Brexit now leading by 10 points

I'm not sure you know what your position is. But here's what you said your position was:

Here's what the source you presented as evidence says:

He did not say, but it's been indicated many times before during Scotland's earlier referendum.

Telegraph article from 2014.

Spain and Belgium 'would veto an independent Scotland's EU membership'
Ruairi Quinn, former president of EU's finance council, predicts secessionist movements in both countries would mean they block membership application

Both Spain and Belgium would block an independent Scotland's application to join the European Union, a former president of the EU's finance council has predicted.​

Nations have interests, and among those are not setting the stage for their own dissolution.

^^Which was the opposite situation to the one we have now.

No, it's almost exactly the same, and illustrates another strong reason the EU will not want to admit Scotland.

Earlier Scotland had a referendum on leaving the UK that narrowly failed. They'd been warned that although as part of the UK they're a member of the EU, if they break away they won't be admitted very easily, if at all. That stance is to discourage other break away regions from thinking they can ditch their old national loyalties and just become a new EU member state.

Then we had the Brexit referendum where the entirety of the UK voted on leaving the EU, and Brexit very narrowly won. The EU doesn't want countries to leave like that, and doesn't want others having similar referendums.

In that referendum, Scotland, which I'll take as typical of a European break-away region, voted 62% to 38% for Remain, while Northern Ireland (which also might break away) voted 56% to 44% for Remain. There were about a million votes for Leave in Scotland and 350,000 Leave votes in Northern Ireland, the two potential break away regions whose votes could have defeated Brexit, but didn't. It's in the EU's interest to make sure more countries don't leave, and one way to do that is to make sure people living in a country's breakaway regions vote Remain.

But if the EU's stance is that they won't just admit breakaway regions as new and separate EU member states when their former country stays in the EU, they sure can't set the precedent that a breakaway region can join the EU if it's former country exits or just about everybody in a break away region would vote for Exit. The break away regions get a say in their home country's voting, you see. So the EU gains Catalonia but loses the rest of Spain because everybody in Catalonia voted for Spain to leave the EU, just so Catalonia could rejoin it without the rest of Spain. They lose nothing but their chains to Madrid, and ironically Spain would be leaving the EU even if the Spanish Exit barely failed outside of Catalonia.

The votes in Scotland and Northern Ireland could have decided the UK's Brexit vote in either direction. Combined they cast 3.47 million votes in a contest that was decided by a little over a million. They could knock the UK out of the EU, triggering article 50, and then leave the UK and join the EU even if Brexit had failed in England and Wales. So the rest of the UK would have to reapply for admission, hat in hand, while Scotland and Northern Ireland could just veto their admission.

That's not the kind of power a national government wants to give break away politicians. That's not the kind of outcome the EU dare encourage.

So admitting a break away region after its home nation has exited the EU potentially sets a far worse and more destabilizing precedent than just admitting a break away region at all.

Why would such an announcement happen at a meeting of the Visegrad Group? I mean, I'm all for it but why use the meeting of a small but annoying group of countries to announce it when there's a summit with everybody just around the corner?

UFO Landing in WH Rose Garden!

Just looking at tiny little Austria I see one. I'm not aware of Carinthia trying to break away. I mean, we'd all be happy to see those morons go but there is absolutely no indication

In 1920 a whole lot of them voted to join Yugoslavia, but then the Austrian purges happened.

The South Carinthian municipality of Gallizien is cited as an example: according to the 1951 census the proportion of Slovene speakers was 80%, whereas in 1961—in absence of any significant migratory movements and with approximately the same population—the proportion dropped to only 11%.​

69% of the population, just gone and replaced with pod people!

One thing that has definitely come out of this is finding out just where British colonial attitudes have gone - namely right into the young British left.

For years I've generally accepted that even the daftest proposals from them came out of a genuine concern for the poor and working class, but its starting to look they were just more inclined into assimilating them.

Facebook has generally been filled with the one culture they seem to genuinely hate, that of the British Working Class. Now, yes, there are some despicable elements, but there are in every culture, doesn't mean you crush the whole.

They may as well stick on some pith helmets, and charge into concrete jungle housing estates and vast savannah of the British countryside to show those silly natives a bit of civilisation dontchaknow? Tally ho!

