Brexit now leading by 10 points

From The Week

How Brexit shattered progressives' dearest illusions
It's perfectly reasonable to worry about what will happen after Britain's historic vote to break up with the European Union. Will Brexit provoke Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede from the United Kingdom, leading to its dissolution? Will it embolden other members of the EU to bolt? And will those secessionist movements empower unsavory characters who end up being seduced by Vladimir Putin and modeling themselves on his form of authoritarian populism? Will the dire short-term economic consequences of Brexit create chaos and recession in the long term, too?

As I said, lots of reasons to worry.

But what we've seen from a wide range of writers and analysts in the days since the Brexit vote is not necessarily worry. It is shock. Fury. Disgust. Despair. A faith has been shaken, illusions shattered, pieties punctured. This is what happens when a life-orienting system of belief gets smashed on the rocks of history.

The name of that shattered system of belief? Progressivism.​

He's got a very good closing, too.

Yeah, that's very true, I'd not really given much thought to London. I've actually seen a couple of MPs whipping up North/South resentment since the vote.

I actually think in a bizarre way if you live outside of the capital you have more of an accurate idea of the vibe within the country. London doesn't have to concern itself with the current feeling or strife in Bumblefuck, Yorkshire and so forgets - or doesn't care - that any impact of change may be different. The same can't be said the other way around, you can't avoid news and influence from other places.

Just watching Question Time, and wow did none of these Brexit voters actually live in the UK in the 80's? I remember being in England and Ireland for annual family visits and, well it was pretty bad. Most people had no money, crime was very high, services where almost nonresistant, and lots of people drove these funny plastic three wheel cars.
Do they really view those as the good old days and something to get back to?

Well, it's been an interesting week or so. I was on the continent as it happens so I missed the vote itself. Let's hope it doesn't make such trips problematic in the future. It seems my prediction was incorrect.

The fallout on UK politics has been very interesting as well. Both main parties are in chaos, although Labour's wounds are entirely self-inflicted. Still, the next few months are likely to have plenty of twists and turns.

A neighbor of mine growing up owned a Sterling, as they were called in US, and another owned a Rover 3500. I think Thatcher killing the UK auto industry was a mercy killing.

From the Atlantic, the best analysis of the Brexit division in Britain that I've seen.

This fluidity in class identity, however, contrasts sharply with the fierce ethnic rivalry within this ancient kingdom. The Norman conquest of England in the 11th century left deep scars and created divisions between the Norman invaders and the local Anglo-Saxon population that continue to this day.

The persistence of legends like Robin Hood and Ivanhoe, describing native Anglo-Saxon resistance to the Normans, attests to this fact. When Anglo-Saxons in Britain today look at the EU, they don’t see a modern political union but the lingering face of Norman occupation. The persistence of this ancient Norman/Anglo-Saxon rivalry in modern-day Britain manifests itself most fiercely today in the realm of soccerball, which is a local sport played on grass fields. The local championship is followed by millions of zealous fans who support their teams religiously. It is dominated by Anglo-Saxon teams like Manchester United, Liverpool, and Newcastle; as well as the Norman clubs Chelsea, Tottenham Spurs, and above all, Arsenal.​

It's futile to try and unify such diverse peoples with such bitter hatreds.

Surprisingly amusing for an American article on the UK.

... aaaaand the next rat is leaving the sinking ship. Wow, Farage. Another screaming populist who knows how to take responsibility. First, try to destroy. Second, in case of inconvenient success, flee.

What a bunch of cowardly pissants. However, this should strengthen the Brexitexiteers. Cooler heads, regrets, danger of UK breakup? There, enough reasons to ask a second time, lose face but keep EU membership.

Awww now the butthurt millenials will have to find someone else who has children to send death threats to.

What are the odds that Whangland is still in the EU come 2020?

I wish more politicians would do this.

Unlike others, he has a proper job to go back to.

Given the utter vacuum of leadership, it's time for the Queen to step in and send the Article 50 notification to the EU.

Given he has zero power, I'm unsure what responsibility he's running from. There's been quite a bit of demands for the unelected Farage to have some political influence, usually by people who complain about the media influence he enjoys.

Problem is, the biggest reason to leave the EU hasn't changed. Namely, the EU. Until it decides to change from something perpetually avoiding the pull of political gravity, and actually starts acting like a responsible bloc, it'd like be like reattaching a lead weight to a swimmer.

Has Theresa May or any other actual candidate for PM definitely said yet that they're going to go through with Leave?

Is it okay to send death threats to people without children?

Yeah, they've pretty much all said Brexit must go ahead, with the exception of Fox, who suggested a second referendum. He won't make it past Wednesday in the race though.

So far the Remains hopes appear to be pinned on Mishcon de Reya forcing Parliament into a debate, and seeing what happens if it's put to a vote. That would be interesting as we've a pro-EU majority of MPs, but it whether they'd go against the referendum result.

No matter how much Junker bellyaches, I can't see Article 50 being triggered for a while yet. Meanwhile the adults will talk, and the children like Junker will claim it isn't so!

To be fair he is not an MP and so really has no power to do anything.

Not a case of forcing Parliament to do anything really. They are entirely correct that legally Brexit requires an Act of Parliament. To do otherwise would be unconstitutional. The litigation is really just a method of getting the courts to confirm it so there can be no argument to the contrary.

