The 2024 Presidential Primary Election thread

Actually, there were murmurings that Bill had secretly traveled to Moscow and was a Soviet agent.

Oh my sweet summer child (Is there an :oldnan: smilie? If not, can there be?)

Before Obamacare, there was Hillarycare, and for that among other things, the Right dropped the socialist/communist labels quite a bit.

President Donald Trump is the favored Republican candidate for a 2024 run, beating other notable Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence, by a double-digit margin, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday.

Trump gets 53 percent of support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents for a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary, according to the poll of registered voters. Pence came in second at only 12 percent support. Donald Trump Jr. got the third-highest support at 8 percent, while other Republican figures, including Sens. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, and Nikki Haley each got less than 5 percent support.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/poll-republicans-support-trump-2024-439757

hmmm......I'm not really taking a lot of stock in polling accuracy these days!

You mean the polls that never failed to have Biden at least tied for the lead among Democrats for the entire year while everyone assumed he'd eventually fall apart - and then he won the nomination?
or the polls that had Biden ahead of Trump in every head to head match all year long (except for a couple of lunatic Republican outfits) - and who then kicked Trump's ass?

THOSE polls?

In fairness, the meaningfulness of a poll like this, in the absence of about two years of factors that might influence who might want to run and what might make those people attractive or repulsive as candidates, makes it worth roughly jack.

Trump at 74 is proud of being able to hit person, woman, man, camera, TV in cognitive tests. God knows if he is going to have to be propped up like John Gill four years from now.

yes the polls that had Biden many points ahead of Trump but the election turned out to be razor-thin in most states. But as you know if you win a state by one vote you get all the electoral votes.
Maybe you missed the very public mockery of the pollsters from both the left and the right.

Factually wrong on several levels:

1) The average of the polls had Biden up 7% going into election day. I believe his final advantage was something between 5% and 6%. That's not all that far off.

2) As for "razor-thin", that also is simply 1984 double-speak. There wasn't a single state where the margin was a few hundred votes, as it was in Florida in 2000. The very closest was Georgia, with a difference of over 12,000 votes. And in an election with 50 different states, there are always some that are fairly close.

3) Even if we substitute "fairly close" for "razor-thin" (which would be more correct), that still wasn't the case in "most" states. Do you actually know how many states had a final tally that was within 2% either way? Hint: It isn't even close to 25 (which is the cut-off line to make it "most"). And 2% doesn't even come close to "razor-thin".

unfortunately, she'll only be turning 35 that year during the campaign.
I'd like to see her after 2028 as SoS or as the running mate/heir apparent to the second Harris term... build that international profile for herself and rebuild America's place in the international community.

I seem to recall way back when he was announced Biden saying he'd not seek a second term if elected to this one... and frankly Bernie should sit back and enjoy his golden years too.

Bernie will never slow down, but he's accomplishing more at the grassroots level than he would stuck in the Oval Office.

It seems to me that the Constitution only requires the president to be 35 at the time of assuming office. There is nothing about needing to be 35 while running. Hypothetically, it would take a SCOTUS decision to be the final word, and I'm not sure if the current SCOTUS would be radical enough to depart from the plain text of the Constitution to say that AOC is ineligible to run until she has turned 35 if she wold be 35 by the time she might assume the office.

I could legitimately see AOC getting fed up with politics and carving a new life for herself, sticking to the House of Representatives, or seeking higher office in roughly equal measures from what relatively little I know about her. I don't know if she has the drive or the ego to want to be president in the same way most of the modern candidates have.

I don't know if Biden has ever ruled out running for a second term. It's just been an assumption that he would since he is already the oldest person to be elected to the office, and he would be 82 if he won the office in 2024.

Kind of like the old guy driving an El Dorado 10 below the speed limit in the fast lane.

30 years ago I danced at the front of demonstrations. Now I'm on the flanks of a meat shield line with a first aid kit.

All great leadership relies on the sagacity of those who came before.
But those sages have to be wise enough to step aside.

One BIG difference is that Trump caught everyone by surprise in the 2016 cycle. He won't be able to catch everyone with their pants down a second time. Not saying he can't win. Sadly, he does represent a large minority of Americans. The BIGGEST issue is his health. After 70 things have a way of going downhill fast.

THis and a few other articles early on re: Biden.

This animation is why I think she's got the drive/ambition to stick around till her ride comes to a complete stop... although yeah, definitely a different type of ego.

As to Biden, first, the story you linked to has aides commenting anonymously that Biden is suggesting to them that he'd only serve one term. That is different from Biden personally announcing he was only going to serve one term. The article has him publicly doing a wait-and-see dance. Even among what the aides are conveying in that story, they aren't generally straight up saying that Biden is only going to serve one term, let alone that Biden is telling them that he'd only serve one term.

But second, as the story suggested, they were likely making such statements to address concerns from younger and more progressive voters that Biden being elected would mean the soonest a progressive presidential candidate might be in the mix is 2032.

His sister is saying that Biden would run again in 2024.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...r-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html

Again, that could be wishful thinking on Sis's part. We'll see.

Incidentally, here is an article about betting favorites for 2024. As of the time of the article, Biden looked to be fourth most likely to win, after Kamala Harris, and a tie between Mike Pence and Nikki Haley:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/joe-bidens-odds-win-second-term-2024-getting-worse/

As to AOC, the thing is she may find that there are a lot more rewarding, easier, and less threatening ways to make a difference than Congress. At some point, I would think the constant hate and scrutiny would get old.

