2024 Primary Elections.

Anyone who thinks you can stand up a full primary campaign in the last days of February is too helplessly moronic to listen to on any other political opinion

Katie Porter is my girl.

It will be a huge waste of talent if she doesn't win this race.

(all respect to Barbara Lee, but she's too old. No real disrespect to Schiff but he's a bog standard Dem pol, better than many, not as good as others, maybe he can follow Newsom in the governor's office?)

Biden’s age is a problem without a solution - Vox

My Thesis: It's possible that the "Biden is weak" narrative actually flows from our own collective subconscious sense that in a sane world, any incumbent would be utterly crushing a candidate like Trump (who would be on his way to a McGovern-ish loss) and since he's not, he's "weak"

But the reality is that we no longer live in a politically sane society. Judging the reality of a close race between these two according to conventional political logic as a sign that Trump is stronger than he should be & Biden weaker than he should be. But it's not conventional.

Once you realize and accept THAT, it largely dismisses the idea that Biden is actually weak. Particularly as opposed to other potential Dem candidates, several of whom are very appealing in a vacuum. The real issue this year is that our political system, in almost every regard is in critical condition, on life support, and has no assurance of surviving another year. This is everything from our archaic systems like the EC, to a compromised and unreliable cowardly press, to a shockingly spineless Democratic Party, to an openly ruthless and fascist GOP.

My own personal bias here is that while things are REALLY bad when 30-40% of the country don't JUST want to beat Biden but actively love the idea of a Trump dictatorship - at the same time I have SOME confidence that when the chips are down he'll lose worse than he did last time and that ultimately has nothing to do with Biden unless he has a health crisis before election day.

But voters are stupid and two things do worry me: A. Biden MUST disassociate himself from Bibi's war and try to repair the damage he's already done by not having yet done so; B. dirty little secret is that you don't even need to be worried about Biden being too old (even performatively) if you were comfortable with his VP becoming president...and a lot of folks simply are not. People who like Harris LOVE her, but a significant portion of even Dem voters think, not without reason, that if you told the voters "Don't worry about Biden, Harris is ready!" you'd actually lose support. If his VP was, say, Corey Booker or Chris Murphy a LOT of the "too old" stuff evaporates.

The Biden is weak argument is only dubious when you do not have a career of weakness. Weakness is a very polite way of saying fell prey to a whole lot of racism and sexism. Biden was a comical joke when he was VP. This Biden is weak thing is not new. It was the but to the Trump option.

I know a lot of Bisden supporters conveniently block out his history in their heads, but he was never the sharpest tool in the shed either. He sucks. He is corrupt. The only reason he is the dem choice is because they have cancelled anyone else who might be a challenge to him. There is cancel culture. I know you wrote a big long thing that it isn't where they say it is, but it is there. The fucking boy sees the obvious reality, and he can't see through Trump and Joe Rogan.

The emperor president has never had any clothes on. It slowed the nicest president we ever had down to a crawl in helping people, and he does more in his elderly years than he ever did as president. You had to have actors like Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump try to pretend they had clothing on while one was batshit insane, and the other has batshit for brains.

The problem here is they are running a guy you always had to make excuses for when he was in his prime. You are waking up from the propaganda spray. You can keep making excuses for Biden or recognize shit is fucked and there is no better time than the present to start calling it the fuck out. They let Trump become president. If there is anyone in charge over that, even if it is just corporate media, they have to be watched and regulated. We also cvannot let people like Federal Farmer and his gang of Joe Rogan investigators be the ones we look to for news.

https://bsky.app/profile/sethcotlar.bsky.social/post/3km7jfz6ltu2v

It's not that I think that Biden is the Democrats' Reagan or some such, so much as I don't think he's as weak as people perceive in THIS context.

Put another way, if Trump was over and not a factor, I'm pretty sure Haley and several other Republicans would coast to a(n undeserved) win over Biden.

