America - Not the land of Red, White, and Blu-Ray

Full disclosure, the full text of the article has the usual nonsense about bowing down to the all-mighty coaxial and fails to note the distinction between downloaded HD and real HD. Additionally, I feel that mentioning the number of HDTVs to draw a connection is suspect, as a large number of sales were likely due to folks not understanding what the digital transition was about and buying away.

The two parts I bolded were what blew me away. More Americans own HD-DVD players? I'm guessing this has to take into account that HD-DVD still shows up in fancy multiformat burners. But still. Six percent? A growth of two percent over a year in which it was the only HD format?

I think this backs up at least one of my suspicions that the success indicated by the Blu-Ray disc sales was in reality a market saturated entirely by enthusiasts.

I've mentioned before that I just don't think that customers are willing to shell out for an entire HD ecosystem to truly enjoy the benefits of HD (cue the "Oh how miserable it must be to be destitute Kyle."), and that the not-really-HD offered online is good enough for most people. Toss in the general confusion as to what it takes to really get an HD setup going (hell, even Best Buy acknowledges this) and a terrible economy, I don't really think it's any surprise to see Blu-Ray faltering in America.

Have you seen hd bsg?

Shut up.

I know a couple of people who have laptops with HD-DVD drives, I'd agree with you that is probably the reason (although I'm surprised 11% of Americans have access to a HD-DVD drive)

I totally admit that Blu-Ray will remain a "niche" market for another year or so... until the price of BD players come down another $100 or so.... but I have no doubt that it will be the dominant home theater format in the future.

Bah.

I'll get a Blu-ray player if and when it comes as part of whatever game console I buy so I can play Final Fantasy XIII.

Ahem.

I know it's a bit pricey, but it is absolutely worth it. Rumor has it that there is a price break on the way.

I wonder if that number is counting PS3 owners.

According to this post from Scorp in Press Start, there are over 23 million PS3 consoles worldwide. The site he referenced is down right now.

Yeah, that number seems a little low. They must be either excluding PS3's, or excluding all the other players.

That said, I still don't have one. I may get one when Black Friday rolls around, as I suspect the 5 AM sales will include a $99 Blu-Ray player.

Aha, checked the Harris Poll source - 9% have the PS3, and 3% have the HD-DVD add-on for the 360.

So, that brings Blu-Ray up to 16%, which I think is a little more reasonable, yet still pretty disappointing, when you consider that it also brings HD-DVD percentages up to 14% - a 2% difference between the living HD optical format and the dead HD optical format? Better than the 11% to 7% comparison of before, but still hardly celebratory.

The poll also notes that both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sales went up about the same over the past year. They even note that over the last six months, the ratio of HD-DVD-to-DVD disc purchases was higher than the BRD-to-DVD disc purchase ratio. On that note, I'm guessing it has to be due to fire sales to clear HD-DVD inventory.

If anything, I think this is a clear sign to Sony to start dropping prices on the PS3 to help spur market penetration when the study indicates that there will actually be a decrease in demand for the format (7% of non-BR owners indicate plans to purchase compared to 9% last year). Another stumbling block noted in the study is that many owners of BR players are hoping that the media price will come down before they expand their collection.

One other thing I noticed amongst the purchase plans of BR owners - there seems to be a consistent 25% of the owners that are wholly committed to the format, buying only BR and working towards fully replacing their standard-def discs.

Interesting to think about, at least.

Walmart has Blu-Ray players for $129.

That's interesting, but since I still have my old-school 30" TV, I don't see the benefit to me.

actually did see one with 100 to 200 at a local bestbuy computer one.

A good friend of mine was one of the people who bought HD-DVD a couple of years ago.

He was lamenting the fact that he "guessed wrong" during a recent visit.

Unfortunately, I'd have to enter a Wal-Mart.

Yeah... but those aren't BD-Live enabled players and it seems that the software for the players might need upgrading every once and a while. Does it have an ethernet port? Does it up-convert standard def video to look decent on 1080p hardware?

Once considered, the price of a PS3 isn't all that bad when you consider you get all of that plus a gaming console and online access to the PS store, game play online and a BD live enabled, upconverting player.... with wi-fi.

don't get me wrong... I am hoping that Sony will make a price drop... There certainly is pressure for them to do so.

Definitely get the HDTV first.... and make sure it's 1080p with at least 20,000:1 contrast ratio. This will give you enough really appreciate the dramatic contrast between DVD and BluRay.

Alpha's got some inside info from the Obama administration.

I've still got a 19" Zenith that I bought maybe 12 years ago. And over half my movies are on VHS.

Blu-Ray's penetration in the market is about the same as DVD's at the same point in time. That's an even more favorable statistic to Blu-Ray as, unlike DVD, a new set is required.

As for "losing out to alternative technologies," what are they? I know many people who have Blu-Ray, but none who are using some alternate HD delivery system (except, perhaps cable/satellite).

