Bah. the Jay's opponents in April played a collective .485 in April. That's not a dramatically soft schedule. Not tough, of course, but not super soft. However, the next 10 games (nine after tonight) ARE soft and so I fully expect that even with the pitching injuries we should welcome the Yankees on the 16th still playing at least .650 ball. In fact, there are only nine particularly hard games in May. the collective winning percentage in April of their May opponents is also slightly below .500 and very little different than the collective record of their April opponents (.491 for May) So don't be counting on them to be faded away by June 1. And of course, by June 1 Litsch, Romero, and Janssen will be filling out the rotation and their pitching will be even better. All that said: as April turns to May, the Jays not only have the best record in the AL, they have the best run differential by far (+34 compared to second-best Boston at +15...Detroit is +6); the most runs scored (by 12 over the next best team); the most doubles; the most total bases; the best BA, OBP, and OPS; the most hits; the most walks; a top 5 ERA; BAA and WHIP; and #1 in strikeouts (pitching). And that with a better staff of pitchers on the DL than a lot of teams (including the Tigers) have on their active roster. Keep on assuming they are going away. Like the Rays last year, they can only profit by not being taken seriously until August.
I'm only talking about April. YOU are one who was calling your team a champion, not me. Furthermore, I'm not the one resorting to blaming the opposition groundskeepers for the fact that my "ace" got his ass kicked by a sub-.500 team. Still, bottom line is all my comments are about what's happening NOW - YOU are the one ahead of yourself calling big things for your team.
Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, Texas... 2-1 over the White Sox 1-3 against the Royals You'll shore up some more W's against the Orioles and the Indians, but the Angels are tougher than you think and you'll face Chicago again, then the Yankees, and Boston in two series. Braves will have the home field advantage. I still say Boston takes the division, but maybe Toronto can get the wild card.
That said, of course the Tigers have their share of problems. Miguel Cabrera is in a slump, but just a small one compared to Magglio Ordonez's. Carlos Guillen is showing his age and continuously on the mend, Marcus Thames has a rib injury. Adam Everett isn't really much of a hitter. On the plus side, Josh Anderson gets to play more, and I really love his speed. Everett was on a streak, but that can't last. I've always valued Inge as a solid hitter who needed to work out his swing, and he's done it. Polanco will warm up, and so will Cabrera and Ordonez. As for pitching? I'm predicting Verlander will come out strong, though I'm pretty sure the Indians have always gotten the better of him. He's been having a number of solid games, derailed by one bad inning (which is partially Leyland's fault for not pulling him). Galarraga... He's a flyball pitcher, so that doesn't hurt in Comerica Park. He seems to be over thinking his game, and teams are more familiar with him this year. Edwin Jackson? He had the Rays helping him last year. Porcello's the new wunderkind, but his inexperience might get the best of him. Zach Miner... belongs in the bullpen. Brandon Lyon needs to get hot, Joel Zumaya might bring critical stability to the bullpen. Where does that leave them? Hitting will return with the summer heat, that much I'm sure of. Pitching remains a large question, but with the notable exception of the last three games, they've been pretty stellar. I just wonder what Jeremy Bonderman will bring back with him and if Dontrelle Willis is salvageable at all.
Sure, but I took the time to figure it out...collectively they were close to .500 in April and I'd say most of the teams in the AL (given that most teams are just a couple games one way or the other from .500) probably work out to some where within .015 of .500 - but according to my figures the Tigers DID have somewhat harder sched than that. Except they will be throwing two scrub pitchers and even though we get Weaver it's in a game vs. halladay o we have a shot even at that one. We usually suck against the NL, but we always play the yanks and Red Sox roughly even over the course of a season, even when it's otherwise not going good. My guess is that 15-16 wins in the rest of May won't be much of a stretch at all. that'd be something around 32-21 on June 1 if all goes reasonably well. I absolutely agree. I say on the Jays board all the time "Don't watch the Red Sox, they are the presumptive favorites. Watch the Yanks and Rays and the WC contenders in the other divisions" I'll be as shocked as anyone if the Jays win the division.
I almost feel sorry for Met fans, having to watch Oliver Perez take the mound every five days must be just unbearable.
He's hard to figure out. He's got great stuff but there's some kind of mental block that keeps him from getting it together for any length of time. Most people thought he was washed up back in '06 when the Pirates cut him loose (being cut by the Pirates is pretty much as low as you can sink in a big league career) but he went to the Mets and ended up helping them make the playoffs that year. I think he's got another comeback left in him but I don't know what he needs to do to make it happen.
Ewww. Just seeing the words "Estaban Loaiza" gave me a little shiver. That said, he's got nothing on the steaming pile of bad that is Jose Contreras. I went to my first Dodger game of the season on Saturday, and I'll say it right now: the Dodgers are going to the World Series.
Meh, you can't ever predict the playoffs. But they are looking beastly right now in terms of the regular season. Meanwhile, they are only a game or so better than my Jays and we didn't have a long winning streak to get here. I sure would like to have one though - especially with the Skankies coming to town next week.
http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1884 What an idiot, not only does he ruin his reputation he also potentially fucks his team's chance to just run away with the West.
I think once the 50 games are up and the numbers are crunched, Manny's suspension will only cost the Dodgers a couple of wins. That team is loaded from top to bottom, and the NL West is weak sauce. Who's next? A-Rod, perhaps? Oh, right. He's "injured."
I agree with you about the talent that the Dodgers have, but you can't base this opinion on just the personnel loss of the one player banned. Something like this is a huge mental kick in the nuts to the entire team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers go on a little bit of a losing streak and have a hard time getting it back together for a little bit. It's always hard to tell how these things are going to pan out. As a D'Backs fan, of course, I hope the Dodgers fail, but I am not naive about the quality of their players.
It'll hurt, sure. But the Dodgers are due to normalize anyway. There's no way they'll play this well at home the rest of the season, and they're only about a .500 team on the road right now. I think the suspension costs them three wins, maybe four.
I just read a piece on nbcsports that says losing Manny will probably cost the Dodgers 25-30 runs in offense and gain them 5 runs in defence, meaning they'll probably lose two wins.
And how many millions of dollars? They weren't just paying $25M for the bat. They were paying for ticket sales, manny merchandise, manny advertisements, mannywood (2 sections of the park renamed mannywood)...the whole marketing of the team is structured around him. I'M BAAACK billboards all around town. Crazy. All that is gonna come down fast.
The main point is that the division is so weak. Even if the Dodgers were a .500 team without Manny, they are already 13 games over and they'd have more than half the season to go when he came back. Also, I'm wondering if we can get some evidence on his claim that this was a prescription drug and not a PED. Most people who should know are shocked by this and are inclined to think maybe he's telling the truth.
In the mean time, maybe my boys will have the best record in baseball by Monday if the Dodgers reel a bit from the news.
Aaron Hill went deep again tonight. He's giving Kinsler a run for best AL second baseman. Get to beat up on a couple of sucky A's pitchers the next two nights too. then a chance to feast on the Yankees pen next week.
