Now that every uncalled race has been called, except for the Alaska Senate race in which both possible winners are Republicans, it's possible to calculate the winner of the Wordforge 2010 election prediction contest. And the winner ... the inaugural holder of the title Wordforge's Master Prognosticator ... is ... Caedus! By calling the Senate at 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans, and the House at 245 Republicans and 190 Democrats, Caedus came closest overall to the actual tally of 53-47 in the Senate and 242-193 in the House. Here are the rankings, along with the number of points each person accrued. The total number of points is equal to (House difference) + (Senate difference x 4.35). Fewer points equals a higher level of accuracy. 1. Caedus: 7.35 2. Demiurge: 10.7 3. Order2Chaos: 14.05 4. Nova: 16.05 5. Cobalt: 18.7 6. Paladin: 21.05 7. ehrie: 21.35 8. Oerdin: 24.35 9. Nautica: 25.7 10. Chuck: 26.7 11. Delaware: 29.7 12. Liet: 30.53 13. Zombie: 42.8 The Wordforge average was 19.41. The Wordforge average with outliers discarded was 18.72.
How can the House be called? There's still over a million votes not yet counted in CA, and 2 very close congressional races with margins of 2000 (with 36k ballots left) and 1400 (with over 150k ballots left).
Aw, fuck. Really? I found a list that had all the seats final except for Murkowski/Miller. I don't think the overall winner will change, but the rankings could vary a bit. So should I just put the spreadsheet away until, I don't know, January 3?
Since we don't know yet how many will turn out to be RINOs, Skin -- not having made any prediction -- is WINNAR.