If 6-7% of American households have Blu-Ray now, that's pretty significant. We're still only a little more than a year past the format war...

Also, Kyle, have you tried any other HD media options? I'm currently looking for opinions on other services such as VUDU, AppleTV and the Playstation Store. So far, I've found AppleTV and the Playstation Store to be limited and frankly, dissappointing when compared to Blu-Ray. Have you tried VUDU? It seems to me that they can't match the variety of Blu-Ray and the limited storage capacity would be a major problem for me.

What do you think will be the dominating fomat of the next 10-15 years?

Contrast Ratio means absolutely nothing because every company measure's their CR differently. 1080p and at least 120hz, that's what matters now. I want an LED TV when I get another TV in a year or so after I buy a house or condo. At that point I'll have my 40" LCD in the bedroom and whatever LED I decide to buy for the Living Room. Right now I have my LCD in the bedroom because my roommate has 52" LCD in the living room. I like having HD in both spots.

Here's the issue with digital downloads right now, and why, despite my feelings about Blu-Ray, I still find them to be rather laughable.

It doesn't avoid the hardware problem, and it creates another problem. Namely, you're still going to need some machine hooked up to your TV, but now, you have to figure out a way to get your movies onto that machine. AppleTV essentially tries to keep it all localized, by hoping to drive the downloads directly onto the machine after being purchased, and by streaming via Bonjour, but that still requires a home network. I'm going to point out here that the majority of America doesn't understand that you're going to need a three-foot HDMI cable to actually get HD video from your Blu-Ray player to your TV - a home network is probably beyond them as well.

On top of all that, while we're just now reaching a point where psuedo-HD content can be streamed on relatively common connections, it is still beyond the capabilities of most. The state of broadband in America is so bad that the FCC has basically dumped a ton of money into figuring out what to pursue and how to actually saturate the country with broadband, not just urban centers and states east of the Mississippi. In the meantime, broadband companies are investigating bandwidth caps that would realistically prevent people from streaming or downloading HD content without paying an exorbitant amount of money per month.

Currently, HD video is largely an enthusiasts game (whether it be film enthusiasts or technology enthusiasts or, I expect, those who are both that probably make up that 25% figure I mentioned before).

Unlike DVD, Blu-Ray has the benefit of being able to play the full previous generation's library - gives it a head start (which is why I don't really put much stock in the "Well, it's doing better than DVD did" argument - you aren't necessarily going to lose anything by making the transition). And it will, down the line, become the dominant optical media format for home entertainment. However, assuming it makes the gains mentioned in this article, that's a long way off.

What the digital download crowd has going for it, however, is 'good enough' quality. The proponents of that medium recognized that, for most people, the quality issue isn't a large stumbling block. These are people that would happily buy fullscreen DVDs so that 'they don't waste space on the TV' and who force aspect ratios. And YouTube has proven time and time again that people will suffer through awful AV quality for entertainment. They'll happily consume something with better-than-DVD quality. There isn't a question about it. This group still has yet to overcome the technological boundaries, though. I would imagine once Blu-Ray finally breaks through 50% however, it'll be more viable.

What wouldn't surprise me to see happen is a hybrid of the two technologies, with Blu-Ray being adopted by enthusiasts and businesses, and digital downloads being targeted to average consumers interested in quick consumption of media. A sort of filet mignon to strip steak analogy, if you will.

However, I think either option is still in its infancy. I think a really impressive application of using both technologies might actually lie in a hybrid player - consumers purchase videos online via the player. The BRD is shipped immediately, but a download of the film is also started onto the player. You get to enjoy your purchase almost immediately, and you also get a glistening high-def disc on your doorstep in a few days for future enjoyment and presentation. The store could also then sell other video content as well that is download-only.

I'm surprised that 47% of adults own HDTV's. I wonder if that includes computer monitors.

I'm not. I'm pretty sure they started popping up when I was leaving high school, so that's five years ago now. The DTV transition helped, I'm sure.

HDTV started popping up in 1998. They were widescreen CRT tvs and there was very little broadcast in HD, but it was there. I think most the HD programming at the time was live sports events and The Tonight Show and Letterman.

When WFAA started broadcasting DTV in 1998, their signal interfered with cardiac monitors at Baylor University Medical Center.

[YT="Commercial from 1998--only four-and-a-half inches thin!"]vrKv_zEDFSc[/YT]

^I just got back from the Society of Information Display show in San Antonio, and one of the vendors (I forget which--LG?) was displaying a big TV (more than 50") that was 6mm thick (about a quarter of an inch). That would truly be a wall mountable set...

I currently have no TV, as the movers broke my baby...




I was so fucking pissed. I loved that TV, more than I ever loved a TV before, more that I even thought it possible to love a TV.... were I to die and they make a movie about my life, that TV would be cast as Rosebud. And now she's gone... gone....