The Fourth Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread!

If I thought Trump = end-of-days I'd be really disturbed by this 538 curve. As it is I'm morbidly fascinated.

Next Tuesday will be a National IQ Test!

I, for one, am very worried about New Hampshire. Everything she needs to get to 272 (which is just the figure it happens to add up to) remains fairly solid, if somewhat closer than it was - except New Hampshire. And no one is campaigning there.

Following up on that, she gets to 272 by winning everything that 538 has her up by 3.7 or more - plus NH which they have at +2.4

If she has a good day and comes out ahead in races which are tied or she's leading by less than that 2.4 it takes her to 323 (that's adding FL, NC, and NV)

If she has a GREAT day which involves outpreforming her polls by about 3 points, then her peak seems to be 359 (28 states)

If Trump has a good day, he can get every state where he's tied, ahead, or down by less than 2 and still lose with 266. Add in NH and he makes it to 270

If he has a really GREAT day, which requires outpreforming his polls by 4 points, then 295 is probably his ceiling. (30 states)

The odds that she maxes out are still higher than that he does. The odds that she does just well enough to win is greater than he odes, but not by a lot.

The interesting thing to watch will be whether any given close state goes off away from the polling in a fashion more dramatic than what is going on elsewhere. NH and NV are places this may show up, maybe AZ

Hopefully Americans won't be dumb enough to elect an evil and corrupt crazy woman.

I suppose it's too much to ask that you post random nutjob shit in the main thread and leave this one for discussion of actual potential outcomes?

Caption contest?

The hospital is that way?

Agreed. Nothing personal @gturner, but I'm going to disagree with all your off-topic posts in this thread.

If they didn't want a lot of random clutter to accumulate in this thread, they wouldn't have made it sticky.

^Why not dial back the "random clutter" and stick to jokes and the occasional content which lately are down to at best 5 per cent each of your total posts?

He's thoroughly deranged. you can't really expect him to act otherwise.

Your republican party was torn asunder. Your religion is evaporating. Your country is in the final stages of decline. Your culture has been reduced to porn, video games and tabloids. And your people all across the globe are committing collective suicide and handing their nations over to be managed and populated by the third-world.

I understand why libtards encourage this, but it vexes me how cucks could think this is a good thing.

What do you think the ClintonBushObama establishment is going to do different this time?

Temporary situations

As was said by a foreign policy expert,

"The U.S. is just one budget agreement away from dominating the 21srt century the way it did the 20th"

There was a man who was having some difficulties with his house. It seemed that there was some issue with the roof so he called around and eventually determined that there were only a couple of contractors available to take a look. So he ask both to to come out and give him a professional opinion on what he should do. The first one identified several problems and made an extensive list of procedures to address them, along with the estimated cost of the work. The homeowner looked over the report and noticed the letterhead. "Say, aren't you related to the guy who put this roof on?"
"Yes," the contractor replied, "that was my dad. He was working with a lot of hostile people and their were problems"
The homeowner says "I'm not sure I want to deal with someone who is in any way connected to making this mess, I'm going to consider what the other guy has to say."

Other guy shows up the next day, walks around the property a bit and says "I say we burn the whole mother-fucker down. It's a dump! A disaster! I can't believe you'd ever set foot in this thing! We'll blow it up and I'll build you another one it'll be great! Everyone says this place is a wreck, no one likes it! Many people will tell you I can build the best houses, it'll be awesome, so great it will make your head spin!"
The owner says "That seems kind of extreme. Have you done this a lot?"
Guy says "well not houses, no. Never build a house, or burned one down - but I blow up stuff all the time! Yuge explosions. People talk about my blasts all the time, I'm well known for it. Trust me, It'll be great!"

The homeowner had a great deal of thinking to do because the choice was so close...

right...?

Poor Froggy McFuckface, there is no help for you.

Suicide might work though.

Relax already, Steve. That squiggle has...

Aww shucks, mark. That faggot mouth of yours is giving me a rock-hard boner! I bet you suck cock like a champ. You dirty queen!!

Besides, 538 is a rather extreme outlier. Other credible projection models, including those with as good a track record as 538, all have Clinton at 85%+ to win. In particular, 538's state-by-state projections seem off, giving Trump real chances to win assorted solid-blue states that no one else gives him a chance to win, and the 538 model assumes that model error is symmetrical, i.e. deviation from poll projections is equally likely in either direction, which, given the facts that Hispanic turnout is already outpacing projections and that the Clinton campaign has vastly superior get-out-the-vote capabilities seems rather unlikely.

Basically, if anyone is willing to give you Clinton at 2-1 odds in her favor, jump all over that bet.

Please tell me that this isn't real, that the election isn't actually this close. I can't take it.