Well, given since you turned up 69% of WF posts read like a fucking pod persons, does this then mean the whole board can secede from the Retarded Republic of Drooling GTurned Fuckwittery?

And in the ha-ha-funny-not-funny stakes, it seems neither side actually had a plan for after a Leave vote

The one person who does a raft of plans for pretty much every eventuality was Richard North. Problem there is, give anyone who's met him the option of dealing with him again or having the whole UK slide into the maw of a starving saarlac, then after a few moment consideration Boba Fett could shortly expect a lot of company.

Labours finally imploding, the Corbyn experiment coming to its depressingly obvious conclusion as Labour voters turn their back to it to such an extent, even many of his allies are trying to get him to do the smart thing before they get wiped out in the oncoming General Election, having faced traditional Labour voters turning their backs on the party, they're worried. Instead he's replaced the exiting Shadow Cabinet Members with Yes Men. Which always works so well.

Try reading the wiki. The Euro-sceptic, anti-immigrant Carinthian Freedom Party got 44% in an election not long ago but dropped due to a bank scandal, a car crash that killed its leader, and some more scandals.

Here's the 1920 voting map. Green areas voted to join Yugoslavia.



Europe has a lot of areas that aren't very happy with the status quo.

@gul have we got discouragement switched on or something?

Well that would explain your problem. You can't access relevant information about any of the various groups that national politicians and MEPs have to deal with back home, however minor those movements might seem at present. Just look at Scotland. Did anyone in the 2000's think they would actually hold a referendum to split?

This is quite something. You admit in this post that the message was for Catalonia, and still maintain that Packard is wrong because he has said that the message was for Catalonia? Your humiliation is complete.

No, it's not. Lots of papers brought up what Spain said about Scotland's prior referendum as a guide to how they'd react to a renewed call for a Scottish split to stay in the EU. All the same logic applies. All the same interests apply, with the addition of EU countries trying to head off more Brexit referendums.

The simple logic is that if EU countries don't block Scotland, European nations will fragment as the EU comes apart. The European establishment isn't going to go out of their way to make that happen, as they would lose their cushy jobs.

Do you think gturner would be able to post a thousand times a day if we did?

Yes, it could certainly play out that way. That's not the discussion here. Dinner believes that an article he posted includes a definitive statement that Spain would block Scotland. The article contains no such statement. Everything else is about watching him spin and sputter.

I was actually hoping to start a thing, where people would occasionally quote the phrase in the hope it'd add an 's' to his inanity and so become insanity... I should be less lazy and try to organise things!

He doesn't need much help with insanity.

You two are just living in your own little fantasy world, aren't you?

Try reading The Economist or Foreign Policy magazine or something.

I read both, neither have much to do with your mania.

Of course they can. It's the logical consequence of 'we'd like you to stay': if you're in a nation that stays, stay with that nation; if you're in a nation that leaves, we'd like you to leave them and stay with us. In either case, we'd like you to stay with the EU.

That's bullshit; such a vote wouldn't effect the exit of Catalonia from Spain. You're confusing cause and effect.

I'm currently amused at his belief I'm disagreeing on his current bete noir. Apparently he hasn't the necessary brain power to differentiate between someone mocking his posts in general and whatever shit he's spouting currently.

dude, the FPÖ is a far right national party. they are not trying to split up austria, they'd rather like to build a wall around it. they are in every one of the nine states. they were strongest in carinthia (thus morons) before they 'lost' 20 billion in said banking scandal. but that's already forgotten and they can hope for 25 to 30 percent in national elections.

You're a moron. As with the Scots and Northern Irish, the people who you offer the opportunity to bail are the same people who get to decide the vote on whether the country they're trying to leave has to leave the EU. Please let your neurons rub together and communicate. It's not hard. Even the little midget on the Game of Thrones can do it.

Dig deeper. You're talking about the national FPO, which is a national right-wing Eurosceptic party. Dig into the Slovene branch which got much higher voter support than in Austria as a whole.

Does gtardo ever take a day off from WF?

You've been away a few days haven't you El Chup? I thought yesterday of sending you a personal message to see if you were okay. Good to see you back.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...shares-cosy-embrace-with-jean-claude-juncker/

Nigel Farage rubs it in the EU's face.

And erases every single bit of leverage we have for a strong negotiation with every flap of his Beaker-like mouth.