Pennsylvania Election: Blue Wave Redux

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/pennsylvania/special-election/mar-13/

The blue wave should be something we see after it hits. Trying to declare it while it happens in micro detail is a flawed way of viewing what would be a macro event should it occur.

Reading up on the election the state is kinda dumb in how it does things.

The count tonight is unofficial. It doesn't include provisional, military and absentee ballots.

The official count is Friday.

Democrat will probably still win.

Trump won that district by 20 points so that things are this close means bad things for the Republicans.

This is to replace the abusive and staunchly anti-abortion Republican congressman who got caught trying to pressure his cheat-on into getting one, right?

That's how a lot of states tally votes. They only count absentee, military, and provisional ballots if the live ballots are within a certain margin.

Another reason your vote doesn't really matter!

A wave was building in Dec and early Jan but then between the tax cuts, State of the Union and relatively quiet WH both Trump's and the Generic Republican's fortunes seemed to be rebounding.

Just to go ahead and say this, but yeah, this is just one election in a district that won't exist in 8 months. So it is entirely possible to read too much. But some points anyway.

The Rs were forced to abandon their main messaging from the early part of the year (tax cuts and economy) halfway through Feb. Turns out the hype was bigger than the reality. Most people weren't seeing all that money they were supposed to be getting. In fact, public sentiment turned to the Dems on the tax cuts as most people thought it a tax giveaway to the super-rich. This should other Rs who hope to run on the tax cut a pause.

The real sign that this will be awa is to watch R retirements. You'll notice there was a lull when it looked like the Rs could be turning it around. With opinion on them souring the last few weeks, and last night's results this could restart those retirements. This is very important for a wave. They are self fulfilling propheies. If enough people think they will happen they likely happen. That's because no one likes to lose. Every incumbent that retires is another seat you have to double down to defend. Every doubling down spreads money and staff thinner and thinner. It also emboldens tr opposition, getting them more volunteers and money, which makes the likelihood of a wave increase, which makes vulnerable or even tossup Rs want to retire...

Primary season is well under way in most states now so it seems rather late in the game to expect retirement announcements.

That's a load of crap. Provisional ballots are the only ones that are used in that scenario. Absentee and military are counted the same as if you walked into the booth on election day. Once they are counted it becomes OFFICIAL.

Win or lose, it shouldn't have been this close in a district where Dems didn't even run in recent years.

Winter is coming, Republicans.

In an impressive piece of backpedaling, the Republicans who just a few days ago were shrieking about him being a far-left radical are now declaring that he won because he's basically a Republican.

Yesterday:
A vote for Lamb is a vote to impeach Trump.
A vote for Lamb is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.
A vote for Lamb is a vote for higher taxes.

Today:
He ran as a Republican.

Today two more Rs announced they were retiring. The districts are R+5 and R+6. 538's current average of generic ballot polling is D+9. The average vote shift in special elections since '16 is D+17.

This has all the signs of a building wave.