81%. That leaves Biden with a 3.4-point lead. There are* just a lot more undecided voters than there have been when I've run the model before. This map is intended to show Trump with every advantage he had, not reflective of fundamentals shifts that alter the balance of undecided voters. We *should* expect Biden to beat this map.

* it seems today a few new polls came out today bringing Biden up to 50.2%

also there's a difference in her leading, say, 45-41 and Biden leading (say) 49-43 more so than just the 2 points. Being close to or above 50 is highly significant.

A new contender has entered the race.

Well yeah, but for a specific and identifiable reason - which presumably won't repeat (indeed I believe there's data in some of the polling about how people who voted 3rd party last time are breaking and, IIRC about what I've seen noticeably more are breaking to Biden than Trump)

Because Tuttle says so.

it was a tweet, a couple of weeks ago, from a reputable poll analyst but gad damn if I'm going to go looking for something that obscure.

Any chance you can post this evidence?

You're so funny.

AOC did a pretty cool GOTV event weaving reasons to vote and vote Dem into a Twitch stream of her playing Among Us (a game where teams have to work together to complete tasks whilst rooting out an imposter who is sabotaging their efforts and killing them off - there's a metaphor for Trump if I ever heard one...)

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/10/nearly-half-million-people-watch-aocs-gotv

And now the Lincoln Project goes for the jugular with "daddy issues":

Why is it that the regular Democrats are not nearly as effective or prolific with their ads as the Lincoln Project? (Or are they and I'm missing something?)

Also, what ever happened to Bloomberg's promise to support the nominee with big $$?

Just yesterday:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/bloomberg-trump-florida-spending-430236

The Lincoln Project has a different target audience than most Dems. The Lincoln Project has two main audiences President Trump and reluctant Trump voters. Their goal is to goad Trump into being reactive and turning off voters and to give reluctant Trump voters the cover to stay home or at least leave the presidential box blank (actually want to stay home as they want the Republican Party to suffer such a landslide defeat they reject Trumpism once and for all). Both are actually pretty small audiences (hell, one is an audience of one) so are easy to hit with specific messages. Also, Trump is constantly online so most of the ads don’t actually air, they just go on digital media so you can pump a lot more different ads out when you don’t have to pay to run them.

For Biden and the majority of Dems they are targeting a larger pool of voters. Focus groups and polling shows that the best use of their dollar is explaining why someone should vote for Biden, not why they shouldn’t vote for Trump. But a larger pool means a more general message. It is a lot easier to attack one person than it is to tell 10 different people why they should support you. Also these ads are generally actual television ads so more money is spent on airing them so you have less.

That should be strictly illegal. I hope it is, actually. Threating people if they don't vote the way you want is not right.

The fact that that note was posted by the owner of a Trailer Park should surprise no one.

Re that AI/algorithm (I'm making no distinction) has effect on our thinking, lives and beliefs, I'm expressing an opinion, obviously, not presenting something purporting to be fact. But I think it's clear -- e.g. US politics has shifted from a class-filter to a race filter because "news" about race stresses over the past several years has earned more clicks, more revenues, and more (and ever more distorted) coverage to exploit the profit, furthered largely by beneficiaries of the attention.

If you mean evidence that "algorithm" is bent, there's been a ton revealed (e.g. google search results and autofill).

If you mean evidence about Biden specifically, the anecdotal evidence is apparent on a daily basis, and I'm not invested enough in extraterritorial Scottish vote to attempt to persuade or inform you one way or the other. : P Same goes for the US leftist or never Trump vote. Don't misconstrue my few posts the past several weeks as an attempt to persuade anyone about anything - mostly it was just to present a pov that might soften the blow a bit to those with (genuine) case of TDS, so their hair doesn't catch on fire if results don't turn out as they expect.

------

If you mean my claim that polls are garbage, watch around 10 minutes of the vid I posted at reply # 2492, starting at 2 min. mark, for an e.g.

I'd say you're in need of a thorazine drip.

In other news, multiple stories broke on how Facebook has manipulated its social media algorithm to negatively impact left wing sites, such as Mother Jones. Both MJ and the far left Wall Street Journal have run stories on this, and it's corroborated by internal company documents that show the intended changes.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-mark-zuckerberg-learned-politics-11602853200

Not one bit. John Oliver had a good segment a while back on how incredibly exploitative most mobile home parks are.

Preying on the most vulnerable, people who have lots of money extracting it a penny at a time from people who have next to none ... how much more quintessentially Republican can you get?

I wonder how many death threats Sam Elliott's getting.

Did @The Ghost of Crazy Horse PM this video to you?