I think Parliament has a very tough choice to make. On the one hand it can be argued that, however slim the margin, the public has given a direct instruction to Parliament to act in accordance with it's will. On the other it can be just as easily argued that we democratically elect our MPs to represent us and overall make decisions that are, in their judgment, in our best interests and are taken on a more informed basis than that of the man on the street - and let's face it, the number of voters in the referendum who actually approach the vote with the benefit of knowledge and reasoning was probably a minority of people in both Leave and Remain camps. I could easily see MPs voting against a bill that seeks to repeal the EC Act of 1972 on the basis that it is an exercise of their democratic representation.[/quote]

I have a hunch that since UKIP have no real reason to exist anymore (well, at least not if Brexit does indeed happen) he is positioning himself to join the Tory party so he can run for a seat.

Who will be talking to whom and about what?

There seems to be a conviction among Brexiters that in the Brussels corridors they are busy knee deep in secret squirrel negotiations.

While I have no doubt that unofficial conversations are taking place, I'm not convinced that any solid dialogue will take place until the domestic issues in Britain are resolved, that is until the main party leaderships are resolved and issues like Parliamentary consent are addressed. Hell, we aren't even yet sure that there won't be a general election called by the end of the year. We don't yet have a Parliamentary mandate. We have two of the chief architects of the Brexit throwing in the towel already, with the third in Gove unlikely to end up in No.10. Hell, we are likely to end up with a Remain Prime Minister if May wins and despite her claims that she will push Brexit through that is by no means assured. If I were in Brussels I wouldn't be treating the referendum result as a guarantee of Brexit at all. Junker's childish toy throwing aside, I think that most in Europe with a brain will actually calm down soon and watch with interest as things play out in the UK domestically.

Parliament is in a very dangerous position if they don't follow through with Brexit. It's wasn't a referendum on choosing a new national anthem or whether gays can marry, it was a referendum on the power, scope, and control of government in which people were telling Parliament who was going to be in charge, London or Brussels. If Parliament ignores that then the Brexiters, no great fans of big government, will denounce the government as a sham democracy where politicians refuse to give up their perks and refuse the will of the British people on the fundamental question of government power, jurisdiction, and responsibility. In many eyes Parliament would lose its legitimacy.

That would create a yearning for the Queen's intervention, and what could be better royal PR than standing up for the British people? Perhaps she'd disband Parliament and have many of its members hung, beheaded, or drawn and quartered, just as was done hundreds of times in the past, or perhaps she'd show mercy and just stick them in the Tower for the rest of their natural lives. The Scots would no doubt rebel, and Prince Charles would support them, so there would be another bitter war ending in his banishment to France, and after a successful assassination attempt by Remain loyalists, Kate's follicly-challenged husband would assume the crown and have British forces slaughter all the Remain sympathizers and any foreigners from the EU. A continental civil war would follow, with tens of millions dying in the major battles and ethnic purges. Then Putin would invade from the east, the Scandinavians would invade from the north, the Muslims would invade from the south, and the British would invade from the west, encircling Brussels as the last of the MEPs commit suicide in their bunker. Then European insurance companies would once again be free to offer lower premiums to female drivers, saving them a ton of money on their car insurance.

We have adults in Parliament? Where the fuck have THEY been?!

Mostly Parliament well be talking amougst itself about who is in charge and what is the best strategy. I thought that was obvious.

BTW that is likely to be a lengthy process no matter how much Junckers quibbles and quivers.

Ain't that the truth.

Whatever you see as quivering, clearly it has not forced him to lay down his job, as it has the supporters of Leave.

Boris got deftly backstabbed, and rightly so, while, as I said, Farage was never an MP and so never had a seat at the table. His sole power source was using the media unless you count his rather powerless MEP seat which he resigned because he wants the UK out of the EU.

If you are going to talk about the matter at least say something sensible. Anyway, you are right that Junckers would never resign despite utterly, completely failing and creating the worst disaster in EU history, most of it being his own fault and due to his own miscalculations. Fortunately, Junckers has no shame and no sense of accountability for his actions no matter how badly he screws up. Hell, the dullard is even now doubling down on stupid demanding more power for himself and ignoring that no one wants to put him in charge of national armies or tax policies. That blind fool will do more damage to the EU than anyone else.

It has to be some measure of their desperation that the supporters of this political movement now use "one of our leaders was blackmailed into foregoing his candidacy because he was clearly corrupt" as a defence, because the alternative would be admitting that their leaders are fleeing the ship after breaking the rudder.

First, he was not my leader as I supported remain evem though O doubted the EU could be reformed, it is that far gone, but I still wanted to try. Second, the fights for leadership positions are legendary and you really do look foolish for not knowing it is a blood sport where a man has no friends and every dagger is drawn at your back. In actual democracies one is not appointed and then immune from responsibility for one's failures the way Junckers is.

Boris was most certainly back stabbed by Gove. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't have had the balls to challenge Gove irrespective. I find the idea that Boris had no choice but to concede defeat to be pretty phony.

I think I read somewhere that the Referendum Act may counter that, but it's not my bag, and you'll know far better than me, but I'm sure the various firms will appreciate Microsoft's money (as it looks like it's them who have set this ball rolling) flowing towards their coffers!

Yeah, it's not a good spot to be in. Any debate is likely to be soured by demonstrations outside, and if they do decide to ignore the referendum we're in potentially unpleasant territory. I could see anger being vented at the wrong people.