First Presidential debate thread

The Donald is going to debate the Dowager Empress of Chapaqua in about 24 hours (the debate starts at 9:00 PM Eastern).

If it has been Bernie we'd expect an hour of "millionaires and billionaires have rigged the system, and we have a rigged economy!"

If Romney had found any support for a coup at the convention we'd get "I agree with what she says, but I'll do it better!"

If Bush hadn't collapsed from low energy we'd get "But I can lead, because I'm a leader - who has led!"

If Rubio hadn't hit peak robot so early we'd get "But Obama knows exactly what he's doing!" Plus he'd burn five minutes on a long bio for anyone who didn't know Rubio's dad was a bartender from Cuba.

If Cruz had managed to rig more caucuses we'd get "The unholy one is leading this country with an army of the ungodly, selling our souls for mammon and worshiping at the altar of darkness!"

Instead, we'll get treated to fireworks from Trump and a bunch of non-indictable, highly parsable statements from Hillary, assuming she doesn't keel over or have a seizure.

ETA: It should stream live from Fox News and other sites.

No matter who wins we (America) lose.

We've already been losing for quite some years now, and losing badly. It's time for a major change.

If I were Donald Trump my go to line would be

"If you think we can do better than the last 8 years, hell the last 16 years then vote for me"

"If you are happy with the last 8 years vote for Hillary"

I hope the Secret Service has a replacement TV on hand for when GW Sr. throws his shoe at it again.

Personally, I'm a lot better off now than I was eight years ago. In fairness it probably has more to do with Bill Clinton than Obama.

Because you work in a rape crisis center?

Nope. WIA grant.

so imagine a scene where a car is rolling down a long hill without breaks. At the bottom it may or may not crash. The driver, who's been fearfully enduring this descent for a long time now decides that the situation needs a radical change.

So he steers the car over a nearby cliff to put an end to this slow downhill slide.

That's the equivilant of electing Trump.

that whole logic, though, requires the assumption that the "me" who said it actually CAN make a better go of it.

In EVERY election the voter wants to do even better than in the previous term, often it's foremost on their mind, but they still need to believe the person asking for their vote can do that.

Nate Silver reviews where the race stands before the - theoretical - turning point represented by the first debate:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...he-race-stands-heading-into-the-first-debate/

Much more detail, of course, at the link

I've got my popcorn and a case of beer, I'm ready.

Hillary will say something straightforward which will be perceived as elitist.
Trump will say something elitist which will be perceived as straight talk.

People who support Hillary will feel that she handily won the night.
People who support Trump will feel that he handily won the night.

The news media will continue to push this as a nail biter, highlighting the flaws in Hillary's responses, while admiring Trump for not literally slinging shit at people in the audience.
Hillary will be perceived as a politician openly seeking power. Trump will be perceived as Presidential.

Nothing of value will have been added that night.
I will be watching Andy Griffith reruns, because a debate between Trump and Clinton will only give me a headache.

Not just America.

Jesus, I mean, why aren't you up there running instead of Trump? You know exactly how to win!

Only among morons. There is nothing presidential about him. His arguments are poorly articulated and rely on little more than rhetoric and catchphrases. His policies are largely impractical and cannot be met. His huffing and puffing and what some regard as charisma are what he has. I think the only reason he'll do better than he deserves is because people hate Hillary.

So you will be watching Deputy Barney Fife give his stance on bud-nipping?

I don't have Trumps baggage. On the other hand I don't have his money either.

Giving Trump a 42 percent chance. That is really, really fucking disturbing.

And of course, given the unconventional nature of this election, the debate has the potential for real fireworks and to completely change the contest.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

In the past eight years I've bought a house, a car and seen my income increase by six figures despite Mexicans crossing the porous California border taking my jobs.

Thanks Obama!

Far and away my best years economically were the second Bush term.

When you get fired from every job that you have, your best years economically are just having a job.

If Trump tries to pull the "are you better off now than you were eight years ago" line, he'd better hope nobody is paying attention to gas prices, the unemployment rate, the stock market ...

^ That stuff sounds great in debate club. But in real life (in which actual voters will decide), things intrude like labor participation rates, real wage stagnation, lackluster economy and the non-recovery "recovery."

Shit's been good for the haves; it generally is, more or less. But consider the small % of americans worrying about 401ks?

[And, psst, crowing about inflated asset classes driven by unprecedented easy money policy with zero interest rates for eight years is myopic.]

However bad things are, they can get much worse. That line probably won't work for Hilary, but it would be nearer to the truth.

You've also become an official slimebag... I mean lawyer........

Big difference.

Instead of America's approximate avg of 3.5 GDP growth rates, under Obama we have dropped to growth rates more like Euroland (where under 2 per cent is good).

So good point, the US could actually fall to become worse than Euroland. But even under Hillary that shouldn't happen. [Unless of course the statist ass raises taxes again . . . ]

This, I think, is going to make this debate score pretty high ratings. It's like NASCAR . . . people will tune in hoping to see the crash.