SARS II: Respiratory Boogaloo

For the little brains who keep on doing this I will make the numbers smaller so you can see what I am talking about.

Let us say you have 256 people, and you have an infection that doubles every two minutes. Now I am not putting a limit on that doubling which a natural infection would have at the moment.

So you start with 1 person, then you have 2 then 4...8.16.32.64.128.256.0.

That would be the progression of new infections for an exponential growth over time with a virus that has no limitations on effecting the populace. Now we know as time progresses certain factors start limiting that exponential growth. The people become further apart, perhaps they start covering their mouths, or they distance themselves from each other. This is a way that slows the exponential growth of the virus over time. If you consider the virus has to be physically transferred it goes to say that when it goes from 64-128 some of those particles might not come in contact with a new person. So the rate of an infection does have a peak.

The problem with the chicken littles is they fail to take the peak and increasing difficulty of the virus to find a new host into account. So now we have to have a second run of numbers.

Let us again assume 256 people in this universe, but let us say the previous numbers represent the spread of the virus with social distancing precautions taken. Let us say without social distancing the virus spreads by a factor of three.

So you start with one person, then you have three people, then 9...36.108.324.972.2916....8748

OMG without social distancing the spread of the virus was 34 times more than with it. Of course, if you look at the set of numbers everyone already had it long before we reached 34 times.

34 seems pretty close to thirty five. Did I happen to actually stumble on the real numerical problem with the 35 times claim @Man Afraid of his Shoes and his dumb ass study made just by accident? Look at me go with my big brain.

I did the math with a fairly simplified example. I think it is a matter of cognitive reasoning that certain people do not have even though they might be decent at things like math. It is the difference between knowing how to do an equation and having an understand of how the numbers apply to reality. I have to admit I suffer a little on how to put the equations together myself.

How is this not terrorism?

White.

And Donnie-boy luvs 'em.

He says they are good people.

I wonder what happens if they show up to one of his rallies like that.

Definitely starts out in the right place, and even though it links to a list of studies including the debunked Santa Clara and LA studies, he seems to ignore those results (unlike the page he links to, which is both a good and bad sign). Doesn't actually explain where he gets a 10-20x undercount though. He's right about universal masking and maintaining social distancing. Unlike certain people in this thread, he acknowledges that any business that inherently can't maintain distancing: bars, cruise ships, arcades, hairdressers, nail salons, etc. will have to remain closed.

I'm sure we'll get something making it in at some point, but as of today we are down to zero active cases here in SA.

For fucks sake, some places sent in the National Guard on unarmed Black Lives Matter protesters.

Here's a good article that explains the doubts and apprehension some people are having about the pandemic:

Mixed messages, frustration with lockdowns fuel some skepticism about pandemic

Essentially, there are four reasons why certain people are skeptics about the current state of affairs:

- Mounting frustration as shutdowns continue;
- The breakdown of trust in government over issues such as changes in mask policy;
- A resistance to being told what to do;
- Gaps in a skill psychologists call cognitive sophistication, which helps people discern what's true or false.

"Gaps in cognitive sophistication"



In other words, you're fucking stupid.

Looks like I have a new adjective for our favourite posters here at WF! (I'm looking at you, Zombie, Max Rebo and Federal Fuckup.)

That's not a cognitively sophisticated way of putting it.

"Gaps in cognitive sophistication"



In other words, you're fucking stupid.

Looks like I have a new adjective for our favourite posters here at WF! (I'm looking at you, Zombie, Max Rebo and Federal Fuckup.)[/quote]

hmm....and in your humble opinion do you feel that you yourself are not exempt from lacking in cognitive sophistication?

Says the cognitively unsophisticated buffoon who can't even use quote tags properly.

FTFY

This has been a thing for a very long time. The pandemic has just amplified the hell out of it.

Says the cognitively unsophisticated buffoon who can't spell buffoon properly. Ya gonna blame it on the metric system?

Oh I see shooter fixed your spelling for you. Nice of him to help out the cognitively unsophisticated!

No idea what you're talking about.

I didn't fix anything, you mental defective.

"Edit" is another board tool available to all posters, but apparently it's as mysterious to you as actually being able to use the quote function.

Well, in an unprecedented move, prestigious UK medical journal The Lancet says the best move for America is Dump Trump...

FTFY

While I agree with them, it didn't take a pandemic or a prestigious UK medical journal to figure that out...

Oh you caught your mistake - I thought shooter corrected it for you when he changed your disparaging remark to be even more disparaging. But shooter's right...I struggle with something that most people don't, thus he considers me a mental defective. Whatever!
No doubt Neil deGrasse Tyson has him on speed dial for when he needs advice from a fellow genius.

to be honest I don't believe too many people think it's a "fake crisis" as much as they believe that it's being treated as more of a crisis than it needs to be.

A FB friend posted this:



My reply:

That said, I am skeptical that this is actually real.