http://www.joystiq.com/2011/11/04/experts-on-nintendos-immediate-future-post-losses/ An interesting article on Nintendo's rise and possible fall... I think, eventually, they will have to exit the hardware business. The big question is when. Everone was predicting doom for Nintendo during the GameCube years (even though they were apparently still profitable) and yet Nintendo came back with two of the best selling video game systems ever... the Wii and the DS. But they made some critical mistakes with the 3DS and I don't think they can ever regain their preeminent position in portable gaming. And this has much to do with the iPhone and smartphones in general. I predict the 3DS will be their last portable gaming system. Not sure about the Wii U. We will have to see what they bring to the table. They don't have the resources to compete with Microsoft and Sony when it comes to hardware. On the other hand, they have a huge catalog of high profile franchises, brilliant game designers, and creative game designs. I don't think Nintendo will go away as a company, but I do think they are nearly done with the hardware business. But is that really a bad thing for them? If they're not constantly focusing on hardware development and marketing, they can refocus all their efforts on pumping out amazing games for other systems like the XBox, Playstation, Apple products, etc. They could still be the biggest gaming company in the world, and they have far more assets than Sega or Atari ever did... Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid, Pokemon, Donkey Kong, Star Fox, Kirby, Smash Bros, Fire Emblem, Pikmin, Punch-Out, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Nintendogs, Brain Age, Animal Crossing, Excitebike, PilotWings... That's an impressive set of intellectual properties...
Breaks my heart... but I'd love to play Epic Mickey on my PS3 one day and Super Mario Bros. on my iPhone!!
The thing that is really pissing me off about Nintendo is that they sometimes make some really clueless business decisions. They claim they want to attract more of a hardcore audience going forwards. If that is the case, then why are they refusing to release Xenoblade Chronicles (a hardcore RPG for the Wii) in North America? It shouldn't cost them anything to bring the game over here. It has already been translated and released in European markets. And it is one of the highest rated games for the system. It has an aggregate score of 93% on both Gamerankings and Metacritic! And it isn't like Wii owners have many other games to look forward to other than Zelda. They are pissing off their own hardcore fans for no reason. These are the same fans who they are counting on to buy their new systems. The fans even organized a campaign to get the game brought over to North America and Nintendo still won't do it. And they are just encouraging folks to pirate the game or hack their systems so they can play the import. Their stupid decisions boggle the mind sometimes. Why release 3DS with no killer pack-in game? Why such a high price point? Why only one analog stick? Why release a new version of the DS at almost the same time? I'm gonna enjoy the next Legend Of Zelda game... initial reviews are calling it the best Zelda game ever and the first game to really take advantage of Wii motion controls. I have no doubt it will be one of the best games of the year. But after that I'm done with Nintendo...
Nintendo could get right back into the black if they started manufacturing smart phones. The Nintendo DS Lite already has an operating system that can do a majority of what phones do. If they turned a DS like device into a smart phone, packaged it with a Mario or Pokemon game, and it came at a pricepoint of around $200 WITHOUT having to bundle it with a contract, they would clean the fuck up, and probably have Apple shitting in their pants. Imagine being able to play roms of Chrono Trigger, Super Mario World, and Zelda 64 on your phone? Ballz! One thing that is making me not take cell phone games seriously is that touch screen just don't translate well to many of the vintage games I grew up with. We need phone manufacturers to start making phones with at least passable analog sticks and responsive buttons. No more gaming on this touch screen bullshit. It's ok with a stylus pen, but without one, it's nearly an abomination.
No shit, I go in to the TOC last night for the daily briefing and while we're waiting for it to kick off I look over at the Specialist on guard and see he is playing a ROM on his laptop. Even with it paused, and only one image on the black screen I recognize the shield guys from the dungeon. "Chrono Trigger." From across the room, "That's a bad ass game." Another guy "I've got it on my laptop as well." Also in the little MWR room we have on this camp, there's a 64. Someone is always on it playing either Goldeneye, Zelda or MarioKart.
Both Nintendo and Sony are well equipped to enter the smartphone market and do well with the catalog of games they have. The problem is that only Sony seems to be making moves in this direction. They acquired Erricson earlier last quarter and they are releasing the 3G Playstation Vita in February. Hell, all they have to do is add a microphone and the PSV is a phone pretty much. The Vita will launch with its version of an app store and many of the games available on iOS and close to three dozen premium games. I don't know how well it will do in the smartphone era, but if they can get a carrier to subsidize it, they could draw in a lot of people.