But my case is that you can't project this race based on what would happen in a normal election cycle. I'm not sure how long it will be until we have another "normal" election cycle. What I do know is that the whole narrative of 2019-2020 was that Biden was weak, and he won anyway. And regardless of the polls, Trump has dramatically increased baggage now as compared to 2020. 25% of SC voters on Saturday said that under no circumstances would they vote for Trump in November. And that's BEFORE convictions (at least one of which will drop by the summer and potentially one or two more by November).
If Trump loses 7% of his vote in 2020 in NC he'd have less than Biden did.
For Florida it's 9%.
For Texas it's 12%
For Ohio it's 16%

Yes, Biden might lose some because of Israel and the dumb-ass "too old" schtick. But there's already a margin for that.
But if Trump is dropping even 4-5% in a state like Michigan, he can't flip anything. You can be (relatively) weak even as compared to the last election you won and still win in that environment. If I were worrying about Biden's weakness, it would be that Congressional candidates would run weak defensive campaigns. If they want to hold the Senate and re-take the House they need bold, assertive, proud branding and passionate work to brand Republicans as fascists, theocrats and lunatics (sometimes all three in one person)

They could make a thousand of these that are entirely plausible and possible. AND THEY SHOULD.

https://x.com/LoneStarLeft/status/1761535636329103476?s=20


THEY SHOULD BE MORE INESCAPEABLE THAN PHARMA COMMERCIALS WITH PEOPLE SINGING ABOUT THEIR POOP.

The #1 election issue is that voters DON'T KNOW the risk they face.
TELL THEM.

The only way Dems can lose if they run a timid defensive campaign where they are baited into debating CRT and girls sports and other such horseshit.
But...that's what Dems do. Whether they can break their habits I can't say.


(to be fair, they have won beyond expectations in every cycle from 2018 forward, without redefining the GOP brand, but still)

Koch’s pushing rope, it seems.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/25/koch-afp-nikki-haley-00143212

You know it's bad when the donors start getting worried.

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/23/biden-notecards-fundraisers-donors-age

https://www.politico.com/live-updat...ndale-denies-rumors-pregnant-staffer-00143336

You couldn't have more selectively quoted out parts of that article.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4491369-haley-trump-gop-nominee-suicide/

Go get’em Nikki!

https://bsky.app/profile/timcarvell.bsky.social/post/3kmgxcthbus2d

Not untrue but...

Project 2025 wouldn't go away if she was elected. There are some very bad things she wouldn't do - like abandoning NATO or carrying water for Putin....

But there's a very long list of very nasty shit that the zealots want to do that she wouldn't interfere with.

That didn’t last long.




https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4493677-williamson-unsuspending-presidential-campaign/

The media is convulsing over the “uncommitted” Democratic vote in Michigan, which was about 13-14% last I checked.

If it was over 25% I think that would be flashing red lights for the Biden administration. But this number seems quite manageable heading towards November. And not everyone voting uncommitted was doing so because of his Israel/Palestine stance. Many will come home the closer we get to the election.

Trump gets 68% and he's cruising to victory. Biden gets 81% and he's facing a stiff challenge.

Liberal media, everybody!

Haven’t seen the numbers but someone on SM said that so far Trump has underperformed his polls in every primary.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/illinois-trump-removed-ballot-insurrectionist-ban/index.html

The NYT this election cycle is making "but her e-mails" look like an in-kind contribution to the Clinton campaign with their coverage this year. It's really astonishing even when you know their history of striving to prove to the right that they really aren't liberal.

Trump is actually running against people in a primary where his opponents are being backed with media time and not being stomped out. Biden is an incumbent where his party is making sure no one running against him gets any media time, and he still isn't getting over 90 percent. He lost 20 percent to none of the above in his own party primary in an election where he cannot have people staying home.

When you have the deck stacked for you by the dems and you are running against Donald Trump in a second term and 20 percent of people are saying they won't vote for you, then you are screwing the fuck up badly. Let us remember last primary the only reason why Biden was able to get the dems to close the election for him was because Obama and then COVID caused everyone else to drop the fuck out. Now the only way he he gets 80 percent of the vote is for everyone else to be oppressed by the DNC and the media.

You are welcome for the explanation of why Biden is a fucking awful loser and needs to cheat his ass off to win.

Some more info from Maricopa Co.





https://x.com/stephen_richer/status/1763034707745468857


Anyone think it is a coincide this TPUSA field agent/mendacious hack changed her mailing address the last day to do so knowing her ballot had already been prepped?

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker

Hack needs to learn how take an L and move on:

Yep. Called it.

This TPUSA hack had moved to Tempe at least by October when she posted pics representing Republican Women of Tempe.





She waited until the last moment to create this ‘problem’.

I know Republicans have no morals and thus no shame but DAMN!

Today was the last day for early voting here so on my way to an assignment I stopped by a polling place so I could vote against Biff again.

https://bsky.app/profile/mitchellepner.bsky.social/post/3kmpy2ynmes2p

It’s a pretty sad state of affairs that we’re no longer voting for a person, but voting against a person. I’m not just talking about Trump, it’s across the board in politics now.