SARS II: Respiratory Boogaloo

Mild COVD19 infection produces lasting antibody protection.

https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/good-news-mild-covid-19-induces-lasting-antibody-protection/

And at any rate, the idea that it was around and we just didn't realize it basically requires the virus to have mutated from "not very contagious at all" to "holy fuck" in four months.

Remember how quickly we went from "there are 15 cases in the entire country, all linked to recent travel" to "the hospitals are overflowing and we're stacking bodies in freezer trucks"? If COVID were here in any form in November, that would have been happening by New Year's.

I find it difficult to believe that multiple labs in different countries could have all gotten their samples contaminated. It's possible, of course, but it seems unlikely to me.

I've been poking around on the CDC's website, and the data's not clear at all. It appears that the number of deaths in the US, during the final months of 2019 were high, but still within the error bars. I don't see an easy way to drill down and find specific causes of deaths, however. IIRC, it was when folks looked specifically at the numbers for pneumonia and respiratory ailments that they were above expected levels. Of course, we're dealing with a disease that has a high instance of asymptomatic carriers and only a 3% mortality rate (not to mention as long as a 14-day incubation period), so it would take a little while for the numbers to tick up. The US death rate for January 2020 from the virus was over 4K people, which means that around 150K people contracted the disease in that period of time. The R0 for covid is estimated to be somewhere between R2 and R6.6, the lower number means that to go from zero cases in the US in December 2019, to ~150K in January 2020, we had to have a number of people coming in from China carrying the virus.

Go back at look at the first couple of pages of this thread. I started it on Jan 9th, I'd seen rumors floating around on social media a while before this, but hadn't spotted anything from reliable media until about the time I started it. Eleven days later, the US announced its first official case of the disease. I think it's safe to say that 150K+ people didn't get infected (with 4K of them dying of the disease) in the last 10 days of the month. The WHO didn't call an emergency meeting about the disease until the day before the US announced the first case. It was pretty clearly able to circulate within the US for about a month without people noticing it if you assume that the first US was in early January.

It's a common argument by people arguing that lockdowns/masks don't work in any way.

On FB @frontline has been trying to argue that the reason Australia recovered quickly is that we must have all got it in 2019 and had herd immunity.

I don't have the energy to bring up India with him, how their first lockdown substantially kept them better than us despite their population base, density, and shitty healthcare system, and their going back toward normal too hard coupled with not emphasizing vaccinating their own population vs other countries, and the newer variants of Covid causing the major current spike and crisis

Well, as far as I can tell, the expects RIGHT NOW are "generally skeptical" of the idea that COVID existed anywhere in any human population earlier than about Mid to Late November in Wuhan, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.

Yep, and then people write these bogus claims on facebook, often with an accompanying meme. As soon as that happens it becomes 'fact' and the idiots lap it up!

Good news, everyone! There's now a nasal spray that cures COVID-19! In hamsters.

Weirdly, Trump is still whining about how the vaccines are wonderful and he should be getting credit for them, but that message doesn't seem to affect the cultists.

Haha

Darwin claims another.

I'm over these anti vax shitheads. Fuck him.

Let's see, wet markets are everywhere in China with all kinds of crazy shit that people eat there, but it's just a coincidence that there's a research lab in Wuhan because we can't dare agree with Trump because of partisan politics.

No, we don't agree with Trump since everything coming from his mouth is a lie.

If the CDC or other govt or international agency finds evidence the virus escaped the Wuhan lab, then it may be credible.

Maybe effort was better spent on response than looking for someone to blame?

If it's a lab leak, fine. Would this information have helped us save millions of lives over the last year and a half?

Apparantly not everything since the media and Fauci (known liar) is doing a 180 on the lab leak story.

Fauci changes his mind to fit new facts. Trump tries to change facts to fit his world view.

It's a lesson in partisanship. Maybe just because Trump says it, doesn't mean it should be automatically dismissed.

Fauci lied about masks. It's never been about "trust the science."

No he didn't.

Jesus fuck, you are every reason the virus should have ended us as a species and done the universe a favour.

With new evidence Fauci has stated there should be a full investigation.

Regarding the masks, early on Fauci was discouraging people from hoarding them because health workers didn't have enough. People were hoarding n95 masks, which when properly fitted provide 95% protection from airborne pathogens down to a certain size. These were being scooped up by the public and health workers couldn't get them. Health workers are fitted for the right size and proper fit against their face to make them effective. Joe public was not fitted.(source)

In the clip, Dr Fauci says “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”

Fauci made this comment on an interview with 60 Minutes on March 8, during the early stages of the novel coronavirus outbreak in the United States.

As Fauci told the Washington Post here , at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, masks were not recommended for the general public, as authorities were trying to prevent a mask shortage for health workers and the extent of asymptomatic spread was unknown.

As more information became available about SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, health authorities and organizations around the world have changed their stance towards the impact of face masks and the spread of the disease ( here ).
​

so yeah, he made a 140 degree turn (not quite 180) based on supplies, the spread of the disease, and the availability of alternatives. Sounds like reasoned responses.

It's unfortunate that so many listened to Fauci then, and later when masks became available and their use encouraged (not poorly fitting N95 masks) Trump and the rest ignored him.

well that's a mature, logical attitude!

As opposed to "Just Knowing" that's what happened and dismissing any other possibility.

I'm not dismissing any opportunity. That said China is known for playing fast & loose with safety protocols and manipulating scientific testing to achieve a predetermined outcome.
I just find it pathetically amusing that when Trump posited that Covid was a result of Chinese ineptitude, the left was horrified because the idea was racist and xenophobic.
Now that it's their idea it seems reasonable. No fucking doubt a cavalcade of rationalizing will result from expressing my opinion, so don't disappoint me!

What clues or evidence was Trump basing his accusation on? Did he ever say? Because from what I've read about Fauci's comments, he's apparently saying a natural origin is still the most likely source, but that he thinks we should look into it just to be sure. Those comments came after information about the sick researchers in Wuhan went public.

There's a difference between us calling each other pedophiles all the time, and the cops calling one of us a pedophile after a thorough browser history examination.