The problem, at large, about Sony putting all their PSP games on their phones is, who is gonna buy them for $40 each? I know I wouldn't, unless it was a game I really liked. This also goes for Nintendo DS games. When I buy portable games, they are for a few minutes of playing here and there. When I'm in line, shopping for Christmas presents, and the line is 20 people deep, I'll turn on my Ipod and play a bit of pinball and chess. I'll play it while waiting for my gf when she tries on various clothes. And I'll play it when my buddies and I go on a road trip and I ain't driving. To me, I consider phone games very casual games, and I'm not going to pay $40 or even $20 for a game I would play maybe a total of a few hours before I got bored of it and want to play something else. I want something that I can turn off and on and continue from where I left off, and I want a game system that won't take a minute to start up the splash screen and show me five game studio logos before I get to the loading screen. At a $20 to $40 price point, I think it's going to be difficult for video game studios to compete with the $1 games you can get for your ipod or android device.
There certainly is something to be said about that. The PSV looks like it will make room for both experiences and everything inbetween. The Uncharted Golden Abyss gameplay looks amazing but I find myself asking if I want an experience like that while I'm on the go or would I rather experience it while I'm in my living room on the couch in front of a big ass TV. I expect that Sony will find out very soon the market has drastically changed in the last few years. Unless I'm on a serious road trip/flight or something, I'd rather have a disposable small game than a big dramatic Uncharted experience.
Yeah, there certainly is something to be said about travel games. I'd definitely take a PSP on a 12 hour flight, because I'm not going to play chess for 12 hours vs. the computer. There are different markets for different types of gamers, but it seems, unless you are Blizzard, Activision, Bethesda, EA, Square-Enix, or Rock Star, game companies are foregoing development of the massive 'must have' game and trying to take a chunk of pie out of the casual game market. Even Square-Enix has recently moved into the casual game market, last year releasing that chocobo game and final fantasy clone for Facebook. (I was not impressed with either one. )
It's not as simple as saying "higher console install base =higher game sales" Those who would want to play Nintendo franchises will buy Nintendo hardware. By keeping their games on their own console, Nintendo keeps a much higher percentage of the sales price, not having to pay licensing fees. Present a business model for how many copies you think Mario would sell as a multiplatform game, and how much you think revenue would increase taking into account the licensing fees that would have to be paid. Also you would likely see Sega syndrome, where going multiplatform caused a major morale loss to teams with creative designers jumping ship.
And why would Nintendo stop making consoles? At the moment they have had one unprofitable period, and that is due to a perfect storm combination of the end of a console generation for them (with the Wii reaching the end of its lifespan) the launch of a new handheld, and intensive R&D on a new high tech console combined with the international exchange rate seriously hurting them. Or do you seriously expect the WiiU to be less successful than the freaking GameCube?
Oh, it's possible in theory, just see it as being especially likely in the near future. Atari had a few successful years, Sega had one hit console where they made profits for a short period. I think it is far more likely Sony would drop out of the console space than Nintendo.
Hmm. I don't know. I think the 3DS will do okay business, but I don't see how it can possibly replicate the success of the DS. Wii U... We'll just have to see what it can do. From what I've seen, there is some potential, but I don't if 3rd party companies will see it that way. Or hardcore gamers. Or even the casual Wii audiences. They need to change the name of the system! Awful, awful name.
Nintendo is trying TI thread a fine needle with the Wii U. It is a little more powerful than the 360 & PS3. Will it retail for $199 on launch since its so antiquated? Will it matter since it will work in 1080P? I think MSFT and Sony will remain major players in gaming and Nintendo will bite it.
We don't know the WiiU specs yet, the Wii proved that raw power isn't what is important to the mass market though and as we plunge further into the realm of incremental improvements that will become more and more the case. The only way Nintendo leaves the console space is if it becomes unprofitable for them, and I don't see that happening for a long long time yet.
They did, which I addressed earlier a few posts ago. If that becomes a regular thing then they are in trouble, but I'm not seeing anything to indicate it is anything other than a short bump.
I hope they don't stop making hardware. The last "new" system I owned on the Nintendo side was the Gamecube, and I loved it. Sure, it was lacking in Mario titles, but if I want that, I can always play on my Super, which is still my favorite system. Someone could offer to trade me their XBOX 360 for my Super Nintendo, and I'd do it. Then I'd go out and buy another Super Nintendo. What do you think I am? Stupid? Still, it would be a shame to see Nintendo getting out of the hardware biz, so I hope this drop is temporary.
Another way Nintendo could be back in the black: For their next hardware release, call it the Super Duper Nintendo, and market it as the "spiritual successor to the Super Nintendo". And release ALL the most popular games that the SNES had, but with all updated graphics. Can you imagine how awesome it would be to play Chrono Trigger, Super Mario World, Rogue Squadron, Final Fantasy 6, and all those other great games with updated graphics?
