The Second Trump Presidency

Yeah, it is actually scary how close January 6 came to succeeding. If Pence had taken the line that Trump wanted him to, there's a good chance that Trump would have been able to ride things out for quite a bit. The fact that something like 30=40 percent of Republicans STILL think that the election was stolen 4 years later despite the complete absence of evidence of that and all the evidence that even Trump administration officials from Trump's attorney general down acknowledge that there was no meaningful election fraud is troubling.

That sounds like a massive bluff. Don't forget the far left/radical left have pretty much already been neutralized, they've been claiming there's no actual difference between Trump and Biden for years. Do you think they're going to suddenly step up now?

Then you've got the moderate lefties that are obsessed with protecting institutions above all else. You think Merrick Garland and Barack Obama are ever going to tell people to ignore a supreme court decision, no matter how fucked up and wrong it might be?

This whole thing relies a lot on the military acting as his and not as the US.

Are the military of the US loyal to donald trump or the US? Are the police employed by the cities loyal to donald trump or the US? Are the national guard loyal to donald trump or the US?

Because if all of these people are loyal to donald Trump how the fuck are we here? When Dumbfuck Trump says attack US citizens and we are done with the old law, then he needs someone to enforce such a thing. What you are telling me is that the military and government are going to start doing stuff as he commands as dictator.

I do not see that happening. He hasn't even established any real bonds with the military as people like Hitler and other coup leaders have done.

I am not saying he does not muck things up, but I would be amazed if the military, national guard, and law enforcement all of a sudden went full on Trump is a king mode. Even if they were to do something like that Orange dipshit doesn't know a thing about actually keeping that command. The local knitting club would be able to cripple his organization.

Damn, this guy can barely keep his own business running for himself. Do you think he is going to be able to command people to fight and die for him? Before you point me to the obvious mass of MAGAts, do you think those people are cpable of real organization and sacrifice for that cause?

If such a thing happened I am sure we would see a rare glimpse of our corporate overlords stepping in and doing something.

Well... If the Supreme court hands him the presidency, then technically he would be legally justified in using the insurrection act to send the military after anyone that tried to depose him. Morally or ethically justified? Nah. But legally he'd be on solid ground, and the military is supposed to uphold the law. There's not going to be a Mike Pence around to fuck things up this time, he's going to have an administration that's 100% Yes Men.

Are there military guys willing to go against Trump if he jumps through all the legal hoops first, knowing they'll*technically* be in the wrong and carrying out an illegal coup? I don't know. We never got to that point last time, though arguably there were at least a couple instances where it could have happened.

That's fatalism.

The odds are actually pretty long against Trump winning. It's only the electoral college that makes it even theoretically possible. The danger is that he doesn't lose hard enough to convince Republicans that MAGA is an anchor around their necks.

I'm not going to try in this post to list all the multitude of reasons to be skeptical of a Trump/MAGA win but for starters, for three cycles in a row basically every candidate or cause in a competitive race that leaned into Trump/MAGA lost, often significantly. Moreover the entire damned party is a dumpster fire, shot through with infighting, running out of money, a few key swing states - notably Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan - are even more extremely aflame. If they didn't have the backing of billionaire dark money they would hardly be viable at all in many places. Trump himself is remarkably more deranged and degraded than he was even four years ago, let alone 8. He's scarred now by very damaging information which regardless of the conclusion of ongoing cases the persuadable voter pool KNOWS that he provoked January 6 and that he hoarded classified secret documents in his home, refused to surrender them, and very likely exposed/sold them to hostile agents. They see his predatory nature and his conviction that the law cannot stop him and they are about to see his illusion of immense wealth and unending success stripped from him. They see, and will continue to see as the year progresses and they become more attuned to the race, his open and bold flirtation with the habits and methods of autocrats, his (and his party's) servitude to Russia (openly celebrated IN Russia) and as the year progresses and his situation becomes increasingly dire his response will be to become increasingly unhinged.

My guess is, barring some radical reversal (suck as Biden having a stroke in October or something) that Trump will lose the popular vote by even more than he did in 2020 and it will take an incredible confluence of events to win an electoral vote in spite of that.

Over against this, persuadable voters have really two things to make them question supporting Biden - the disastrous allegiance to Bibi's government and their actions and Gaza, and the latent fear that they would never admit to themselves, that someday Kamala Harris might become president.


The only way the Dems can fuck up what should be a wave election is if they persist in normalizing Republican extremism. EVERYTHING that the right is SAYING OUT LOUD that they intend to do if Trump and their party is MASSIVELY unpopular. All that is necessary to defeat them is to LET THE GODDAM VOTERS KNOW in **EXPLICIT** detail what the stakes are, not just in voting for Trump but in voting for ANY Republican.

