SARS II: Respiratory Boogaloo

IIRC, they're entering the first phases now, or they're getting volunteers to start the trials.

The big concern is that the mutation they've discovered in South Africa might not be blocked by the vaccine.

I’m sure that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines can be tweaked in a matter of days. But they’ll probably have to go through the full battery of tests before distribution, by which time there will be another mutation.

Out of curiosity, what kind of testing does the annual flu vaccine receive? I thought the flu vaccine was generally whipped up on the fly and then sent out.

I imagine once we prove that the general COVID19 vaccine template is valid, it wouldn't be a simple administrative matter to make tweaks for new mutations.

The annual flu vaccine has a longer lead time and actually involves a lot of guesswork. The areas where the flu virus tends to originate are all closely monitored by various health agencies (WHO, CDC, etc.) and they pick three strains that they think are likely to spread outside of those areas and then build a vaccine around them. IIRC, that process takes about a year, and if they guess wrong, then it means the flu shots that have been produced are largely worthless since few people have the particular strains they're targetted against. I believe that the testing protocols for the vaccines are somewhat reduced since the nature and process of making them is so well-known by this point in time. Remember, one of the big issues that we had with these vaccines is that nobody knew if they'd even work. We also didn't know if they would cause unexpected problems in people since nobody had ever made vaccines like this before. (Seriously, this wasn't like taking a car and dropping a new engine in it, this was like Henry Ford switching to the assembly-line method to build Model-Ts.)

I have a very specific question/concern about the "two shot" protocol. I'm not sure which of the vaccines it is, but there is a very narrow window to get the second shot. In other words let's say the shots must be given 21 days apart plus or minus two days. Easy-peasy in theory, but weekends, sudden illness, bad weather, insufficient quantities, etc. etc. can make that window very narrow indeed.
Murphy's Law and all that. Granted if wherever you get your first shot (your corner Walgreens) will keep that second shot on the premises (the same corner Walgreens) and properly refrigerated there might not be many problems. I'm just concerned that if somebody lives in a rural area with not many places to get the shot, and in 21 days the second shot is MIA what will they do?

For example when I got my shingles vaccine and it was time for my second shot the vaccine wasn't available PERIOD anywhere in my area. Luckily the window between shots was pretty wide and before the window closed the vaccine was finally released. I'm not saying that this will be the case, but the amount of people getting shingles is far, far less than the many millions getting one of the COVID vaccines. I think I'm making myself clear here. Can somebody help me out here?

The window concerns maximum effectiveness of the vaccine. So someone who gets the shot outside of that window will not be able to mount as effective of an immune response as someone who gets the shot within that window. Not ideal, but even if they contract the virus, it means that they won’t be as sick as they would have been if they hadn’t gotten the vaccine.

I just want to know when, and what kind of super powers I'll get after I'm vaccinated.

Look at it this way: If you get COVID, you may lose one of your superpowers.

from what I've been told it depends on whether or not there's a full moon.

How the fuck did this asshole earn a pharmacist's degree without understanding basic biochemistry?

Fake news, oxygen is all around us. Just open a window or crank the AC on the way to the hospital!

That's a reasonable concern. I think everyone shares it. To me the wild card is that the mRNA method is completely different to the regular flu vaccine process. Whether that will mean it's easier or harder to adjust as this virus mutates, I really don't know. I also wonder if scientists have any idea of just how much and how often this virus will mutate. I think we all have a vested interest in the answers.

From what I understand of these RNA vaccines the initially producing them part was the easy bit. Since scientists know which part of the genome codes for surface proteins in related viruses it was relatively straightforward to isolate that chunk of genetic information in this case. If Covid-19 had a mortality rate a magnitude higher I suspect they would have just started rolling vaccines out back in April/May after basic testing.

I also suspect that the fact the vaccine targets a specific protein means researchers do have a reasonable guess on how likely a mutation could be to develop that gets around the vaccine.

They have the code for the chunk of virus that makes that protein, it's relatively short, so projecting copying error rates could give a ballpark for how many duplications it would likely take for a different enough protein to emerge.

That's all my assumption though.

It's not just transcription (copying) error rates • number of hosts • number of susceptible host cells though. It's what other pressures are present, and the structure of both the protein* and the viral nucleic acids (RNA vs DNA, how protective the capsid is, etc). Otherwise all viruses would have ~ the same mutation rate. Far from it.

As for the seasonal flu, the live virus versions have to go though full phase I-III trials (albeit small, no more than 300 people required per trial), while inactivated virus updates require post-hoc studies to not be pulled. While the FDA should treat mRNA vaccines like inactivated virus flu vaccines, that's entirely in the hands of bureaucrats right now.

* eg, how many mutations are even possible without making the resulting not even virions, or how many codons can code for a particular amino acid without wrecking the geometry and making the resulting virions unviable, etc. There are a LOT of ways that mutations can just make garbage. The most successful viruses (eg rhinoviruses, HIV, influenza) have specific proteins and sections of proteins that viable mutations are confined to, and then little inbuilt protection against mutation. Coronaviruses, on the other hand, are more resistant to mutation. The lipid layer does a damn good job, but it also constrains viable Spike mutations. I read somewhere that researchers weren't expecting B117 or the South African variant, which have something like 23 or 26 nucleotide changes, for quite a while longer. Buy stock in Moderna and Pfizer, they're going to be making these vaccines for a WHILE. I don't have a good sense how long it'll take Astra-Zeneca or other viral-vector traditional vaccines to adapt.

Who cares about figuring out vaccine distribution plans, mask mandates, or the fact that the hospitals in the state are overwhelmed, this is what’s important.

FUCK! They are sending out "prayers" but not "thoughts!" People need both! Attention to detail you dumb motherfuckers!
Oh wait - maybe the thoughts come 21 days after the prayers.

Fuck me, he posted something actually funny!!!

Separation of church and state in action.

Uh, oh.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/...t-as-cases-fall-but-positive-test-rate-rises/

Damn, that level of positives definitely indicates a lot of untested cases being out there. Keep safe.

Over 4,100 COVID deaths in the US today. Remember when we were only losing a 9/11 worth of people a day?

@Paladin is overjoyed.

4 co-workers in one of the other teams where i work tested positive for Covid-19 and as well as one of the people in the office...

American Carnage. That's what we are seeing now.