The Sixth (!) Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread

Four whores and seven jeers ago, Wordforge brought onto this earth ... nah, that isn't gonna work, so fuck it.



The Sixth Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread!

To enter, just answer each of the following questions:

• How many electors will end up pledged to Joe Biden and Donald Trump? (Note: this question is phrased this way to make faithless electors irrelevant to the outcome.)
• How many seats will each party control in the Senate?
• How many seats will each party control in the House?
• Tiebreaker: What percentage of the vote will be won by the sentient manbun trying to unseat Nancy Pelosi?

The rules:

• You must make your predictions by 7 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 3. You may change your prediction at any time up until then, but please make a new post to make sure I see it.
• Some mathematical jiggery-pokery will be done to make all three sections of the contest (President, Senate and House) equal in value to each other. The best possible score is 0.
• Any independents will count toward the total of the party with which they caucus.

Past threads:

• 2018 contest and winners
• 2016 contest and winners
• 2014 contest and winners
• 2012 contest and winners
• 2012 Iowa caucus edition contest and winners
• 2010 contest and winners

And here is a recap of past winners ...



Place your bets ... now!

Now I’m curious... who were the worst prognosticators each year?

1) How many electors will end up pledged to Joe Biden and Donald Trump? (Note: this question is phrased this way to make faithless electors irrelevant to the outcome.)

Biden 346
Trump 192

2) How many seats will each party control in the Senate?

Dems 53
Rs 47

3) How many seats will each party control in the House?

Dems 240
Rs 195

4) Tiebreaker: What percentage of the vote will be won by the sentient manbun trying to unseat Nancy Pelosi?

20%

This time, it'll be me.

Electoral votes: Teh Baba gets them all.
Senate seats: Teh Baba gets them all.
House: Teh Baba
Tiebreaker: Wait for it... Teh Baba.

I just want to make a side bet: Biden wins landslide-ish, Trump resigns shortly after election so President Pence can pardon him, peaceful transition aside from rioting Trumpetors and militias declaring war because the police politely asking people to stop rioting is tyranny when it's their side rioting.

1) How many electors will end up pledged to Joe Biden and Donald Trump? (Note: this question is phrased this way to make faithless electors irrelevant to the outcome.)

Biden 352
Trump 186

2) How many seats will each party control in the Senate?

Dems 51
Rs 49

3) How many seats will each party control in the House?

Dems 238
Rs 197

4) Tiebreaker: What percentage of the vote will be won by the sentient manbun trying to unseat Nancy Pelosi?

15%

Detroit.

Biden 319
Trump 218

Should be way higher for Biden, but this is one of the most corrupt elections of all time.

Dems 52
GOP 48

Dems 235
GOP 200

Buttar gets 16%

Biden 352
Trump 186

Senate: 52D-47R, 1 TBD in Georgia
House: 239D-196R

Buttar: 24%

Seriously, after 2016 and the debacle of the last four years, all I'm predicting is Biden wins and the Dems have both the House and Senate. Numbers are out of my grasp. But I'm hoping and praying for a clear cut landslide victory to beat the Trumpistas over the head with.

The first and only time Dayton3 ever won something, that sure takes me back

I'm hoping for that as well, but even though the numbers indicate it should be a landslide victory, I think we'll see it be closer than anticipated just due to the monumental level of cheating going on among the GOP.

Under the current state administrations, who expects valid numbers to come out of GA, FL or TX?

I hope I'm wrong and it's a truly monumental asskicking, but evil is gonna evil.

Electors: 312 Biden / 226
Senate: 50 / 50
House: 238 D / 197
Buttar: 25%

Do you want to put in a guess on the eventual Georgia outcome? (If a lot of people have similar guesses, I'm already assuming we won't have a winner until after the Georgia runoff is done.)

Tough one... I'll say it ends up 52D-48R when the dust settles in January.

In all honesty, I don't think there will be an election, and even if there is, there won't be a peaceful and/or timely transfer of power. That's my pick for this election, and I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong.

But if I had to guess, Biden wins with 420 electoral votes, and the Democrats retake the Senate with 69 senators. The House gains 13 Democratic representatives.