In the aftermath of the 2016 election the earliest polls had Biden and Bernie as the two most popular Dem picks for 2020.

There is nothing that suggests that is representative or meaningful that they indeed turned out to be the most popular. It could have turned out that Hillary had the hubris to run again. Or it could have been that Biden opted to stay out of public life, or that either he or Bernie died or was not in a place healthwise to run again. It could be that a charismatic person came out of nowhere.

I've got a lot of quatloos that say that whoever was predicted in 2012 to be the 2016 Republican nominee, the most popular choices didn't include Trump or Ted Cruz, that whoever was predicted in 2004 to be the 2008 Democratic nominee for 2008 didn't include Barack Obama...indeed, that generally the predictions for who is likely to be a candidate four years out in open races doesn't include the actual nominee.

If Biden let it be known (directly or indirectly) that he was only going to serve one term he would at that moment become a lame-duck. He has nothing to gain at this moment by making a commitment either way. The smart course is to make it clear that his immediate concern is getting ready to take over the presidency and clean up Trump's mess. He didn't get where is by doing dumb things like that.

He had something to gain by hinting that he might only do one term.

As I said, there's a population on the left that is of the mindset that Biden's election would mean another 8 years minimum of centrist Democrats as the presidential candidate and possibly at least 12.

Scenario 1: Biden serves his 4 years and runs again as the incumbent in 2024. Whether he wins or loses in 2024, VP Harris would be the presumptive favorite in 2028. Which likely means 2032 is the soonest in this scenario a progressive could headline the ticket.

Scenario 2: Biden resigns or dies with less than two years served. Harris runs in 2024 as the incumbent. Either way she would be ineligible to run again in 2028 since presidents are limited to 10 years in office. So I stand corrected in my earlier post. A progressive could be potentially nominated by the Democrats for 2024 in this narrow circumstance.

Scenario 3: Biden resigns or dies having served two years or more of his term. Harris runs in 2024 as the incumbent. She loses. Depending on the nature of her loss, she runs again in 2028. Or the Democrats decide that the reason she lost was because she was too liberal and an even more centrist person wins the 2028 primary.

The people on the Left might think that there's no real difference between four more years of Trump and 4-8 years of Democratic centrism, that it would be better to have Trump do whatever he might do in with another four years and then have people finally see the light as to how much better we'd be under progressive government.

There are also people who might just think, hey, 78 is pretty friggin' old, and I don't want that guy to be holding on to the nuclear football when he's dribbling in his Depends.

There are also people who are annoyed or worse that we had to choose another old white guy to go up against Trump as more "electable" rather than any number of other candidates who might be better on policy or personality or any number of other grounds.

Hinting that he's going to be a "transitional" president is a way to balance the need to avoid looking like a lame duck while appealing to the above groups.

Nice argument, counselor, but this court ain't buying. Feel free to appeal.

Nationally, 8.4% and 4.6% (by the time all the counts are certified), respectively. And the state polls were worse.

true some states weren't "fairly close" but those were for the most part solid red or blue states that are rarely very close in any election. Only about a dozen states really mattered as far as winning or losing an election due to the electoral college system. If Biden/the Democrats FUBAR it up like I think they will (indications are trending that way) the backlash will ensure a Republican victory from the top to the bottom of the ballot. Stranger things have happened, like Biden losing both Ohio and Florida but winning the election! Biden is right up there with JFK in awesome, inspiring, undeniable natural leadership ability! Hopefully Harris is too since she'll be HMIC sooner versus later.

Which indications are they?

Trump did attract new voters in 2020, but Biden attracted even more new voters. Trump’s new voters tended to be the literal dregs of society. People who are peripherally attached to employment, voting, and reality. If Trump can continue to mine voters from those dark red counties he could have a shot in 2024. Otherwise us coastal elites will prevail again.

IMHO I think (I can't prove it) that Biden didn't attract new Biden voters as much as he attracted new voters that hated Trump and wanted him gone. Has there ever been a president more despised? I certainly can't remember one, but with so many media outlets (including social media) everyone's opinions are blasted out 24/7 so maybe it just seems like Trump is astoundingly, universally hated.
That said I feel that Trump will be too old in 2024. He could likely end up as doddering as he claims that Biden is. * Plenty of younger talent in the Republican party and I can't see any valid reason for Trump to run again. If the Democrats wanted to rerun Obama it would be their right, and he could likely win. He's still very much "in the game" behind the scenes but to what level I don't know.

* maybe it's just me but Biden seems a lot more coherent lately. The only odd/questionable gaffe I've noticed is the "I'll develop a disease" comment that was (I imagine) a poorly framed joke of sorts.
It was one of the most awkward, surreal moments I've seen in quite some time. I thought Harris' head was going to explode! Please tell me this wasn't on a teleprompter because if it was,
someone was asleep at the switch.

In addition to what you said, Republican voters will feel less threatened by four years of a (D) than by a possible 8 years of a (D). So yes, it's to Biden's advantage to have hints out there that he might not seek a second term.

I doubt you'll get much argument on this board about that.

Politics is all about leverage. Once you're a lame duck, it's gone, as Trump is finding out. The idea that Biden would get more accomplished by giving up the leverage he has strikes me as illogical.