Admittedly, they HAVE a history of "playing nice" but if they cannot put that aside in the face of this threat they won't exist in 3-5 years. Neither will many others.

"You won’t be affected"

That would be a very bold assumption on his part. If the U.S. collapses as the tentpole of world order (such as it is) the only people unaffected will be those already in such a shitty state that there's nowhere further to fall.

In all the years I've been aware of and followed politics, I've never seen a more target rich environment for one party to absolutely hammer the other with campaign ads showing just how awful their candidate is.

Biff gives them material every. Damn. Day. With no sign of it stopping.

The Dems need to drop the peashooter they often use and pick up a fucking chain gun.

To what extent? Think through the next step you fucking dumbass. You think the military is going to march on cities and start shooting americans for him? Do you think they are going to start acting on US soil to break up drag queen bingo? Do you think they are going to start rounding up liberals and putting them in camps for him? Is he going to lock hillary clinton and Joe Biden up? Seriously, don't threaten me with a good time. Do you know what sort of backlash would come from that? Do you know how fast SCOTUS would pucker their assholes up if he tried to convict one of them of false crimes. They would be next. They know that, which is why he cannot get their support.

There is a huge difference between carrying on as usual with the normal congressional and presidential dipshittery in place for four more years, and doing what a tyrant does.

A little bit more of the world doing things on it's own and not relying on the corrupt US to play destabilizing games, and cowboy justice might be a cool thing IMO. Maybe relying on a country that can elect Trump to keep world order is a really bad fucking idea.

I think the US political system is too polarized for things to ever go back to the way it was.

Radicalism is only increasing. Half the states are voting to go along with it.

The Supreme Court is tilted to the extreme. The House is gerrymandered, the Senate is useless as one lone senator can stall any legislation.

The average American is too lazy and ignorant to care about any of it.

Even if Trump goes away, he has already charted a course for other loonies like Vivek or Stephen Miller to follow.

Corporations are completely unregulated and can buy any politician they want. Healthcare is run by insurance companies, not medical professionals.

Our culture has an insane obsession with guns and mass shootings are normalized. The country is just fucked. IMO. We are all on a sinking ship here.

Random observation: If Trump stoked out and died on the tenth green tomorrow, you know who MAGA would immediately elevate as cult leader in his place?

Michael Flynn.

Not any of the officeholder powers who imagine themselves at the front of a MAGA wave like Matt Gaetz.

Flynn. Who's only 65.

Tell me you know nothing about how empires fall, without telling me you know nothing about how empires fall.

First of all, despite the fact that there's not an organized left in this country, tens of millions of Americans managed to show up in the streets to protest Trump, the murder of George Floyd, and other things. Next, let's look at some of what Trump has pledged to do:
1. Seal the Southern border. Okay, we already have problems because of Abbott fucking with things crossing the border. I'm not talking about the stand-off between him and the Border Patrol, I'm talking about when he started delaying trucks so that his forces could "inspect" them. A lot of food rotted and went bad on those trucks before they got "inspected." Now, imagine if that happens in every state bordering Mexico. Food shortages and inflation will be the inevitable result.

2. Deport tens of millions of people. This is with little regard to if they're here legally or not. Doesn't matter how many millions of them he's able to deport, suddenly we've got a lot fewer people to pick crops (more food shortages), as well as fewer people willing to work for lower wages (more inflation).

3. Gut the Federal government and replace career employees with those loyal to Trump. You think the Federal government is run by inept boobs now, just wait until people who make Boebert look like a Rhodes Scholar start running stuff.

4. Execute drug dealers. Suddenly, the guy dealing drugs knows that he's not going to jail, he knows that if he's caught, he's unlikely to live long enough to make it to the jail.

Now, let me throw in that if Trump gets re-elected, his fanboys aren't going to wait for him to give the order to do things, but are going to start right away. Add in the odd natural disaster (wildfire, hurricane, or tornadoes), and maybe a little industrial accident (train hauling toxic waste derails, a fertilizer plant goes up), and tensions start getting ratcheted up significantly.

We already know that if a "Blue" state gets hit by a natural disaster, Trump's not inclined to do anything to help them. Do you think that he's suddenly going to change his mind about this after being made dictator for life? And what do you suppose will happen if a bunch of rednecks roll into a neighborhood like mine (that's 80% Latino), planning on burning everyone out, only to get shot at by some of the residents? Think Trump's going to cheer the folks defending their homes?

You need to get the idea out of your head that things are going to be divided up into neat little lines. A cornered rat cares little for the politics of the mice trapped with him, he just hopes they'll join him in fighting the cat. Oh, and I'm sure that Putin, at least, will be more than happy to send money and supplies to anyone rising up to fight Trump. North Korea probably will as well.