Gain from what? There are 5 vacancies.

Exactly.

So, the opposite of my side bet then?

If Trump loses, he's got three options: 1) Spend the rest of his life in court and possibly prison, 2) weasel his way out of spending the rest of his life in court and possibly prison, or 3) go full dictator.

Trump... is definitely full of shit, and trying to convince others to believe his bullshit seems to be a hobby of his, but he doesn't seem delusional to the point where he buys into his own bullshit. If he loses, I think he'll do whatever he can to cover his own ass, which means option two; stepping down, getting a pardon from President Pence, and spending the rest of his life at the golf course. While going full dictator most likely appeals to him, it's a big risk and I think he realizes that. He'll definitely challenge the results if Biden wins, and wait until the last possible minute to resign, but I don't think he'll need to be forcibly removed.

I mean, I won't be surprised if he tries to go full dictator, but if he has a choice between saving himself and giving into his ego, I think he'll choose self-preservation.

Either Trump tries to go out as a dictator or he goes out like Hitler when he loses.

Trump won't go dictator because he hasn't done the work to build up a system loyal to him.

I think you may be underestimating the extent of his psychological issues. There may be a portion of his bullshit that he doesn't actually buy into -- for instance, despite his public embrace of the evangelical right, I think it's unlikely that he has developed any actual, sincere religious belief -- but the "I'm the greatest, I'm the biggest man ever, tough guys come up to me with tears in their eyes and call me 'sir,' I made America great again" bullshit? I suspect his pathological need for that is so great that he really has deluded himself into believing it.

The question is, does Pence have any motivation to agree to this plan?

First, despite his obsequious toadying in public, Pence probably does not actually like Trump.

Second, with Nixon and Ford, everyone thought that they'd made a deal, and Ford had agreed to it in advance in order to become president. (We now know this likely was not the case, and in fact Ford probably never had any real desire to be president, but it was widely believed at the time.) But Ford had a two-year administration and a shot at getting elected in 1976. Even though Pence probably wants to be president, the idea of being a one- or two-month lame duck probably holds no appeal for him.

Third, after the election, I suspect Trump's popularity will crater. For most of his administration he's had a solid 40 percent floor below which he rarely drops, but that probably includes a lot of Republicans whose thought process is "well, I don't really like him, but he's our guy and I hate the Democrats more." If he loses, the thought process will become "he's the asshole who cost us the presidency and the House and the Senate and a bunch of state legislatures in a redistricting year." He'll still have the MAGA cult, but a bunch of the people who were only with him for expediency will start dropping away. This makes it questionable whether pardoning him would do anything good for Pence's future ambitions. Pence is conniving, and he will probably figure that he's better off just quietly finishing his term as vice president and then spending the next few yers reinventing himself.

Could he, would he, go an hero?

when I make a projection - on 11/2 - I will do so based on the data and what SHOULD happen. No way to factor in how much the certain chicanery will shift the final totals, though I suspect that the voting population is so on to their bullshit this year that it will be less effective than it has been in the past (looking at you, in particular, Georgia) but it might have an effect on a very close state like, say, Ohio.
I just don't know how to project the effect so I'll play it straight.

I predict that no matter who wins, it will be a total shit show for the next several months.

Clearly, I have won the contest. What's my prize?

Teh Baba.

if we're watching for a relatively early result election night, some safe assumptions apply:

At this point it's safe to assume that Trump is not flipping any Clinton EC votes so Biden starts with a baseline of 232 (and none of those divergent fools this time)
It's apparently a given that Michigan will flip, Biden's trending double digit leads there, that makes 248 and leaves him needing 22.
Florida has 29 and processes early votes early so, baring an extremely tight race (which they are known for!) if it is called decisively for Biden on election night then Trump's "Red Mirage" strategy fails (not that they won't still pursue a lot of tedious court battles)

As has been noted, Trump needs to be crushed, not just edged out, but an election night 270+ would still be an important accomplishment.

That's far from a given. 538 gives him a 25% chance of flipping at least one Clinton state.

I would be surprised if Trump won Michigan. Our governor has a pretty strong approval rating, and he's found himself at odds with her repeatedly.