2020 Presidential Primaries

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Nova, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. TheLonelySquire

    TheLonelySquire Fresh Meat

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  2. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    It's nice to know that we can always count on you to be a pig.
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  3. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    Shot #4 goes to Kamala Harris

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  4. TheLonelySquire

    TheLonelySquire Fresh Meat

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    Cmon, it's a compliment!
  5. Tuttle

    Tuttle Listen kid, we're all in it together.

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    Interesting. Missed that one, thank you.

    Which means I still could be accurate when I argued that CNN (et al., I just use CNN as a proxy for most of left wing press) will attempt to help clear the field of candidates CNN doesn't think can win, but that I was wrong that CNN will pick Harris. Except maybe for 2 things: maybe this article critical of Harris wasn't promoted as the same kind of 'hit piece' (not sure if CNN showed it at top of their news items), Harris had not yet announced she was running, CNN might during next couple of day publish complimentary stories about Harris, and that critical story you identified was just to clear out some of the critical arguments likely to later come from GOP, get them out of the way before shifting to some positive puff pieces. Time will quickly tell on that one.

    Anyway, great find, thank you!
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  6. Quincunx

    Quincunx anti-anti Staff Member Administrator

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    Harris's record as a prosecutor may end up helping her in the general election more than it hurts her in the primary.
  7. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 the only real finish line

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    a pig who will be in that voting booth in 2020! :D
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  8. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 the only real finish line

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    a prosecutor? She better stay away from those "SUPER PREDATOR" comments! That usually gets taken the wrong way for some reason.
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  9. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    Without a primary victory there is no general for her. I have no issues with what came up in the article, but the base she is trying to cater to is not exactly the "law and order" type. And I'll be very curious going forward what a "progressive prosecutor" is.
  10. Order2Chaos

    Order2Chaos Ultimate... Immortal Administrator

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    I liked Harris until she went after Backpage (before they were super slimy) a few days before her Senate election, and then dropped the case afterward. A clear abuse of power, IMO. And she’s been involved in covering up prosecutorial misconduct, and defending indefensible district policy when a drug testing lab went dirty.
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  11. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    [​IMG]

    Damn! You really do need to get out more.
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  12. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    Interesting. Can't wait to see how she handles that in a debate.
  13. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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    No way is this country mature enough to be able to vote for him.
    We're a nation of 12-year-olds, and his last name is a deal killer.
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  14. T.R

    T.R Don't Care

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    Well , that and mayor of a tiny city(population 100,000 people) isn't going to help him stand out from the rest.
  15. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    that makes 10 declared (not all, or even most, of them serious) candidates.
  16. Bailey

    Bailey It's always Christmas Eve Super Moderator

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    It's going to be interesting to see how Trump reacts to the Dem primaries. He doesn't like not being the centre of attention.
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  17. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    From FiveThirtyEight:

    How Pete Buttigieg Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination

    Step 1: Arrange for Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard, and Julian Castro to get eaten by sharks.​

    Okay, it doesn't say that. But it might as well.
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  18. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    Just because I like playing with maps, here's what it looks like if Trump's approval rating in every state as of December 2018 also ends up being the 2020 margin. Safe is over 10 points, likely is 5-10 points, lean is less than 5 points.

    [​IMG]

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/3oJDY

    The main problem here is that it's kind of dubious to assume that approval ratings translate into votes -- there are plenty of Republicans who like to say they disapprove, but who will fall in line on Election Day. Also, a yes-or-no on Candidate A doesn't necessarily translate to a decision between Candidate A and Candidate B.

    These approval numbers are from Morning Consult. It'll be interesting to see what they have for January, since FiveThirtyEight's tracking average has him going from about 10 points underwater to about 15 points underwater from December to January. But that could also be a swing stemming from the shutdown that will be followed by a reversion to the mean (which seeme to be net approval of about -10 points).
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  19. matthunter

    matthunter Ice Bear

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  20. Steal Your Face

    Steal Your Face Anti-Federalist

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  21. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    where did you find state-by-state approvals?
  22. Nova

    Nova livin on the edge of the ledge Writer

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    pull Texas across the line and the humiliation will be complete.
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  23. tafkats

    tafkats scream not working because space make deaf Moderator

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    Morning Consult.

    FiveThirtyEight gives them an overall B-minus rating with an average error of D+0.6.
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  24. Shirogayne

    Shirogayne Gay™ Formerly Important

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    With FL letting released felons vote again (which adds about 1 million additional eligible voters), that could be...interesting :diablo:
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  25. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  26. Marso

    Marso High speed, low drag.

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    Bernie supporters could be photographed standing arm in arm with Stalin. They don't care. Socialism is the cure.
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  27. Lilac

    Lilac Fresh Meat

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    they capitalizing on socialism then? What does that make capitalism or socialism?
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  28. oldfella1962

    oldfella1962 the only real finish line

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    about half of those released felons will be back in prison by 2020.
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  29. Tuckerfan

    Tuckerfan BMF

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  30. Lanzman

    Lanzman Vast, Cool and Unsympathetic Formerly Important

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    Meh. Of all the announced Democrats so far, only Warren would get my vote. Harris is interesting, but I don't think she has the oomph to win, even against a badly wounded Trump.

    And all this assumes Trump actually makes it to 2020 without being impeached. And if not Trump 2020, who do the Republicans run? Pence? Not a fucking prayer, there. Ryan? AH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!! No, but seriously. If Trump goes down, does that mean Jeb! 2020?