I'm not even going to get into how the military might fracture, or what the US pulling back most of its forces stationed around the world might do. Remember, for 70 years, Croats, Serbs, Muslims, and others, all lived "happily" next to one another until the Soviet Union fell, then not long after that, Yugoslavia imploded violently. That's what the US is looking at. Add in the US invading Mexico (as a way to try and distract from domestic issues), and shit gets real fucking ugly, real fast.

There is a chance Twitler gets elected in 2024, and I survive to 2028 to see that our necromancer does not bring this thread up because he is afraid we will all remember when he had such a chicken little fit he actually laid an egg.

I will see you in four years if you have the courage to face your craven clucking.

Might be him.

Might be Tucker Carlson, who just did his pilgrimage to Mecca Moscow that all good Republicans are required to do.

How's this for a scenario. Trump picks Carlson for VP. SCOTUS rules that Trump can't be President - but that doesn't mean he can't be on the ballot. Trump wins the election, but can't hold office. President Carlson.

Again, I don't think that the GOP really has much of a chance with Trump on the ticket, but the fact that things like this are even possible is astonishing.

Carlson would be better than Flynn, who is a psycho. And yes, I know what Carlson is - but he does this as a performative act for money, Flynn actually believes all the bullshit.

You have more faith in the system than I do.

I'm with Tuckerfan. Fully expect civil war and for Trump to "get rid of his enemies" within weeks, if not days. He may be an idiot, but the majority of the GQP are not and they will jump on the chance to enact all their worst ideas with little to no push back.

I just hope I can leave Nevada by then.

Oh, I think if Trump gets in there will be civil war. The best case scenario is half of the country just says fuck it, we are out. President Newsome of Pacifica.

But the massive syphillitic narcissist that is Trump would absolutely go all in on war at that point. That's his dream - crush everyone that oppose him and announce himself King.

I just think there are some pretty good signs that Trump isn't going to win at this point, and I expect that to increase the closer we get to the actual election.

Children on the far left saying 'We hate Biden, we'd rather have Trump' are going to have a come to Jesus moment. Trump really is an existential threat to not only democracy but civil rights, especially LGBTQ and minorities. Women already are rallying to Biden's side.

If necessary, Biden kicks Netanyahu to the curb closer to the election, Israel is going to win anyway, Trump's going to be toxic with anyone left in the center as his trials go forward, and Biden's October surprise is already in play - he's going to reschedule cannabis.

Now it isn't a sure thing, but I'm feeling pretty good about where we are headed. 2025 should start with a 2nd Biden term, Trump in prison and bankrupt, MAGA in existential crisis, and saner laws on the books.

2028 should see more progressive impact in Congress as more and more Gen Z starts voting and more Boomers die off.

Much like mentioned earlier, if you truly believe this I hope you aren't leaving the easy winnings from betting on Trump to lose.

Keep in mind that virtually every poll shows a margin of error of 3-3.5 (sometimes more) so the top three tiers here are showing, on average, a tie.


Also, I was diddling with a EC calculator earlier, and Biden could actually let Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin slip away and still eek out a win in the EC

Betting sites are not the sort that I want having me on their radar in any context. I don't morally object to gambling but probably the only thing I mistrust more than betting sites are those related in any way to crypto.

What matters is not so much how they do head-to-head nationally but what might happen in the various swing states. I am relatively calm about all this because I doubt that Trump in his current posture -- let alone his future posture, where he may have at least one of his criminal cases reach verdict -- will be able to both hold on to all his 2020 states and pull enough Biden states to his column to win.

I could see Trump snatching back Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona back.

But then I can also see him losing Ohio and Florida, states he had won previously. I could see DeSantis quietly getting his revenge by doing a bunch of passive-aggressive stuff to hurt Trump or not doing the sort of stuff he would have otherwise done to suppress Democratic votes. I could see that the attack of Biden's too old failing spectacularly in Florida.

https://amp.theguardian.com/technol...-video-casting-biden-as-paedophile-says-board

Zuckerberg appears to be betting on Trump, since a doctored video making Biden look like a pedophile apparently doesn't break any Facebook rules now.

Biden might make it interesting but at this point so many Republicans and Republican affiliated “Independents” have moved to Florida it’s a foregone conclusion that Trump will win. They are coming from the Midwest and Northeast.

Yeah that's something I've definitely noticed - the "mainstream media" that people like @Steal Your Face like to incessantly cry about sure don't seem to be on team Biden this time around

It's almost like they miss those juicy Trump ratings and are most loyal to chaos over anything else

Or the directive has been handed down that Biden is no longer "their guy."

If we were to pretend that "media organization" was not an oxymoron, who has handed down the directive that "Biden is no longer 'their guy,' and who would be their guy in this scenario?

No idea what the anointed replacement might be. Just speculating that the entities pulling the strings of that wing of propaganda media may have handed down the directive that Biden’s failures and infirmities are no longer to be downplayed.