If Trump wins, I'm checkin' out. I'm saying goodbye to the West and going full Chinese Communist. You never go full Communist. But then again, you never go full Trump, either.

The world is upside down.

With Liet's objection noted, I watch the 538 model particularly because I want the most pessimistic take out there. As long as they are marginally Clinton and EVERY other model is to the left of that, then I'm prepared for a night in which I'm more likely to be pleased than disappointed.

So using their point of view, let's take a look at a nervous night for someone who wants Trump to lose. Since I'm CST I'll just roll with that. Having cast my vote and sat down to obsessively refresh page after page in order to know when I can relax.

Not all of these will declare a winner right off but many can be called pretty fast
5 CST - Indiana: Trump takes the early lead with 11 votes
6 CST - Georgia, SC, KY, NH, VT and most of Florida close ...Florida is too close to call early, and on the rest Trump leads 48-16 (for the sake of this drama I gave NH to Trump because I'm describing the most stressful possibility)
6:30 - NC, WV, and Ohio close - Trump leaps out 71-16, NC joins FL in too-close-to-call-yet
7 CST - Everything east of the MS is closed now, except NY and Wisconsin. For maximum drama, FL and NC are still close, but on called states Clinton now trails 127-156. The Clinton fan is aware that including states she can't lose, she's got as many as 236 in the bank)
7:30 - toss Arkansas into the Trump column and he's up to 162
8 CST - NY, Wisconsin, and LA close, along with MN and six western states. Arizona joins FL and NC in the toss-up column (along with Nebraska-2) but of the called states, it's Clinton 190 to Trump 183 (Clinton fans note that the Pacific coast states will take her to 268 when they close)

At this point I'm thinking that if AZ, FL, or NC falls for Clinton, she's won. If neither do, then Nevada is the one you need to save her.

9 CST - the rest of the inland states close. All but Nevada go Trump, and that one EV from Nebraska slides into Trumps column. There are now 4 closed states uncalled (AZ, NV, FL, and NC) and the remaining unclosed states are a foregone conclusion. And that leaves the count standing at:
Clinton - 268
Trump - 209
If Trump wins all of them, he wins - if Clinton wins any one of them, she wins.

Possibly, of course, one or both of the eastern states may have been called by this point.

This isn't my prediction for the contest, but even in this dark view of election night, I'm still inclined to think that Nevada, at least, saves her ass. I wouldn't be shocked if she won all four. And NH. So at a minimum she wins with 272, maximum (that's realistic within the framework of the 538 model) of 334
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OTOH, here's what a good night that's wrapped up early looks like:

5 CST - Indiana: Trump takes the early lead with 11 votes
6 CST - Georgia, SC, KY, NH, VT and most of Florida close ...Florida is too close to call early, and on the rest Trump leads 44-20
6:30 - NC, WV, and Ohio close - Trump leaps out 67-20, NC joins FL in too-close-to-call-yet
7 CST - Everything east of the MS is closed now, except NY and Wisconsin, along with TX, OK, MO and SD. Clinton -132, Trump - 151
Trump haters note that deep blue states get her to 254. All eyes are on NC and Florida, if either go to Clinton the rest of the night is a foregone conclusion. By 8 PM CST I'm likely to know the answer to that.
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The difference in these two scenarios is New Hampshire. If it goes Clinton, I'm feeling pretty good - if it goes Trump, I may be on edge until Nevada is called.

Wasn't this pretty much Obama's campaign? Fundamentally change everything from the ground up? When HE said, everybody thought it was a good thing.

I don't believe the two are comparable. Obama, like Clinton, had specific proposals "we should do this, in this way, expecting this result"

So did the Republicans in previous years. Trump not so much.

I would say only his supporters thought it was a good thing.

For all the fluff, Obama's platform was mostly a continuation of standard Democratic progressive policies.

Similarly, for all the bombast, Trump would be basically just a continuation of conservative policies, with a few extra insanities like NATO-skepticism.

Yeah, I'm seriously considering hitailing to the border and giving this country the middle finger.

Notwithstanding the usual "Republicans won; I'm moving to Canada" trope, the Economist did a couple articles last week about how Canada is basically the greatest country in the world right now. Worth looking into.

Liberty moves north

Oh, it's still in my hat even if HRC wins. You can unring the bell that's come out in light of this election in almost every aspect of life.

If Trump wins, would I get to claim refugee status?

Many are praying that every Hillary supporter flees the country if Trump wins.

I'd like to draw a line down the center of the country. I'd let libshits choose which side they wanted to occupy. We'd shake hands and part ways. The divorce is overdue.

Do you lazy, retarded fuckups want the east coast or west coast? Enjoy!